Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 46% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 48%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$317.4

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 24 top traders (46%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,692

Combined PnL+$116.14

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,709

Combined PnL-$433.54

Down — 46%Up — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 58¢	$810.6	$896.97	+$86.38	55% 15551-12973 (28524)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$466.89	$471.61	+$4.72	93% 23629-1777 (25406)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 65.3¢	$416.74	$351.9	-$64.84	56% 13809-10963 (24772)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 50.2¢	$268.29	$280.2	+$11.91	50% 5310-5406 (10716)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 48.2¢	$274.05	$229.14	-$44.91	57% 12521-9634 (22155)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.2¢	$151.84	—	-$151.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.3¢	$122.21	$229.14	+$106.93
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 63.8¢	$258.15	$241.04	-$17.11	54% 8079-6770 (14849)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 60.1¢	$127.76	$156.94	+$29.18	59% 23233-16335 (39568)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 34.7¢	$157.63	—	-$157.63	66% 99220-51430 (150650)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 61.9¢	$116.95	$72.07	-$44.88	59% 6829-4778 (11607)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.9¢	$86.68	—	-$86.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 42¢	$30.27	$72.07	+$41.8
SP spartacray	Downavg 69.9¢	$129.36	$157.37	+$28.01	53% 27257-24226 (51483)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 57.2¢	$96.71	$112.93	+$16.22	55% 7489-6150 (13639)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.2¢	$64.59	$112.93	+$48.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$32.12	—	-$32.12
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Upavg 48¢	$100	—	-$100	38% 184-298 (482)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 53.8¢	$83	$39.86	-$43.14	55% 8689-7147 (15836)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.8¢	$63.38	—	-$63.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.2¢	$19.62	$39.86	+$20.24
0X 0x8a697827b546da738f50cc592598a480e24d5728CTR<$100	Upavg 36¢	$64.1	—	-$64.1	21% 6-23 (29)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 37.8¢	$38.09	$40.11	+$2.02	60% 12290-8128 (20418)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.8¢	$19.29	—	-$19.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.9¢	$18.8	$40.11	+$21.31
ohioism<$100	Downavg 44¢	$32.99	$74.99	+$41.99	64% 40186-22978 (63164)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 64¢	$51.1	—	-$51.1	57% 12073-9061 (21134)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 99¢	$29.7	$30	+$0.3	66% 125972-64860 (190832)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 1.5¢	$6.12	—	-$6.12	49% 78037-81540 (159577)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 66¢	$25.32	$20	-$5.32	55% 23937-19330 (43267)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 1.2¢	$3.63	—	-$3.63	46% 38152-45055 (83207)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 43¢	$21.18	—	-$21.18	56% 58164-44891 (103055)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 46¢	$9.93	$10.86	+$0.93	66% 112247-58715 (170962)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 37.6¢	$7.56	—	-$7.56	52% 90461-84991 (175452)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$2.46	—	-$2.46	59% 62303-43482 (105785)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$810.6

Value

$896.97

PnL

+$86.38

Record

55%

15551-12973 (28524)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$466.89

Value

$471.61

PnL

+$4.72

Record

93%

23629-1777 (25406)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$416.74

Value

$351.9

PnL

-$64.84

Record

56%

13809-10963 (24772)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$268.29

Value

$280.2

PnL

+$11.91

Record

50%

5310-5406 (10716)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$274.05

Value

$229.14

PnL

-$44.91

Record

57%

12521-9634 (22155)

Both legs:

Up$151.8448.2¢-$151.84

Down$122.2153.3¢+$106.93

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$258.15

Value

$241.04

PnL

-$17.11

Record

54%

8079-6770 (14849)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$127.76

Value

$156.94

PnL

+$29.18

Record

59%

23233-16335 (39568)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$157.63

Value

—

PnL

-$157.63

Record

66%

99220-51430 (150650)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$116.95

Value

$72.07

PnL

-$44.88

Record

59%

6829-4778 (11607)

Both legs:

Invested

$129.36

Value

$157.37

PnL

+$28.01

Record

53%

27257-24226 (51483)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$96.71

Value

$112.93

PnL

+$16.22

Record

55%

7489-6150 (13639)

Both legs:

Down$64.5957.2¢+$48.33

Up$32.1249.4¢-$32.12

ImgonnadoitCTR

Invested

$100

Value

—

PnL

-$100

Record

38%

184-298 (482)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$83

Value

$39.86

PnL

-$43.14

Record

55%

8689-7147 (15836)

Both legs:

Up$63.3853.8¢-$63.38

Down$19.6249.2¢+$20.24

0x8a697827b546da738f50cc592598a480e24d5728CTR<$100

Invested

$64.1

Value

—

PnL

-$64.1

Record

21%

6-23 (29)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$38.09

Value

$40.11

PnL

+$2.02

Record

60%

12290-8128 (20418)

Both legs:

Up$19.2937.8¢-$19.29

Down$18.846.9¢+$21.31

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$32.99

Value

$74.99

PnL

+$41.99

Record

64%

40186-22978 (63164)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$51.1

Value

—

PnL

-$51.1

Record

57%

12073-9061 (21134)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$29.7

Value

$30

PnL

+$0.3

Record

66%

125972-64860 (190832)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$6.12

Value

—

PnL

-$6.12

Record

49%

78037-81540 (159577)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$25.32

Value

$20

PnL

-$5.32

Record

55%

23937-19330 (43267)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$3.63

Value

—

PnL

-$3.63

Record

46%

38152-45055 (83207)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$21.18

Value

—

PnL

-$21.18

Record

56%

58164-44891 (103055)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$9.93

Value

$10.86

PnL

+$0.93

Record

66%

112247-58715 (170962)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$7.56

Value

—

PnL

-$7.56

Record

52%

90461-84991 (175452)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$2.46

Value

—

PnL

-$2.46

Record

59%

62303-43482 (105785)

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 24 top traders (46%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x07a1628e...4a4fe1

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793393400

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $896.97

+$86.38

hoodquant

Down — $471.61

+$4.72

GoodFallen

Down — $351.9

-$64.84

ply-pm0

Down — $280.2

+$11.91

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$44.91

sfkjbsr457

Down — $241.04

-$17.11

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $156.94

Bonereaper

Up — $0

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

spartacray

Down — $157.37

+$28.01

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