Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 94%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.8K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Signal

30 of 34 top traders (88%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up30 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares13,304

Combined PnL+$2.9K

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares230

Combined PnL-$146.91

Up — 88%Down — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO borderlocket	Upavg 65.4¢	$3.6K	$5.6K	+$1.9K	49% 67-70 (137)
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100	Upavg 67.7¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$266.77	52% 402-367 (769)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.7¢	$1.8K	$2.7K	+$859.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.2¢	$592.6	—	-$592.6
31 3123123121313ARB<$100	Upavg 67.3¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$149.4	56% 671-535 (1206)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.3¢	$1.3K	$2.0K	+$638.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.4¢	$488.92	—	-$488.92
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Upavg 69¢	$966.97	$1.0K	+$51.18	53% 2012-1815 (3827)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69¢	$702.5	$1.0K	+$315.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.9¢	$264.48	—	-$264.48
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97.6¢	$957.26	$981	+$23.74	93% 23629-1777 (25406)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 77.6¢	$816.81	$815.1	-$1.71	54% 8079-6770 (14849)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Upavg 73.9¢	$786.84	$597.91	-$188.92	65% 4074-2208 (6282)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.9¢	$442.02	$597.91	+$155.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.4¢	$344.82	—	-$344.82
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 72.2¢	$612.65	$671.98	+$59.33	55% 15551-12973 (28524)
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324	Upavg 82.2¢	$606.76	$738.58	+$131.82	51% 876-850 (1726)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 82.2¢	$583.03	$593.61	+$10.58	57% 71032-54136 (125168)
└ Up leg	Upavg 82.2¢	$488.04	$593.61	+$105.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.5¢	$95	—	-$95
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 73.2¢	$531.02	$500	-$31.02	55% 50540-41153 (91693)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.2¢	$366.02	$500	+$133.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 33¢	$165	—	-$165
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 78.6¢	$430.86	$523.96	+$93.09	59% 23233-16335 (39568)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 68.5¢	$389.15	$504.99	+$115.83	56% 13809-10963 (24772)
SP spartacray	Upavg 74.7¢	$406.5	$490.46	+$83.96	53% 27257-24226 (51483)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 78.8¢	$338.94	$411.26	+$72.32	51% 17134-16657 (33791)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 80.9¢	$327.46	$351.89	+$24.43	55% 7489-6150 (13639)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 78.1¢	$344.53	$321.58	-$22.95	60% 12290-8128 (20418)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 72.1¢	$320.61	$332.48	+$11.87	50% 5310-5406 (10716)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 82.9¢	$303.48	$298.15	-$5.33	66% 99220-51430 (150650)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 33.5¢	$343.6	$225	-$118.6	55% 8689-7147 (15836)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.8¢	$170.5	$225	+$54.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.5¢	$173.1	—	-$173.1
FairValueMachine	Upavg 72.5¢	$229.16	$259.99	+$30.83	57% 12521-9634 (22155)
pspspsps5	Upavg 77.2¢	$165.04	$213.88	+$48.84	46% 38152-45055 (83207)
13 13897651	Upavg 50¢	$86.71	$154.7	+$67.99	59% 6829-4778 (11607)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 77¢	$77	$100	+$23	57% 10393-7793 (18186)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 79.8¢	$58.23	$73	+$14.77	49% 78037-81540 (159577)

borderlocket

Invested

$3,643.84

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

49%

67-70 (137)

oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100

Invested

$2,393.1

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$266.77

Record

52%

402-367 (769)

Both legs:

Up$1,800.567.7¢+$859.37

Down$592.626.2¢-$592.6

3123123121313ARB<$100

Invested

$1,801.09

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$149.4

Record

56%

671-535 (1206)

Both legs:

Up$1,312.1767.3¢+$638.32

Down$488.9227.4¢-$488.92

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Invested

$966.97

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$51.18

Record

53%

2012-1815 (3827)

Both legs:

Up$702.569¢+$315.66

Down$264.4828.9¢-$264.48

hoodquant

Invested

$957.26

Value

$981

PnL

+$23.74

Record

93%

23629-1777 (25406)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$816.81

Value

$815.1

PnL

-$1.71

Record

54%

8079-6770 (14849)

AtomforgeARB<$100

Invested

$786.84

Value

$597.91

PnL

-$188.92

Record

65%

4074-2208 (6282)

Both legs:

Up$442.0273.9¢+$155.89

Down$344.8226.4¢-$344.82

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$612.65

Value

$671.98

PnL

+$59.33

Record

55%

15551-12973 (28524)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

Invested

$606.76

Value

$738.58

PnL

+$131.82

Record

51%

876-850 (1726)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$583.03

Value

$593.61

PnL

+$10.58

Record

57%

71032-54136 (125168)

Both legs:

Up$488.0482.2¢+$105.57

Down$9529.5¢-$95

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$531.02

Value

$500

PnL

-$31.02

Record

55%

50540-41153 (91693)

Both legs:

Up$366.0273.2¢+$133.98

Down$16533¢-$165

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$430.86

Value

$523.96

PnL

+$93.09

Record

59%

23233-16335 (39568)

GoodFallen

Invested

$389.15

Value

$504.99

PnL

+$115.83

Record

56%

13809-10963 (24772)

spartacray

Invested

$406.5

Value

$490.46

PnL

+$83.96

Record

53%

27257-24226 (51483)

gansinimen

Invested

$338.94

Value

$411.26

PnL

+$72.32

Record

51%

17134-16657 (33791)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$327.46

Value

$351.89

PnL

+$24.43

Record

55%

7489-6150 (13639)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$344.53

Value

$321.58

PnL

-$22.95

Record

60%

12290-8128 (20418)

ply-pm0

Invested

$320.61

Value

$332.48

PnL

+$11.87

Record

50%

5310-5406 (10716)

Bonereaper

Invested

$303.48

Value

$298.15

PnL

-$5.33

Record

66%

99220-51430 (150650)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$343.6

Value

$225

PnL

-$118.6

Record

55%

8689-7147 (15836)

Both legs:

Up$170.575.8¢+$54.5

Down$173.133.5¢-$173.1

FairValueMachine

Invested

$229.16

Value

$259.99

PnL

+$30.83

Record

57%

12521-9634 (22155)

pspspsps5

Invested

$165.04

Value

$213.88

PnL

+$48.84

Record

46%

38152-45055 (83207)

13897651

Invested

$86.71

Value

$154.7

PnL

+$67.99

Record

59%

6829-4778 (11607)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$77

Value

$100

PnL

+$23

Record

57%

10393-7793 (18186)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$58.23

Value

$73

PnL

+$14.77

Record

49%

78037-81540 (159577)

Smart Money Signal

30 of 34 top traders (88%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa809f016...5692b3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793392800

Traders in this Market

borderlocket

Up — $5.6K

oxe78sh4w98

Arbitrage — excluded

3123123121313

Arbitrage — excluded

0xdc27...afdd9a

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $981

+$23.74

sfkjbsr457

Up — $815.1

-$1.71

Atomforge

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$188.92

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $671.98

+$59.33

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

Up — $738.58

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded