Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
31
Down 68%
2 arb excluded
$7.1K
$451.41
Smart Money Signal
20 of 31 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$27.63 | 59% 62320-43496 (105816) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $874.17 | $883 | +$8.83 | 93% 23670-1781 (25451) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 60.2¢ | $490.39 | $514.38 | +$23.99 | 55% 15558-12981 (28539) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 60.2¢ | $366.97 | $449.08 | +$82.11 | 55% 8696-7157 (15853) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 70.3¢ | $334.14 | $342.29 | +$8.14 | 50% 5323-5411 (10734) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $262.73 | $371.53 | +$108.81 | 55% 17960-14547 (32507) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 64.8¢ | $289.39 | $264.84 | -$24.55 | 56% 13818-10969 (24787) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $20.96 | — | -$20.96 | 63% 52032-30695 (82727) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 70.1¢ | $309.02 | $237.56 | -$71.46 | 57% 12528-9642 (22170) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 66.8¢ | $212.07 | $224.44 | +$12.37 | 66% 99231-51435 (150666) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Downavg 57.9¢ | $181.67 | $186 | +$4.34 | 59% 23240-16339 (39579) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.9¢ | $107.73 | $186 | +$78.27 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.7¢ | $73.94 | — | -$73.94 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 62.9¢ | $148.6 | $189.03 | +$43.79 | 55% 7496-6159 (13655) |
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100 | Upavg 34.5¢ | $106.71 | $77 | -$29.71 | 54% 8088-6779 (14867) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66.9¢ | $51.48 | $77 | +$25.52 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.5¢ | $55.23 | — | -$55.23 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 65.1¢ | $82.46 | $105.01 | +$22.55 | 57% 12084-9068 (21152) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $60.4 | $88 | +$27.6 | 60% 12299-8135 (20434) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 64.6¢ | $58.75 | $85 | +$26.25 | 55% 23945-19338 (43283) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 72¢ | $72 | $100 | +$28 | 56% 58175-44902 (103077) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $47.17 | — | -$47.17 | 58% 37968-27204 (65172) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 86.6¢ | $51.41 | $52.11 | +$0.7 | 66% 126008-64883 (190891) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $35.31 | $92.91 | +$57.6 | 48% 23324-25663 (48987) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 51.7¢ | $42.03 | — | -$42.03 | 59% 6836-4788 (11624) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 58.6¢ | $36.72 | $38.38 | +$25.85 | 64% 23481-12947 (36428) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $64.03 | — | -$64.03 | 74% 102623-36437 (139060) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $9.54 | $12 | +$2.46 | 49% 78046-81554 (159600) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 2.2¢ | $4.5 | — | -$4.5 | 46% 38165-45073 (83238) |
Invested
$2,786.56
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$27.63
Record
59%
62320-43496 (105816)
Invested
$874.17
Value
$883
PnL
+$8.83
Record
93%
23670-1781 (25451)
Invested
$490.39
Value
$514.38
PnL
+$23.99
Record
55%
15558-12981 (28539)
machinelearnedInvested
$366.97
Value
$449.08
PnL
+$82.11
Record
55%
8696-7157 (15853)
Invested
$334.14
Value
$342.29
PnL
+$8.14
Record
50%
5323-5411 (10734)
Invested
$262.73
Value
$371.53
PnL
+$108.81
Record
55%
17960-14547 (32507)
Invested
$289.39
Value
$264.84
PnL
-$24.55
Record
56%
13818-10969 (24787)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$20.96
Value
—
PnL
-$20.96
Record
63%
52032-30695 (82727)
FairValueMachineInvested
$309.02
Value
$237.56
PnL
-$71.46
Record
57%
12528-9642 (22170)
Invested
$212.07
Value
$224.44
PnL
+$12.37
Record
66%
99231-51435 (150666)
Invested
$181.67
Value
$186
PnL
+$4.34
Record
59%
23240-16339 (39579)
Both legs:
Invested
$148.6
Value
$189.03
PnL
+$43.79
Record
55%
7496-6159 (13655)
Invested
$106.71
Value
$77
PnL
-$29.71
Record
54%
8088-6779 (14867)
Both legs:
Invested
$82.46
Value
$105.01
PnL
+$22.55
Record
57%
12084-9068 (21152)
Invested
$60.4
Value
$88
PnL
+$27.6
Record
60%
12299-8135 (20434)
Invested
$58.75
Value
$85
PnL
+$26.25
Record
55%
23945-19338 (43283)
Invested
$72
Value
$100
PnL
+$28
Record
56%
58175-44902 (103077)
Invested
$47.17
Value
—
PnL
-$47.17
Record
58%
37968-27204 (65172)
Invested
$51.41
Value
$52.11
PnL
+$0.7
Record
66%
126008-64883 (190891)
Invested
$35.31
Value
$92.91
PnL
+$57.6
Record
48%
23324-25663 (48987)
Invested
$42.03
Value
—
PnL
-$42.03
Record
59%
6836-4788 (11624)
Invested
$36.72
Value
$38.38
PnL
+$25.85
Record
64%
23481-12947 (36428)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$64.03
Value
—
PnL
-$64.03
Record
74%
102623-36437 (139060)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$9.54
Value
$12
PnL
+$2.46
Record
49%
78046-81554 (159600)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$4.5
Value
—
PnL
-$4.5
Record
46%
38165-45073 (83238)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $2.8K
hoodquant
Down — $883
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $514.38
machinelearned
Down — $449.08
ply-pm0
Down — $342.29
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $371.53
GoodFallen
Down — $264.84
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRUp — $0
FairValueMachine
Down — $237.56
Bonereaper
Down — $224.44