Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 32% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
34
Up 53%
$1.6K
$90.32
Smart Money Signal
11 of 34 top traders (32%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 machinelearned | Downavg 13.3¢ | $202.56 | $1.0K | +$800.44 | 55% 8705-7167 (15872) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Upavg 63.4¢ | $427.34 | — | -$427.09 | 55% 7508-6166 (13674) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 65.9¢ | $352.1 | $329.8 | -$22.3 | 60% 12308-8144 (20452) |
SF sfkjbsr457CTR | Upavg 66.5¢ | $271.89 | — | -$271.89 | 54% 8100-6790 (14890) |
 ohioismCTR | Upavg 69¢ | $160.07 | — | -$160.07 | 64% 40197-22999 (63196) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR | Upavg 73.5¢ | $178.07 | — | -$178.07 | 59% 23251-16346 (39597) |
SI sir-upalot | Downavg 61.2¢ | $61.2 | $100 | +$38.8 | 55% 23956-19344 (43300) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 5.3¢ | $4.08 | $76.5 | +$72.42 | 52% 90518-85062 (175580) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $41.4 | $60 | +$18.6 | 57% 10409-7811 (18220) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $13.2 | $33 | +$19.8 | 34% 18858-35853 (54711) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 52.4¢ | $21.4 | $25.38 | +$3.98 | 55% 17960-14549 (32509) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Upavg 82.2¢ | $58.2 | — | -$58.2 | 57% 12094-9077 (21171) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 20.3¢ | $10.82 | — | -$10.82 | 63% 52043-30715 (82758) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 72.4¢ | $25.71 | — | -$25.71 | 64% 23528-12966 (36494) |
IM Imgonnadoit | Downavg 35.1¢ | $190 | $0.01 | +$345.44 | 39% 191-302 (493) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100 | Downavg 52.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 55% 15568-12982 (28550) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 57.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 13825-10973 (24798) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3651-2837 (6488) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | — | — | +$0 | 66% 99251-51446 (150697) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 54.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 12538-9643 (22181) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 37996-27224 (65220) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 59% 62333-43508 (105841) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 38.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 7978-6132 (14110) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | — | — | +$0 | 65% 4082-2215 (6297) |
 NIULAI4<$100 | Downavg 68.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 77% 9464-2855 (12319) |
machinelearnedInvested
$202.56
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$800.44
Record
55%
8705-7167 (15872)
Invested
$427.34
Value
—
PnL
-$427.09
Record
55%
7508-6166 (13674)
Invested
$352.1
Value
$329.8
PnL
-$22.3
Record
60%
12308-8144 (20452)
Invested
$271.89
Value
—
PnL
-$271.89
Record
54%
8100-6790 (14890)
ohioismCTRInvested
$160.07
Value
—
PnL
-$160.07
Record
64%
40197-22999 (63196)
Invested
$178.07
Value
—
PnL
-$178.07
Record
59%
23251-16346 (39597)
Invested
$61.2
Value
$100
PnL
+$38.8
Record
55%
23956-19344 (43300)
Invested
$4.08
Value
$76.5
PnL
+$72.42
Record
52%
90518-85062 (175580)
Invested
$41.4
Value
$60
PnL
+$18.6
Record
57%
10409-7811 (18220)
Invested
$13.2
Value
$33
PnL
+$19.8
Record
34%
18858-35853 (54711)
Invested
$21.4
Value
$25.38
PnL
+$3.98
Record
55%
17960-14549 (32509)
Invested
$58.2
Value
—
PnL
-$58.2
Record
57%
12094-9077 (21171)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$10.82
Value
—
PnL
-$10.82
Record
63%
52043-30715 (82758)
Invested
$25.71
Value
—
PnL
-$25.71
Record
64%
23528-12966 (36494)
Invested
$190
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$345.44
Record
39%
191-302 (493)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
15568-12982 (28550)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
13825-10973 (24798)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3651-2837 (6488)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
99251-51446 (150697)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
12538-9643 (22181)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
37996-27224 (65220)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
62333-43508 (105841)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
7978-6132 (14110)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
4082-2215 (6297)
NIULAI4<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
77%
9464-2855 (12319)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
machinelearned
Down — $1.0K
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
CTRUp — $0
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $329.8
sfkjbsr457
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
CTRUp — $0
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
CTRUp — $0
sir-upalot
Down — $100
dvasdkasodk
Down — $76.5
trdyugiolkw
Down — $60
Little-big
Down — $33