Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$99.53

Smart Money Signal

15 of 21 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,843

Combined PnL+$143.33

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares911

Combined PnL-$43.8

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$22.04	59% 62320-43496 (105816)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.5¢	$986.47	$1.0K	+$14.53	93% 23670-1781 (25451)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$405.42	$369.24	-$36.18	58% 37968-27204 (65172)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$222.58	—	-$222.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$182.84	$369.24	+$186.4
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 1.3¢	$6.09	—	-$6.09	49% 78046-81554 (159600)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 96¢	$57.65	$50	-$7.65	55% 8696-7157 (15853)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 60.8¢	$206.52	$253.42	+$46.9	55% 15558-12981 (28539)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.8¢	$154.12	$253.42	+$99.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.8¢	$52.4	—	-$52.4
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 74¢	$163.95	$170.2	+$6.25	66% 99231-51435 (150666)
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.4¢	$37.95	—	-$37.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 74¢	$126	$170.2	+$44.2
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 89.7¢	$188.04	$193.6	+$5.56	54% 8088-6779 (14867)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 65.8¢	$152.16	$182.86	+$30.7	56% 13818-10969 (24787)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.8¢	$120.36	$182.86	+$62.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.3¢	$31.8	—	-$31.8
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$25.56	—	+$18.22	48% 23324-25663 (48987)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 84¢	$126	$150	+$24	58% 60643-44275 (104918)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 2.3¢	$3.43	—	-$3.43	46% 38165-45073 (83238)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 62.1¢	$66.58	$103.2	+$36.63	57% 12528-9642 (22170)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$50.6	—	-$50.6	59% 6836-4788 (11624)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 43¢	$30.72	$40	+$9.28	53% 27268-24233 (51501)
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.1¢	$13.52	—	-$13.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 43¢	$17.2	$40	+$22.8
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 94.5¢	$83.15	$87.99	+$4.84	55% 7496-6159 (13655)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Upavg 93.7¢	$41.91	$42.03	+$0.12	50% 5323-5411 (10734)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 50¢	$11.58	$18.26	+$6.68	60% 12299-8135 (20434)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 54.5¢	$32.7	$60	+$27.3	57% 12084-9068 (21152)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$23.07	$45.77	+$22.7	57% 7965-6118 (14083)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Upavg 43¢	$17.2	$40	+$22.8	59% 23240-16339 (39579)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 6.2¢	$1.9	—	-$1.9	52% 90492-85022 (175514)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 76.1¢	$17.74	$23.32	+$5.58	66% 126008-64883 (190891)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 90¢	$15.41	$17.13	+$1.72	61% 95091-59995 (155086)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 80¢	$2.24	$2.8	+$0.56	56% 58175-44902 (103077)

0x50f7

Invested

$3,030.05

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$22.04

Record

59%

62320-43496 (105816)

hoodquant

Invested

$986.47

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$14.53

Record

93%

23670-1781 (25451)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$405.42

Value

$369.24

PnL

-$36.18

Record

58%

37968-27204 (65172)

Both legs:

Down$222.5849.7¢-$222.58

Up$182.8449.5¢+$186.4

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.09

Value

—

PnL

-$6.09

Record

49%

78046-81554 (159600)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$57.65

Value

$50

PnL

-$7.65

Record

55%

8696-7157 (15853)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$206.52

Value

$253.42

PnL

+$46.9

Record

55%

15558-12981 (28539)

Both legs:

Up$154.1260.8¢+$99.3

Down$52.430.8¢-$52.4

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$163.95

Value

$170.2

PnL

+$6.25

Record

66%

99231-51435 (150666)

Both legs:

Down$37.9516.4¢-$37.95

Up$12674¢+$44.2

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$188.04

Value

$193.6

PnL

+$5.56

Record

54%

8088-6779 (14867)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$152.16

Value

$182.86

PnL

+$30.7

Record

56%

13818-10969 (24787)

Both legs:

Up$120.3665.8¢+$62.5

Down$31.835.3¢-$31.8

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.56

Value

—

PnL

+$18.22

Record

48%

23324-25663 (48987)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$126

Value

$150

PnL

+$24

Record

58%

60643-44275 (104918)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.43

Value

—

PnL

-$3.43

Record

46%

38165-45073 (83238)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$66.58

Value

$103.2

PnL

+$36.63

Record

57%

12528-9642 (22170)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$50.6

Value

—

PnL

-$50.6

Record

59%

6836-4788 (11624)

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$30.72

Value

$40

PnL

+$9.28

Record

53%

27268-24233 (51501)

Both legs:

Down$13.5224.1¢-$13.52

Up$17.243¢+$22.8

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$83.15

Value

$87.99

PnL

+$4.84

Record

55%

7496-6159 (13655)

ply-pm0<$100

Invested

$41.91

Value

$42.03

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

5323-5411 (10734)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$11.58

Value

$18.26

PnL

+$6.68

Record

60%

12299-8135 (20434)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$32.7

Value

$60

PnL

+$27.3

Record

57%

12084-9068 (21152)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$23.07

Value

$45.77

PnL

+$22.7

Record

57%

7965-6118 (14083)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Invested

$17.2

Value

$40

PnL

+$22.8

Record

59%

23240-16339 (39579)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.9

Value

—

PnL

-$1.9

Record

52%

90492-85022 (175514)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$17.74

Value

$23.32

PnL

+$5.58

Record

66%

126008-64883 (190891)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$15.41

Value

$17.13

PnL

+$1.72

Record

61%

95091-59995 (155086)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$2.24

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.56

Record

56%

58175-44902 (103077)

Smart Money Signal

15 of 21 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9d45241a...88ac5d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793394900

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $3.0K

-$22.04

hoodquant

Up — $1.0K

+$14.53

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Arbitrage — excluded

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $0

machinelearned

Up — $50

-$7.65

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Up — $193.6

+$5.56

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$30.7

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

CTR

Down — $0

+$18.22

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