Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
Resolved Up. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
31
Up 83%
1 arb excluded
$3.1K
$36.66
Smart Money Signal
25 of 31 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98¢ | $504.46 | $514.99 | +$10.53 | 93% 23629-1777 (25406) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 87.5¢ | $280.83 | $300.95 | +$20.12 | 55% 8689-7147 (15836) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 94.9¢ | $273.53 | $288.14 | +$14.6 | 77% 9453-2850 (12303) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 74.6¢ | $217.95 | $229.9 | +$11.94 | 55% 15551-12973 (28524) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 78.8¢ | $224.27 | $191.23 | -$33.04 | 66% 99220-51430 (150650) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 90.9¢ | $179.85 | $192.07 | +$12.22 | 54% 8079-6770 (14849) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 72.5¢ | $122.05 | $156.31 | +$34.26 | 56% 13809-10963 (24772) |
DV dvasdkasodk | Upavg 96.7¢ | $149.58 | $147.06 | -$2.51 | 52% 90461-84991 (175452) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 81.3¢ | $135.58 | $137.17 | +$1.59 | 50% 5310-5406 (10716) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 52.8¢ | $140.96 | $136.49 | -$4.47 | 59% 6829-4778 (11607) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.8¢ | $72.1 | $136.49 | +$64.38 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.1¢ | $68.85 | — | -$68.85 | |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Downavg 33.7¢ | $100 | — | -$100 | 38% 184-298 (482) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Upavg 96¢ | $128.65 | $134.01 | +$5.36 | 48% 23316-25650 (48966) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 94¢ | $94 | $100 | +$6 | 51% 17134-16657 (33791) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 92.9¢ | $89.8 | $94.02 | +$4.22 | 66% 125972-64860 (190832) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 86.3¢ | $81.64 | $91.71 | +$10.07 | 57% 12521-9634 (22155) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $80.08 | $88 | +$7.92 | 55% 7489-6150 (13639) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $56.33 | $59.9 | +$3.57 | 64% 23436-12922 (36358) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $52.71 | $46.1 | -$6.61 | 46% 38152-45055 (83207) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 93.8¢ | $47.16 | $50.28 | +$3.13 | 61% 95058-59969 (155027) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $47.31 | $44 | -$3.31 | 60% 12290-8128 (20418) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 55.8¢ | $37.17 | $66.57 | +$29.4 | 57% 12073-9061 (21134) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $9.05 | $7.65 | -$1.4 | 53% 27257-24226 (51483) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $8.32 | $16 | +$7.68 | 57% 7947-6108 (14055) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $7.95 | $15.89 | +$7.95 | 58% 51027-37173 (88200) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 3.6¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 64% 40186-22978 (63164) |
Invested
$504.46
Value
$514.99
PnL
+$10.53
Record
93%
23629-1777 (25406)
machinelearnedInvested
$280.83
Value
$300.95
PnL
+$20.12
Record
55%
8689-7147 (15836)
NIULAI4Invested
$273.53
Value
$288.14
PnL
+$14.6
Record
77%
9453-2850 (12303)
Invested
$217.95
Value
$229.9
PnL
+$11.94
Record
55%
15551-12973 (28524)
Invested
$224.27
Value
$191.23
PnL
-$33.04
Record
66%
99220-51430 (150650)
Invested
$179.85
Value
$192.07
PnL
+$12.22
Record
54%
8079-6770 (14849)
Invested
$122.05
Value
$156.31
PnL
+$34.26
Record
56%
13809-10963 (24772)
Invested
$149.58
Value
$147.06
PnL
-$2.51
Record
52%
90461-84991 (175452)
Invested
$135.58
Value
$137.17
PnL
+$1.59
Record
50%
5310-5406 (10716)
Invested
$140.96
Value
$136.49
PnL
-$4.47
Record
59%
6829-4778 (11607)
Both legs:
Invested
$100
Value
—
PnL
-$100
Record
38%
184-298 (482)
Invested
$128.65
Value
$134.01
PnL
+$5.36
Record
48%
23316-25650 (48966)
Invested
$94
Value
$100
PnL
+$6
Record
51%
17134-16657 (33791)
Invested
$89.8
Value
$94.02
PnL
+$4.22
Record
66%
125972-64860 (190832)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$81.64
Value
$91.71
PnL
+$10.07
Record
57%
12521-9634 (22155)
Invested
$80.08
Value
$88
PnL
+$7.92
Record
55%
7489-6150 (13639)
Invested
$56.33
Value
$59.9
PnL
+$3.57
Record
64%
23436-12922 (36358)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$52.71
Value
$46.1
PnL
-$6.61
Record
46%
38152-45055 (83207)
Invested
$47.16
Value
$50.28
PnL
+$3.13
Record
61%
95058-59969 (155027)
Invested
$47.31
Value
$44
PnL
-$3.31
Record
60%
12290-8128 (20418)
Invested
$37.17
Value
$66.57
PnL
+$29.4
Record
57%
12073-9061 (21134)
Invested
$9.05
Value
$7.65
PnL
-$1.4
Record
53%
27257-24226 (51483)
Invested
$8.32
Value
$16
PnL
+$7.68
Record
57%
7947-6108 (14055)
Invested
$7.95
Value
$15.89
PnL
+$7.95
Record
58%
51027-37173 (88200)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
64%
40186-22978 (63164)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $514.99
machinelearned
Up — $300.95
NIULAI4
Up — $288.14
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $229.9
Bonereaper
Up — $191.23
sfkjbsr457
Up — $192.07
GoodFallen
Up — $156.31
dvasdkasodk
Up — $147.06
ply-pm0
Up — $137.17
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded