Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
34
Up 57%
$568.02
$-1.7K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 34 top traders (29%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 44.1¢ | $211.58 | $298.99 | +$87.41 | 55% 7508-6166 (13674) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 65.2¢ | $241.26 | — | -$241.26 | 55% 8705-7167 (15872) |
SF sfkjbsr457CTR | Upavg 43.4¢ | $172.52 | — | -$172.52 | 54% 8100-6790 (14890) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Upavg 77¢ | $352.99 | — | -$352.99 | 60% 12308-8144 (20452) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 46.2¢ | $54 | $89.99 | +$35.99 | 64% 23528-12966 (36494) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 24.5¢ | $27.59 | $70.04 | +$42.45 | 52% 90518-85062 (175580) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $52.2 | $60 | +$7.8 | 57% 10409-7811 (18220) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $35.2 | $40 | +$4.8 | 55% 23956-19344 (43300) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $3.42 | $9 | +$5.58 | 64% 40197-22999 (63196) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 48.1¢ | $123.06 | — | -$123.06 | 58% 51036-37181 (88217) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $1.79 | — | -$1.79 | 63% 52043-30715 (82758) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $39.2 | — | -$39.2 | 57% 12094-9077 (21171) |
IM Imgonnadoit | Downavg 42.9¢ | $140 | $0 | -$22.4 | 39% 191-302 (493) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100 | Downavg 39.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 55% 15568-12982 (28550) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 43.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 13825-10973 (24798) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3651-2837 (6488) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 13.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 66% 99251-51446 (150697) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 42.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 12538-9643 (22181) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 55.4¢ | $1.5K | — | -$856.9 | 58% 37996-27224 (65220) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 59% 62333-43508 (105841) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 51.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 7978-6132 (14110) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 74.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 65% 4082-2215 (6297) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 36.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 5330-5421 (10751) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 78059-81564 (159623) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | — | — | +$0 | 93% 23707-1785 (25492) |
Invested
$211.58
Value
$298.99
PnL
+$87.41
Record
55%
7508-6166 (13674)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$241.26
Value
—
PnL
-$241.26
Record
55%
8705-7167 (15872)
Invested
$172.52
Value
—
PnL
-$172.52
Record
54%
8100-6790 (14890)
Invested
$352.99
Value
—
PnL
-$352.99
Record
60%
12308-8144 (20452)
Invested
$54
Value
$89.99
PnL
+$35.99
Record
64%
23528-12966 (36494)
Invested
$27.59
Value
$70.04
PnL
+$42.45
Record
52%
90518-85062 (175580)
Invested
$52.2
Value
$60
PnL
+$7.8
Record
57%
10409-7811 (18220)
Invested
$35.2
Value
$40
PnL
+$4.8
Record
55%
23956-19344 (43300)
ohioism<$100Invested
$3.42
Value
$9
PnL
+$5.58
Record
64%
40197-22999 (63196)
Invested
$123.06
Value
—
PnL
-$123.06
Record
58%
51036-37181 (88217)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$1.79
Value
—
PnL
-$1.79
Record
63%
52043-30715 (82758)
Invested
$39.2
Value
—
PnL
-$39.2
Record
57%
12094-9077 (21171)
Invested
$140
Value
$0
PnL
-$22.4
Record
39%
191-302 (493)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
15568-12982 (28550)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
13825-10973 (24798)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3651-2837 (6488)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
99251-51446 (150697)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
12538-9643 (22181)
Invested
$1,546
Value
—
PnL
-$856.9
Record
58%
37996-27224 (65220)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
62333-43508 (105841)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
7978-6132 (14110)
Atomforge<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
4082-2215 (6297)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
5330-5421 (10751)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
78059-81564 (159623)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
93%
23707-1785 (25492)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $298.99
machinelearned
CTRUp — $0
sfkjbsr457
CTRUp — $0
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $89.99
dvasdkasodk
Down — $70.04
trdyugiolkw
Down — $60
sir-upalot
Down — $40
ohioism
Down — $9
PBot-6
CTRUp — $0