Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 58%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

-$377.15

Smart Money Signal

14 of 26 top traders (54%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares6,563

Combined PnL+$104.8

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,491

Combined PnL-$481.95

Up — 54%Down — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	-$2.6	59% 62320-43496 (105816)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 43.5¢	$274.64	$332.61	+$57.97	55% 15558-12981 (28539)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.3¢	$130.08	—	-$130.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.5¢	$144.56	$332.61	+$188.05
machinelearned	Upavg 78¢	$294.85	$229.4	-$65.45	55% 8696-7157 (15853)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 74.8¢	$212.6	$216.17	+$3.57	54% 8088-6779 (14867)
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Downavg 41.7¢	$130	—	-$130	38% 184-298 (482)
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 47.7¢	$163.47	—	-$163.47	57% 12528-9642 (22170)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 68.4¢	$190.79	$189.77	-$1.03	50% 5323-5411 (10734)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 52.6¢	$154.78	$174.42	+$19.64	56% 13818-10969 (24787)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42¢	$62.97	—	-$62.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.6¢	$91.8	$174.42	+$82.61
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 52.7¢	$122.47	$159.76	+$37.29	66% 99231-51435 (150666)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.1¢	$38.26	—	-$38.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.7¢	$84.21	$159.76	+$75.55
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 61.1¢	$150.68	$169.38	+$18.7	59% 23240-16339 (39579)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.1¢	$103.48	$169.38	+$65.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 59¢	$47.2	—	-$47.2
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 89.4¢	$268.15	$300	+$31.85	48% 23324-25663 (48987)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 12.9¢	$18.83	—	-$18.83	66% 112264-58747 (171011)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 70¢	$79.98	$88	+$8.02	55% 7496-6159 (13655)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 50.8¢	$100.52	$187.22	+$86.7	58% 37968-27204 (65172)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.8¢	$95.09	$187.22	+$92.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 15¢	$5.43	—	-$5.43
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Upavg 84.4¢	$121.55	$96.15	-$25.4	55% 17960-14547 (32507)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.4¢	$40.35	—	-$40.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.4¢	$81.2	$96.15	+$14.95
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 47.8¢	$66.77	$115	+$48.23	57% 7965-6118 (14083)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 64¢	$64	—	-$64	56% 58175-44902 (103077)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 80.3¢	$67.61	$60	-$6.98	64% 23481-12947 (36428)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 98¢	$46.06	$47	+$0.94	93% 23670-1781 (25451)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 64¢	$40.97	—	-$40.97	64% 40191-22989 (63180)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 50.8¢	$33.73	—	-$33.73	59% 6836-4788 (11624)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 59.4¢	$48.89	$72.89	+$24	57% 12084-9068 (21152)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 40.8¢	$73.8	$90.74	+$62.82	51% 20126-19292 (39418)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 76.7¢	$50.92	$60.11	+$9.2	60% 12299-8135 (20434)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 99¢	$27.47	$25	-$2.47	52% 90492-85022 (175514)

0x50f7

Invested

$5,054.61

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$2.6

Record

59%

62320-43496 (105816)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$274.64

Value

$332.61

PnL

+$57.97

Record

55%

15558-12981 (28539)

Both legs:

Down$130.0837.3¢-$130.08

Up$144.5643.5¢+$188.05

machinelearned

Invested

$294.85

Value

$229.4

PnL

-$65.45

Record

55%

8696-7157 (15853)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$212.6

Value

$216.17

PnL

+$3.57

Record

54%

8088-6779 (14867)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Down

Invested

$130

Value

—

PnL

-$130

Record

38%

184-298 (482)

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$163.47

Value

—

PnL

-$163.47

Record

57%

12528-9642 (22170)

ply-pm0

Invested

$190.79

Value

$189.77

PnL

-$1.03

Record

50%

5323-5411 (10734)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$154.78

Value

$174.42

PnL

+$19.64

Record

56%

13818-10969 (24787)

Both legs:

Down$62.9742¢-$62.97

Up$91.852.6¢+$82.61

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$122.47

Value

$159.76

PnL

+$37.29

Record

66%

99231-51435 (150666)

Both legs:

Down$38.2636.1¢-$38.26

Up$84.2152.7¢+$75.55

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$150.68

Value

$169.38

PnL

+$18.7

Record

59%

23240-16339 (39579)

Both legs:

Up$103.4861.1¢+$65.9

Down$47.259¢-$47.2

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$268.15

Value

$300

PnL

+$31.85

Record

48%

23324-25663 (48987)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.83

Value

—

PnL

-$18.83

Record

66%

112264-58747 (171011)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$79.98

Value

$88

PnL

+$8.02

Record

55%

7496-6159 (13655)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$100.52

Value

$187.22

PnL

+$86.7

Record

58%

37968-27204 (65172)

Both legs:

Up$95.0950.8¢+$92.13

Down$5.4315¢-$5.43

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Invested

$121.55

Value

$96.15

PnL

-$25.4

Record

55%

17960-14547 (32507)

Both legs:

Down$40.3557.4¢-$40.35

Up$81.284.4¢+$14.95

wzbbb

Invested

$66.77

Value

$115

PnL

+$48.23

Record

57%

7965-6118 (14083)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$64

Value

—

PnL

-$64

Record

56%

58175-44902 (103077)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$67.61

Value

$60

PnL

-$6.98

Record

64%

23481-12947 (36428)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$46.06

Value

$47

PnL

+$0.94

Record

93%

23670-1781 (25451)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.97

Value

—

PnL

-$40.97

Record

64%

40191-22989 (63180)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$33.73

Value

—

PnL

-$33.73

Record

59%

6836-4788 (11624)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$48.89

Value

$72.89

PnL

+$24

Record

57%

12084-9068 (21152)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$73.8

Value

$90.74

PnL

+$62.82

Record

51%

20126-19292 (39418)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$50.92

Value

$60.11

PnL

+$9.2

Record

60%

12299-8135 (20434)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$27.47

Value

$25

PnL

-$2.47

Record

52%

90492-85022 (175514)

Smart Money Signal

14 of 26 top traders (54%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x879162c5...a06905

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793398800

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $5.1K

-$2.6

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$57.97

machinelearned

Up — $229.4

-$65.45

sfkjbsr457

Up — $216.17

Imgonnadoit

Down — $0

FairValueMachine

Down — $0

ply-pm0

Up — $189.77

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$18.7

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