Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.5K

Combined PnL

-$149.64

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 28 top traders (68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares12,222

Combined PnL+$192.92

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares974

Combined PnL-$342.56

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	+$9.01	59% 62303-43482 (105785)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 96.6¢	$593.02	$614	+$20.98	93% 23629-1777 (25406)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 72.8¢	$600.5	$825.11	+$224.61	57% 71032-54136 (125168)
SP spartacray	Downavg 94.1¢	$274.24	$245.88	-$28.36	53% 27257-24226 (51483)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 94¢	$227.81	$239.99	+$12.18	59% 23233-16335 (39568)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 71.2¢	$272.57	$215.2	-$57.38	55% 15551-12973 (28524)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 84¢	$173	$200	+$27	51% 17134-16657 (33791)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 89.9¢	$515.51	$180	-$30.51	54% 8079-6770 (14849)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 70.3¢	$216.37	$154.43	-$61.94	56% 13809-10963 (24772)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.3¢	$108.51	$154.43	+$45.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.6¢	$107.86	—	-$107.86
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 79.4¢	$154.73	$154.99	+$0.26	50% 5310-5406 (10716)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 83.3¢	$167.36	$152.35	-$15.01	60% 12290-8128 (20418)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 48.7¢	$131.02	—	-$131.02	57% 7947-6108 (14055)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 59.5¢	$94.98	$99.74	+$4.76	66% 99220-51430 (150650)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.5¢	$59.36	$99.74	+$40.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.1¢	$35.62	—	-$35.62
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 96.8¢	$91.84	$93	+$1.16	61% 95058-59969 (155027)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 50.2¢	$70.45	—	-$70.45	59% 6829-4778 (11607)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 86.7¢	$66.3	$60	-$6.3	57% 12073-9061 (21134)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 75.6¢	$40.47	$45.73	+$5.26	57% 12521-9634 (22155)
RO robustmstCTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$45.89	—	-$45.89	48% 105-115 (220)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 91¢	$40.04	$44	+$3.96	55% 7489-6150 (13639)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 55.2¢	$29.51	$29.65	+$0.14	66% 112247-58715 (170962)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 47.6¢	$35.17	—	-$35.17	58% 37944-27182 (65126)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 91.5¢	$34.08	$37.25	+$3.17	66% 125972-64860 (190832)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$37.97	—	-$37.97	34% 18844-35836 (54680)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 51¢	$30.6	$60	+$29.4	57% 10393-7793 (18186)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 85¢	$23.62	$15.57	-$8.05	64% 23436-12922 (36358)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$8,995.02

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$9.01

Record

59%

62303-43482 (105785)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$593.02

Value

$614

PnL

+$20.98

Record

93%

23629-1777 (25406)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$600.5

Value

$825.11

PnL

+$224.61

Record

57%

71032-54136 (125168)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$274.24

Value

$245.88

PnL

-$28.36

Record

53%

27257-24226 (51483)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$227.81

Value

$239.99

PnL

+$12.18

Record

59%

23233-16335 (39568)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$272.57

Value

$215.2

PnL

-$57.38

Record

55%

15551-12973 (28524)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$173

Value

$200

PnL

+$27

Record

51%

17134-16657 (33791)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$515.51

Value

$180

PnL

-$30.51

Record

54%

8079-6770 (14849)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$216.37

Value

$154.43

PnL

-$61.94

Record

56%

13809-10963 (24772)

Both legs:

Down$108.5170.3¢+$45.92

Up$107.8637.6¢-$107.86

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$154.73

Value

$154.99

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

5310-5406 (10716)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$167.36

Value

$152.35

PnL

-$15.01

Record

60%

12290-8128 (20418)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$131.02

Value

—

PnL

-$131.02

Record

57%

7947-6108 (14055)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$94.98

Value

$99.74

PnL

+$4.76

Record

66%

99220-51430 (150650)

Both legs:

Down$59.3659.5¢+$40.38

Up$35.6240.1¢-$35.62

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$91.84

Value

$93

PnL

+$1.16

Record

61%

95058-59969 (155027)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$70.45

Value

—

PnL

-$70.45

Record

59%

6829-4778 (11607)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$66.3

Value

$60

PnL

-$6.3

Record

57%

12073-9061 (21134)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$40.47

Value

$45.73

PnL

+$5.26

Record

57%

12521-9634 (22155)

robustmstCTR<$100

Invested

$45.89

Value

—

PnL

-$45.89

Record

48%

105-115 (220)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$40.04

Value

$44

PnL

+$3.96

Record

55%

7489-6150 (13639)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$29.51

Value

$29.65

PnL

+$0.14

Record

66%

112247-58715 (170962)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$35.17

Value

—

PnL

-$35.17

Record

58%

37944-27182 (65126)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$34.08

Value

$37.25

PnL

+$3.17

Record

66%

125972-64860 (190832)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$37.97

Value

—

PnL

-$37.97

Record

34%

18844-35836 (54680)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$30.6

Value

$60

PnL

+$29.4

Record

57%

10393-7793 (18186)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$23.62

Value

$15.57

PnL

-$8.05

Record

64%

23436-12922 (36358)

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 28 top traders (68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x50e1e90d...245e78

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793393100

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $9.0K

+$9.01

hoodquant

Down — $614

+$20.98

uninformedfloww

Down — $825.11

+$224.61

spartacray

Down — $245.88

-$28.36

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $239.99

+$12.18

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $215.2

-$57.38

gansinimen

Down — $200

+$27

sfkjbsr457

Down — $180

-$30.51

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$61.94

ply-pm0

Down — $154.99

+$0.26

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