Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$478.07

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 25 top traders (72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,168

Combined PnL+$663.38

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares492

Combined PnL-$185.31

Down — 72%Up — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 58.8¢	$317.28	$394.13	+$76.85	55% 15558-12981 (28539)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.8¢	$231.58	$394.13	+$162.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$85.7	—	-$85.7
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 67.2¢	$228.79	$213.46	-$15.32	50% 5323-5411 (10734)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 70.8¢	$193.48	$203.81	+$10.34	59% 23240-16339 (39579)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 51¢	$152.22	$200	+$47.78	55% 8696-7157 (15853)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$102	$200	+$98
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.6¢	$50.22	—	-$50.22
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 69.3¢	$185.36	$244.69	+$59.33	66% 99231-51435 (150666)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 65.8¢	$170.8	$240	+$69.2	57% 12528-9642 (22170)
LI Little-big	Downavg 63.1¢	$160.94	$255.18	+$94.24	34% 18852-35845 (54697)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 58.9¢	$105.66	$120.67	+$15.01	54% 8088-6779 (14867)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 62¢	$124.14	$131.26	+$7.12	57% 12084-9068 (21152)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62¢	$81.33	$131.26	+$49.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.8¢	$42.8	—	-$42.8
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 63.4¢	$125.15	$182.39	+$57.23	56% 13818-10969 (24787)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 56¢	$107.51	$191.98	+$84.47	58% 37968-27204 (65172)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 63.8¢	$98.32	$154	+$55.68	57% 7965-6118 (14083)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$2.3	—	-$2.3	46% 38165-45073 (83238)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 72.7¢	$68.32	$94	+$25.68	56% 58175-44902 (103077)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 62.9¢	$58.13	$79.74	+$21.61	66% 126008-64883 (190891)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$44	—	-$44	58% 60643-44275 (104918)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 46.4¢	$49.75	—	-$49.75	55% 17960-14547 (32507)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 49.6¢	$43.57	$68.85	+$27.88	55% 7496-6159 (13655)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$31.42	—	-$31.42	60% 12299-8135 (20434)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 43.1¢	$40.85	—	-$40.85	59% 6836-4788 (11624)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 53.4¢	$25.1	$47	+$21.9	64% 23481-12947 (36428)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 53.7¢	$21.63	$25.17	+$5.49	61% 95091-59995 (155086)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 82.7¢	$25.07	$30.33	+$5.26	64% 40191-22989 (63180)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 24¢	$4.8	—	-$4.8	55% 23945-19338 (43283)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 46.6¢	$12.2	—	-$12.2	52% 90492-85022 (175514)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$317.28

Value

$394.13

PnL

+$76.85

Record

55%

15558-12981 (28539)

Both legs:

Down$231.5858.8¢+$162.55

Up$85.750.4¢-$85.7

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$228.79

Value

$213.46

PnL

-$15.32

Record

50%

5323-5411 (10734)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$193.48

Value

$203.81

PnL

+$10.34

Record

59%

23240-16339 (39579)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$152.22

Value

$200

PnL

+$47.78

Record

55%

8696-7157 (15853)

Both legs:

Invested

$185.36

Value

$244.69

PnL

+$59.33

Record

66%

99231-51435 (150666)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$170.8

Value

$240

PnL

+$69.2

Record

57%

12528-9642 (22170)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$160.94

Value

$255.18

PnL

+$94.24

Record

34%

18852-35845 (54697)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$105.66

Value

$120.67

PnL

+$15.01

Record

54%

8088-6779 (14867)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$124.14

Value

$131.26

PnL

+$7.12

Record

57%

12084-9068 (21152)

Both legs:

Invested

$125.15

Value

$182.39

PnL

+$57.23

Record

56%

13818-10969 (24787)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$107.51

Value

$191.98

PnL

+$84.47

Record

58%

37968-27204 (65172)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$98.32

Value

$154

PnL

+$55.68

Record

57%

7965-6118 (14083)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

—

PnL

-$2.3

Record

46%

38165-45073 (83238)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$68.32

Value

$94

PnL

+$25.68

Record

56%

58175-44902 (103077)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$58.13

Value

$79.74

PnL

+$21.61

Record

66%

126008-64883 (190891)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$44

Value

—

PnL

-$44

Record

58%

60643-44275 (104918)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$49.75

Value

—

PnL

-$49.75

Record

55%

17960-14547 (32507)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$43.57

Value

$68.85

PnL

+$27.88

Record

55%

7496-6159 (13655)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Invested

$31.42

Value

—

PnL

-$31.42

Record

60%

12299-8135 (20434)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$40.85

Value

—

PnL

-$40.85

Record

59%

6836-4788 (11624)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$25.1

Value

$47

PnL

+$21.9

Record

64%

23481-12947 (36428)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$21.63

Value

$25.17

PnL

+$5.49

Record

61%

95091-59995 (155086)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$25.07

Value

$30.33

PnL

+$5.26

Record

64%

40191-22989 (63180)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

—

PnL

-$4.8

Record

55%

23945-19338 (43283)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$12.2

Value

—

PnL

-$12.2

Record

52%

90492-85022 (175514)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 25 top traders (72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x96622716...b44fdd

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793398500

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$76.85

ply-pm0

Down — $213.46

-$15.32

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $203.81

+$10.34

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$47.78

Bonereaper

Down — $244.69

+$59.33

FairValueMachine

Down — $240

+$69.2

Little-big

Down — $255.18

+$94.24

sfkjbsr457

Down — $120.67

+$15.01

EZTRADENL2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$7.12

GoodFallen

Down — $182.39

+$57.23

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