Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 67%
5 arb excluded
$6.9K
$29.18
Smart Money Signal
12 of 19 top traders (63%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $5.1K | $5.1K | +$5.06 | 59% 62303-43482 (105785) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.7¢ | $404.5 | $414 | +$9.5 | 93% 23629-1777 (25406) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 72.3¢ | $246.51 | $281.15 | +$34.65 | 55% 15551-12973 (28524) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.3¢ | $203.23 | $281.15 | +$77.93 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.3¢ | $43.28 | — | -$43.28 | |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $151.66 | $168.11 | +$16.46 | 66% 99220-51430 (150650) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77¢ | $129.46 | $168.11 | +$38.66 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 22.6¢ | $22.2 | — | -$22.2 | |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 65.2¢ | $138.9 | $208.02 | +$69.12 | 56% 13809-10963 (24772) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $2.63 | — | -$2.63 | 46% 38152-45055 (83207) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $88 | $100 | +$12 | 51% 17134-16657 (33791) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 87¢ | $87 | $100 | +$13 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 1¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 80.9¢ | $104.04 | $93 | -$11.04 | 55% 8689-7147 (15836) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80.9¢ | $75.24 | $93 | +$17.76 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40¢ | $28.8 | — | -$28.8 | |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Downavg 95.2¢ | $118.44 | $120 | +$1.56 | 54% 8079-6770 (14849) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Downavg 94.4¢ | $48.04 | $49 | +$0.96 | 55% 7489-6150 (13639) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 2¢ | $1.76 | — | -$1.76 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 94.4¢ | $46.28 | $49 | +$2.72 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $80.24 | $88 | +$7.76 | 60% 12290-8128 (20418) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 76.9¢ | $49.22 | $62.07 | +$12.85 | 57% 12521-9634 (22155) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.6¢ | $38.28 | — | -$38.28 | 57% 7947-6108 (14055) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 51.6¢ | $37.32 | — | -$37.32 | 59% 6829-4778 (11607) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $2.7 | — | -$2.7 | 51% 20120-19270 (39390) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 93.6¢ | $43.83 | $46.85 | +$3.02 | 66% 125972-64860 (190832) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 94.4¢ | $40.78 | $43.2 | +$2.42 | 52% 90461-84991 (175452) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $36.42 | $40 | +$3.58 | 53% 27257-24226 (51483) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 93.8¢ | $36.8 | $39.22 | +$2.42 | 61% 95058-59969 (155027) |
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $11.7 | — | -$11.7 | 50% 5310-5406 (10716) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $17.8 | $20 | +$2.2 | 55% 23937-19330 (43267) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $7.8 | $15 | +$7.2 | 59% 23233-16335 (39568) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $4.89 | — | -$4.89 | 66% 112247-58715 (170962) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3646-2828 (6474) |
Invested
$5,057.85
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$5.06
Record
59%
62303-43482 (105785)
Invested
$404.5
Value
$414
PnL
+$9.5
Record
93%
23629-1777 (25406)
Invested
$246.51
Value
$281.15
PnL
+$34.65
Record
55%
15551-12973 (28524)
Both legs:
Invested
$151.66
Value
$168.11
PnL
+$16.46
Record
66%
99220-51430 (150650)
Both legs:
Invested
$138.9
Value
$208.02
PnL
+$69.12
Record
56%
13809-10963 (24772)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.63
Value
—
PnL
-$2.63
Record
46%
38152-45055 (83207)
Invested
$88
Value
$100
PnL
+$12
Record
51%
17134-16657 (33791)
Both legs:
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$104.04
Value
$93
PnL
-$11.04
Record
55%
8689-7147 (15836)
Both legs:
Invested
$118.44
Value
$120
PnL
+$1.56
Record
54%
8079-6770 (14849)
Invested
$48.04
Value
$49
PnL
+$0.96
Record
55%
7489-6150 (13639)
Both legs:
Invested
$80.24
Value
$88
PnL
+$7.76
Record
60%
12290-8128 (20418)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$49.22
Value
$62.07
PnL
+$12.85
Record
57%
12521-9634 (22155)
Invested
$38.28
Value
—
PnL
-$38.28
Record
57%
7947-6108 (14055)
Invested
$37.32
Value
—
PnL
-$37.32
Record
59%
6829-4778 (11607)
Invested
$2.7
Value
—
PnL
-$2.7
Record
51%
20120-19270 (39390)
Invested
$43.83
Value
$46.85
PnL
+$3.02
Record
66%
125972-64860 (190832)
Invested
$40.78
Value
$43.2
PnL
+$2.42
Record
52%
90461-84991 (175452)
Invested
$36.42
Value
$40
PnL
+$3.58
Record
53%
27257-24226 (51483)
Invested
$36.8
Value
$39.22
PnL
+$2.42
Record
61%
95058-59969 (155027)
Invested
$11.7
Value
—
PnL
-$11.7
Record
50%
5310-5406 (10716)
Invested
$17.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$2.2
Record
55%
23937-19330 (43267)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$15
PnL
+$7.2
Record
59%
23233-16335 (39568)
Invested
$4.89
Value
—
PnL
-$4.89
Record
66%
112247-58715 (170962)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3646-2828 (6474)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $5.1K
hoodquant
Down — $414
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
GoodFallen
Down — $208.02
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0
gansinimen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
sfkjbsr457
Down — $120
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
ARBArbitrage — excluded