Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET

Resolved Down. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 48%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$617.12

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 34 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,287

Combined PnL+$165.1

Up18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,422

Combined PnL-$782.22

Down — 47%Up — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 60.2¢	$535.12	$523.83	-$11.29	55% 15551-12973 (28524)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.6¢	$419.83	$426	+$6.17	93% 23629-1777 (25406)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 70.4¢	$276.42	$271.36	-$5.05	50% 5310-5406 (10716)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 65¢	$290.37	$338.46	+$48.09	56% 13809-10963 (24772)
SP spartacray	Downavg 78.6¢	$332.54	$258.42	-$74.13	53% 27257-24226 (51483)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 73.3¢	$252.16	$246.63	-$5.53	59% 23233-16335 (39568)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 42.8¢	$145.44	$230.91	+$85.47	66% 99220-51430 (150650)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 68.7¢	$216.58	$195.51	-$21.06	54% 8079-6770 (14849)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 94.5¢	$265.9	$200	-$65.9	51% 17134-16657 (33791)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 81¢	$146.34	$176	+$29.66	55% 7489-6150 (13639)
machinelearned	Downavg 53.7¢	$115.92	$216	+$100.08	55% 8689-7147 (15836)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Upavg 50¢	$149.99	—	-$149.99	58% 60631-44262 (104893)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 49.1¢	$106.71	—	-$106.71	57% 7947-6108 (14055)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 62.1¢	$127.56	$128.33	+$0.78	57% 12073-9061 (21134)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.1¢	$79.67	$128.33	+$48.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.8¢	$47.89	—	-$47.89
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR	Upavg 50.1¢	$163.96	—	-$163.96	60% 12290-8128 (20418)
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Upavg 40.7¢	$300	—	-$21.95	38% 184-298 (482)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 49.2¢	$60.45	—	-$60.45	59% 6829-4778 (11607)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 73¢	$54.07	—	-$54.07	64% 40186-22978 (63164)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 57.6¢	$51.01	$88.63	+$37.62	57% 12521-9634 (22155)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$45.09	—	-$45.09	59% 62303-43482 (105785)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 50.2¢	$42.7	—	-$42.7	34% 18844-35836 (54680)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 33.6¢	$31.5	—	-$31.5	51% 20120-19270 (39390)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 52¢	$31.2	$60	+$28.8	57% 10393-7793 (18186)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 45.3¢	$30.81	—	-$30.81	58% 37944-27182 (65126)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$24.4	—	-$24.4	74% 102617-36432 (139049)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$535.12

Value

$523.83

PnL

-$11.29

Record

55%

15551-12973 (28524)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$419.83

Value

$426

PnL

+$6.17

Record

93%

23629-1777 (25406)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$276.42

Value

$271.36

PnL

-$5.05

Record

50%

5310-5406 (10716)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$290.37

Value

$338.46

PnL

+$48.09

Record

56%

13809-10963 (24772)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$332.54

Value

$258.42

PnL

-$74.13

Record

53%

27257-24226 (51483)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$252.16

Value

$246.63

PnL

-$5.53

Record

59%

23233-16335 (39568)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$145.44

Value

$230.91

PnL

+$85.47

Record

66%

99220-51430 (150650)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$216.58

Value

$195.51

PnL

-$21.06

Record

54%

8079-6770 (14849)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$265.9

Value

$200

PnL

-$65.9

Record

51%

17134-16657 (33791)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$146.34

Value

$176

PnL

+$29.66

Record

55%

7489-6150 (13639)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$115.92

Value

$216

PnL

+$100.08

Record

55%

8689-7147 (15836)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Invested

$149.99

Value

—

PnL

-$149.99

Record

58%

60631-44262 (104893)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$106.71

Value

—

PnL

-$106.71

Record

57%

7947-6108 (14055)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$127.56

Value

$128.33

PnL

+$0.78

Record

57%

12073-9061 (21134)

Both legs:

Down$79.6762.1¢+$48.67

Up$47.8971.8¢-$47.89

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR

Invested

$163.96

Value

—

PnL

-$163.96

Record

60%

12290-8128 (20418)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Invested

$300

Value

—

PnL

-$21.95

Record

38%

184-298 (482)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$60.45

Value

—

PnL

-$60.45

Record

59%

6829-4778 (11607)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$54.07

Value

—

PnL

-$54.07

Record

64%

40186-22978 (63164)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$51.01

Value

$88.63

PnL

+$37.62

Record

57%

12521-9634 (22155)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$45.09

Value

—

PnL

-$45.09

Record

59%

62303-43482 (105785)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$42.7

Value

—

PnL

-$42.7

Record

34%

18844-35836 (54680)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$31.5

Value

—

PnL

-$31.5

Record

51%

20120-19270 (39390)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$31.2

Value

$60

PnL

+$28.8

Record

57%

10393-7793 (18186)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$30.81

Value

—

PnL

-$30.81

Record

58%

37944-27182 (65126)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$24.4

Value

—

PnL

-$24.4

Record

74%

102617-36432 (139049)

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 34 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4a96ed04...4ab83d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793392500

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $523.83

-$11.29

hoodquant

Down — $426

+$6.17

ply-pm0

Down — $271.36

-$5.05

GoodFallen

Down — $338.46

+$48.09

spartacray

Down — $258.42

-$74.13

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $246.63

-$5.53

Bonereaper

Down — $230.91

+$85.47

sfkjbsr457

Down — $195.51

-$21.06

gansinimen

Down — $200

-$65.9

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $176

+$29.66

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