Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 48%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$310.12

Smart Money Signal

12 of 25 top traders (48%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,130

Combined PnL+$473.09

Down13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,171

Combined PnL-$783.22

Up — 48%Down — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 52.5¢	$565.59	$771.69	+$206.1	55% 15558-12981 (28539)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 63.2¢	$367.39	$520.08	+$152.69	66% 99231-51435 (150666)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$45.09	—	-$45.09	59% 62320-43496 (105816)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 55.1¢	$316.87	$362.28	+$45.41	56% 13818-10969 (24787)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.1¢	$199.44	$362.28	+$162.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.5¢	$117.43	—	-$117.43
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 54.8¢	$218.42	$212.48	-$5.94	57% 12528-9642 (22170)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.8¢	$116.35	$212.48	+$96.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.5¢	$102.07	—	-$102.07
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 60.6¢	$235	$212.43	-$22.56	50% 5323-5411 (10734)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 67.5¢	$142.84	$170.33	+$27.49	60% 12299-8135 (20434)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 57.4¢	$317.97	—	-$317.97	58% 37968-27204 (65172)
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Downavg 63.5¢	$144.5	—	-$144.5	38% 184-298 (482)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 88.2¢	$146.72	$117.41	-$29.31	55% 7496-6159 (13655)
└ Up leg	Upavg 88.2¢	$103.61	$117.41	+$13.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$43.11	—	-$43.11
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 73.9¢	$78.78	$103.68	+$24.9	54% 8088-6779 (14867)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 51.8¢	$94.26	$129.04	+$34.78	57% 12084-9068 (21152)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.8¢	$66.86	$129.04	+$62.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.7¢	$27.4	—	-$27.4
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 56.9¢	$64.53	$113.32	+$48.79	59% 23240-16339 (39579)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 43¢	$64.49	—	-$64.49	64% 40191-22989 (63180)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$2.28	—	-$2.28	46% 38165-45073 (83238)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Downavg 9¢	$20.35	—	-$20.35	55% 8696-7157 (15853)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 63.3¢	$50.6	$80	+$29.4	55% 23945-19338 (43283)
13 13897651CTR	Downavg 58.8¢	$114.84	—	-$114.84	59% 6836-4788 (11624)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 75.4¢	$54.7	$59.26	+$4.56	66% 126008-64883 (190891)
SP spartacray<$100	Upavg 87.9¢	$59.01	$41.35	-$17.66	53% 27268-24233 (51501)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 87¢	$25.74	$26	+$0.26	49% 78046-81554 (159600)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 56¢	$22.4	$24.88	+$17.45	64% 23481-12947 (36428)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 64¢	$25.77	—	-$25.77	57% 7965-6118 (14083)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 10.8¢	$10.01	—	-$10.01	52% 90492-85022 (175514)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 77¢	$5.62	$7.3	+$1.68	74% 102623-36437 (139060)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$565.59

Value

$771.69

PnL

+$206.1

Record

55%

15558-12981 (28539)

Bonereaper

Invested

$367.39

Value

$520.08

PnL

+$152.69

Record

66%

99231-51435 (150666)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$45.09

Value

—

PnL

-$45.09

Record

59%

62320-43496 (105816)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$316.87

Value

$362.28

PnL

+$45.41

Record

56%

13818-10969 (24787)

Both legs:

Up$199.4455.1¢+$162.83

Down$117.4340.5¢-$117.43

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$218.42

Value

$212.48

PnL

-$5.94

Record

57%

12528-9642 (22170)

Both legs:

Up$116.3554.8¢+$96.13

Down$102.0742.5¢-$102.07

ply-pm0

Invested

$235

Value

$212.43

PnL

-$22.56

Record

50%

5323-5411 (10734)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$142.84

Value

$170.33

PnL

+$27.49

Record

60%

12299-8135 (20434)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$317.97

Value

—

PnL

-$317.97

Record

58%

37968-27204 (65172)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Down

Invested

$144.5

Value

—

PnL

-$144.5

Record

38%

184-298 (482)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$146.72

Value

$117.41

PnL

-$29.31

Record

55%

7496-6159 (13655)

Both legs:

Up$103.6188.2¢+$13.8

Down$43.1149¢-$43.11

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$78.78

Value

$103.68

PnL

+$24.9

Record

54%

8088-6779 (14867)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$94.26

Value

$129.04

PnL

+$34.78

Record

57%

12084-9068 (21152)

Both legs:

Up$66.8651.8¢+$62.18

Down$27.445.7¢-$27.4

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$64.53

Value

$113.32

PnL

+$48.79

Record

59%

23240-16339 (39579)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$64.49

Value

—

PnL

-$64.49

Record

64%

40191-22989 (63180)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.28

Value

—

PnL

-$2.28

Record

46%

38165-45073 (83238)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$20.35

Value

—

PnL

-$20.35

Record

55%

8696-7157 (15853)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$50.6

Value

$80

PnL

+$29.4

Record

55%

23945-19338 (43283)

13897651CTR

Down

Invested

$114.84

Value

—

PnL

-$114.84

Record

59%

6836-4788 (11624)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$54.7

Value

$59.26

PnL

+$4.56

Record

66%

126008-64883 (190891)

spartacray<$100

Invested

$59.01

Value

$41.35

PnL

-$17.66

Record

53%

27268-24233 (51501)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$25.74

Value

$26

PnL

+$0.26

Record

49%

78046-81554 (159600)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$22.4

Value

$24.88

PnL

+$17.45

Record

64%

23481-12947 (36428)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.77

Value

—

PnL

-$25.77

Record

57%

7965-6118 (14083)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.01

Value

—

PnL

-$10.01

Record

52%

90492-85022 (175514)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$5.62

Value

$7.3

PnL

+$1.68

Record

74%

102623-36437 (139060)

Smart Money Signal

12 of 25 top traders (48%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xef128ade...0f7e05

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793395200

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $771.69

+$206.1

Bonereaper

Up — $520.08

0x50f7

Down — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Up — $212.43

-$22.56

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $170.33

+$27.49

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

Imgonnadoit

Down — $0

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$29.31

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