Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
25
Up 83%
1 arb excluded
$2.7K
$144.42
Smart Money Signal
21 of 25 top traders (84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98¢ | $590.94 | $603 | +$12.06 | 93% 23670-1781 (25451) |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Downavg 43.1¢ | $300 | — | -$300 | 38% 184-298 (482) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 73.3¢ | $255.78 | $348.86 | +$93.08 | 55% 17960-14547 (32507) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 75.8¢ | $170.5 | $225 | +$54.5 | 55% 8696-7157 (15853) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 81.5¢ | $155.63 | $168.59 | +$12.96 | 54% 8088-6779 (14867) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 72.6¢ | $140.71 | $152.49 | +$11.78 | 56% 13818-10969 (24787) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 59.5¢ | $79.32 | $133.31 | +$53.99 | 51% 17143-16661 (33804) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 74.3¢ | $119.92 | $139.27 | +$19.35 | 59% 23240-16339 (39579) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 30.7¢ | $155.9 | $100.3 | -$55.6 | 55% 15558-12981 (28539) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 74.3¢ | $74.5 | $100.3 | +$25.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.7¢ | $81.4 | — | -$81.4 | |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 73¢ | $107.68 | $88.44 | -$19.25 | 66% 99231-51435 (150666) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 77.5¢ | $85.91 | $88 | +$2.19 | 55% 7496-6159 (13655) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 76.7¢ | $86.76 | $90 | +$3.24 | 57% 12528-9642 (22170) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $74.88 | $78 | +$3.12 | 49% 78046-81554 (159600) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 61.4¢ | $61.8 | $82.92 | +$21.13 | 50% 5323-5411 (10734) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $62.07 | $88 | +$25.93 | 60% 12299-8135 (20434) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 84.1¢ | $50.47 | $59.99 | +$9.52 | 64% 23481-12947 (36428) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR | Downavg 8¢ | $216.03 | — | +$53.07 | 48% 23324-25663 (48987) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 54.9¢ | $43.36 | $79 | +$35.64 | 57% 7965-6118 (14083) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $32 | $49.99 | +$18 | 57% 12084-9068 (21152) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 55.8¢ | $34.64 | $62.04 | +$27.4 | 59% 6836-4788 (11624) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 76.6¢ | $12.5 | $16.32 | +$3.82 | 66% 126008-64883 (190891) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $12.2 | $20 | +$7.8 | 55% 23945-19338 (43283) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $10.56 | $11.36 | +$0.8 | 46% 38165-45073 (83238) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $4.18 | — | -$4.18 | 63% 52032-30695 (82727) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 17¢ | $1.52 | — | -$1.52 | 52% 90492-85022 (175514) |
Invested
$590.94
Value
$603
PnL
+$12.06
Record
93%
23670-1781 (25451)
Invested
$300
Value
—
PnL
-$300
Record
38%
184-298 (482)
Invested
$255.78
Value
$348.86
PnL
+$93.08
Record
55%
17960-14547 (32507)
machinelearnedInvested
$170.5
Value
$225
PnL
+$54.5
Record
55%
8696-7157 (15853)
Invested
$155.63
Value
$168.59
PnL
+$12.96
Record
54%
8088-6779 (14867)
Invested
$140.71
Value
$152.49
PnL
+$11.78
Record
56%
13818-10969 (24787)
Invested
$79.32
Value
$133.31
PnL
+$53.99
Record
51%
17143-16661 (33804)
Invested
$119.92
Value
$139.27
PnL
+$19.35
Record
59%
23240-16339 (39579)
Invested
$155.9
Value
$100.3
PnL
-$55.6
Record
55%
15558-12981 (28539)
Both legs:
Invested
$107.68
Value
$88.44
PnL
-$19.25
Record
66%
99231-51435 (150666)
Invested
$85.91
Value
$88
PnL
+$2.19
Record
55%
7496-6159 (13655)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$86.76
Value
$90
PnL
+$3.24
Record
57%
12528-9642 (22170)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$74.88
Value
$78
PnL
+$3.12
Record
49%
78046-81554 (159600)
Invested
$61.8
Value
$82.92
PnL
+$21.13
Record
50%
5323-5411 (10734)
Invested
$62.07
Value
$88
PnL
+$25.93
Record
60%
12299-8135 (20434)
Invested
$50.47
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$9.52
Record
64%
23481-12947 (36428)
Invested
$216.03
Value
—
PnL
+$53.07
Record
48%
23324-25663 (48987)
Invested
$43.36
Value
$79
PnL
+$35.64
Record
57%
7965-6118 (14083)
Invested
$32
Value
$49.99
PnL
+$18
Record
57%
12084-9068 (21152)
Invested
$34.64
Value
$62.04
PnL
+$27.4
Record
59%
6836-4788 (11624)
Invested
$12.5
Value
$16.32
PnL
+$3.82
Record
66%
126008-64883 (190891)
Invested
$12.2
Value
$20
PnL
+$7.8
Record
55%
23945-19338 (43283)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$10.56
Value
$11.36
PnL
+$0.8
Record
46%
38165-45073 (83238)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$4.18
Value
—
PnL
-$4.18
Record
63%
52032-30695 (82727)
Invested
$1.52
Value
—
PnL
-$1.52
Record
52%
90492-85022 (175514)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $603
Imgonnadoit
CTRDown — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $348.86
machinelearned
Up — $225
sfkjbsr457
Up — $168.59
GoodFallen
Up — $152.49
gansinimen
Up — $133.31
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Up — $139.27
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
Up — $88.44