Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET
Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
32
Up 80%
1 arb excluded
$5.8K
-$128.45
Smart Money Signal
25 of 32 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.5 | 93% 23670-1781 (25451) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 70.1¢ | $513.95 | $510.41 | -$3.54 | 55% 15558-12981 (28539) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 74.5¢ | $440.17 | $484.93 | +$44.76 | 66% 99231-51435 (150666) |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Downavg 43.8¢ | $600 | — | -$600 | 38% 184-298 (482) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 77.2¢ | $331.63 | $305.82 | -$25.81 | 55% 8696-7157 (15853) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 67.4¢ | $265.83 | $270 | +$4.17 | 50% 5323-5411 (10734) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67.4¢ | $182.1 | $270 | +$87.9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 24.6¢ | $83.73 | — | -$83.73 | |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 71.6¢ | $275.92 | $289.99 | +$14.07 | 56% 13818-10969 (24787) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 99¢ | $259.97 | $262.6 | +$2.63 | 46% 38165-45073 (83238) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 72.2¢ | $239.09 | $262.11 | +$23.01 | 57% 12528-9642 (22170) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 78.6¢ | $219.11 | $215.33 | -$3.79 | 54% 8088-6779 (14867) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $239.57 | $213.71 | -$25.86 | 74% 102623-36437 (139060) |
 ohioism | Upavg 77.3¢ | $170 | $220 | +$50 | 64% 40191-22989 (63180) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 53.9¢ | $156.32 | $290 | +$133.68 | 57% 7965-6118 (14083) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 59.6¢ | $148.7 | $249.67 | +$100.97 | 34% 18852-35845 (54697) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 97¢ | $145.5 | $150 | +$4.5 | 58% 60643-44275 (104918) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 77¢ | $115.48 | $149.98 | +$34.5 | 56% 58175-44902 (103077) |
13 13897651 | Upavg 56.9¢ | $109.66 | $178.53 | +$68.87 | 59% 6836-4788 (11624) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 76.8¢ | $99.96 | $106.37 | +$6.4 | 55% 7496-6159 (13655) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 77.2¢ | $74.58 | $91.6 | +$17.02 | 60% 12299-8135 (20434) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 69.5¢ | $80.25 | $100 | +$19.75 | 57% 12084-9068 (21152) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 91.9¢ | $87.63 | $86.71 | -$0.92 | 52% 90492-85022 (175514) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 69.3¢ | $58.77 | $84.77 | +$26 | 55% 23945-19338 (43283) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $56 | $61.56 | +$9.07 | 61% 95091-59995 (155086) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $36.09 | $48.8 | +$12.71 | 66% 126008-64883 (190891) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 71.2¢ | $42.73 | $60 | +$17.27 | 64% 23481-12947 (36428) |
Invested
$1,138.5
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.5
Record
93%
23670-1781 (25451)
Invested
$513.95
Value
$510.41
PnL
-$3.54
Record
55%
15558-12981 (28539)
Invested
$440.17
Value
$484.93
PnL
+$44.76
Record
66%
99231-51435 (150666)
Invested
$600
Value
—
PnL
-$600
Record
38%
184-298 (482)
machinelearnedInvested
$331.63
Value
$305.82
PnL
-$25.81
Record
55%
8696-7157 (15853)
Invested
$265.83
Value
$270
PnL
+$4.17
Record
50%
5323-5411 (10734)
Both legs:
Invested
$275.92
Value
$289.99
PnL
+$14.07
Record
56%
13818-10969 (24787)
pspspsps5Invested
$259.97
Value
$262.6
PnL
+$2.63
Record
46%
38165-45073 (83238)
FairValueMachineInvested
$239.09
Value
$262.11
PnL
+$23.01
Record
57%
12528-9642 (22170)
Invested
$219.11
Value
$215.33
PnL
-$3.79
Record
54%
8088-6779 (14867)
BoneOhioInvested
$239.57
Value
$213.71
PnL
-$25.86
Record
74%
102623-36437 (139060)
ohioismInvested
$170
Value
$220
PnL
+$50
Record
64%
40191-22989 (63180)
Invested
$156.32
Value
$290
PnL
+$133.68
Record
57%
7965-6118 (14083)
Invested
$148.7
Value
$249.67
PnL
+$100.97
Record
34%
18852-35845 (54697)
Invested
$145.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$4.5
Record
58%
60643-44275 (104918)
Invested
$115.48
Value
$149.98
PnL
+$34.5
Record
56%
58175-44902 (103077)
Invested
$109.66
Value
$178.53
PnL
+$68.87
Record
59%
6836-4788 (11624)
Invested
$99.96
Value
$106.37
PnL
+$6.4
Record
55%
7496-6159 (13655)
Invested
$74.58
Value
$91.6
PnL
+$17.02
Record
60%
12299-8135 (20434)
Invested
$80.25
Value
$100
PnL
+$19.75
Record
57%
12084-9068 (21152)
Invested
$87.63
Value
$86.71
PnL
-$0.92
Record
52%
90492-85022 (175514)
Invested
$58.77
Value
$84.77
PnL
+$26
Record
55%
23945-19338 (43283)
Invested
$56
Value
$61.56
PnL
+$9.07
Record
61%
95091-59995 (155086)
Invested
$36.09
Value
$48.8
PnL
+$12.71
Record
66%
126008-64883 (190891)
Invested
$42.73
Value
$60
PnL
+$17.27
Record
64%
23481-12947 (36428)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $1.1K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $510.41
Bonereaper
Up — $484.93
Imgonnadoit
CTRDown — $0
machinelearned
Up — $305.82
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
GoodFallen
Up — $289.99
pspspsps5
Up — $262.6
FairValueMachine
Up — $262.11
sfkjbsr457
Up — $215.33