Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 82%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$588.58

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 29 top traders (79%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares5,976

Combined PnL+$782.28

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,499

Combined PnL-$193.7

Down — 79%Up — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 59.2¢	$776.28	$953.75	+$177.47	55% 15551-12973 (28524)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 65.9¢	$539.86	$727.36	+$187.5	57% 12521-9634 (22155)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$566.28	$572	+$5.72	93% 23629-1777 (25406)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 58.3¢	$382.36	$483.41	+$101.05	56% 13809-10963 (24772)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 77.8¢	$360.87	$396.54	+$35.67	54% 8079-6770 (14849)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 66.9¢	$262.75	$356.11	+$93.37	59% 23233-16335 (39568)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 61¢	$239.2	$275.32	+$36.12	66% 99220-51430 (150650)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61¢	$167.89	$275.32	+$107.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.4¢	$71.31	—	-$71.31
SP spartacray	Downavg 73.9¢	$286.7	$346.03	+$59.33	53% 27257-24226 (51483)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 71.4¢	$303.19	$297.85	-$5.34	50% 5310-5406 (10716)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$286.55	$289.44	+$2.89	59% 62303-43482 (105785)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 81¢	$244.98	$199.97	-$45.01	51% 17134-16657 (33791)
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Upavg 37.4¢	$130	—	-$130	38% 184-298 (482)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 75¢	$216	$200	-$16	56% 58164-44891 (103055)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 84.1¢	$180.72	$196	+$15.27	55% 7489-6150 (13639)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 73.2¢	$174.91	$157.52	-$17.38	60% 12290-8128 (20418)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.2¢	$115.26	$157.52	+$42.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.4¢	$59.64	—	-$59.64
BoneOhio	Downavg 90¢	$135	$150	+$15	74% 102617-36432 (139049)
ohioism	Downavg 91¢	$136.5	$150	+$13.5	64% 40186-22978 (63164)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 87.3¢	$125.95	$97	-$28.95	55% 8689-7147 (15836)
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.3¢	$84.64	$97	+$12.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.6¢	$41.31	—	-$41.31
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 91¢	$154.56	$100	-$54.56	58% 60631-44262 (104893)
└ Down leg	Downavg 91¢	$91	$100	+$9
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.4¢	$63.56	—	-$63.56
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 59.4¢	$71.69	$112.29	+$40.6	66% 112247-58715 (170962)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 38.6¢	$60.24	$156	+$95.76	57% 7947-6108 (14055)
AS asidjasiodja	Downavg 95¢	$101.46	$84	-$3.38	61% 95058-59969 (155027)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 53.6¢	$72.55	$74.36	+$1.81	59% 6829-4778 (11607)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.5¢	$34.58	$74.36	+$39.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.6¢	$37.97	—	-$37.97
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 87.9¢	$76.5	$72	-$4.5	66% 125972-64860 (190832)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 81.7¢	$75.51	$60.01	-$15.5	57% 12073-9061 (21134)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$776.28

Value

$953.75

PnL

+$177.47

Record

55%

15551-12973 (28524)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$539.86

Value

$727.36

PnL

+$187.5

Record

57%

12521-9634 (22155)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$566.28

Value

$572

PnL

+$5.72

Record

93%

23629-1777 (25406)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$382.36

Value

$483.41

PnL

+$101.05

Record

56%

13809-10963 (24772)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$360.87

Value

$396.54

PnL

+$35.67

Record

54%

8079-6770 (14849)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$262.75

Value

$356.11

PnL

+$93.37

Record

59%

23233-16335 (39568)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$239.2

Value

$275.32

PnL

+$36.12

Record

66%

99220-51430 (150650)

Both legs:

Down$167.8961¢+$107.43

Up$71.3116.4¢-$71.31

spartacray

Down

Invested

$286.7

Value

$346.03

PnL

+$59.33

Record

53%

27257-24226 (51483)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$303.19

Value

$297.85

PnL

-$5.34

Record

50%

5310-5406 (10716)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$286.55

Value

$289.44

PnL

+$2.89

Record

59%

62303-43482 (105785)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$244.98

Value

$199.97

PnL

-$45.01

Record

51%

17134-16657 (33791)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Invested

$130

Value

—

PnL

-$130

Record

38%

184-298 (482)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$216

Value

$200

PnL

-$16

Record

56%

58164-44891 (103055)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$180.72

Value

$196

PnL

+$15.27

Record

55%

7489-6150 (13639)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$174.91

Value

$157.52

PnL

-$17.38

Record

60%

12290-8128 (20418)

Both legs:

Down$115.2673.2¢+$42.26

Up$59.6426.4¢-$59.64

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$135

Value

$150

PnL

+$15

Record

74%

102617-36432 (139049)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$136.5

Value

$150

PnL

+$13.5

Record

64%

40186-22978 (63164)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$125.95

Value

$97

PnL

-$28.95

Record

55%

8689-7147 (15836)

Both legs:

Down$84.6487.3¢+$12.36

Up$41.3122.6¢-$41.31

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$154.56

Value

$100

PnL

-$54.56

Record

58%

60631-44262 (104893)

Both legs:

Invested

$71.69

Value

$112.29

PnL

+$40.6

Record

66%

112247-58715 (170962)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$60.24

Value

$156

PnL

+$95.76

Record

57%

7947-6108 (14055)

asidjasiodja

Down

Invested

$101.46

Value

$84

PnL

-$3.38

Record

61%

95058-59969 (155027)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$72.55

Value

$74.36

PnL

+$1.81

Record

59%

6829-4778 (11607)

Both legs:

Down$34.5846.5¢+$39.78

Up$37.9753.6¢-$37.97

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$76.5

Value

$72

PnL

-$4.5

Record

66%

125972-64860 (190832)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$75.51

Value

$60.01

PnL

-$15.5

Record

57%

12073-9061 (21134)

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 29 top traders (79%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x90fdb215...3efab0

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793393700

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $953.75

+$177.47

FairValueMachine

Down — $727.36

+$187.5

hoodquant

Down — $572

+$5.72

GoodFallen

Down — $483.41

+$101.05

sfkjbsr457

Down — $396.54

+$35.67

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $356.11

+$93.37

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$36.12

spartacray

Down — $346.03

+$59.33

ply-pm0

Down — $297.85

-$5.34

0x50f7

Down — $289.44

+$2.89

Trade on Polymarket