Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

Resolved Up. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 58%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Signal

16 of 27 top traders (59%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares11,398

Combined PnL+$833.08

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,614

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Up — 59%Down — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Up	$8.0K	$8.0K	+$8.41	56% 3646-2828 (6474)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 53.3¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	55% 15551-12973 (28524)
NIULAI4	Upavg 85¢	$943.45	$1.1K	+$166.89	77% 9453-2850 (12303)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 58.2¢	$697.66	$827.37	+$129.71	56% 13809-10963 (24772)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.2¢	$380.49	—	-$380.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.3¢	$317.16	$827.37	+$510.2
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 70.6¢	$552.61	—	-$552.61	57% 71032-54136 (125168)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 36¢	$350.39	$490.25	+$139.86	54% 8079-6770 (14849)
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 52.6¢	$368.33	—	-$368.33	57% 12521-9634 (22155)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 55.9¢	$367.26	$414.32	+$47.06	66% 99220-51430 (150650)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.9¢	$204.91	—	-$204.91
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.2¢	$162.35	$414.32	+$251.97
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 54.8¢	$380.68	—	-$380.68	50% 5310-5406 (10716)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 43¢	$209.81	$353.68	+$143.87	60% 12290-8128 (20418)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.7¢	$316.83	$321	+$4.17	93% 23629-1777 (25406)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Downavg 63.6¢	$238.32	$186.15	-$52.18	59% 23233-16335 (39568)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.6¢	$160.02	—	-$160.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.1¢	$78.3	$186.15	+$107.85
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 51.4¢	$167.12	—	-$167.12	58% 37944-27182 (65126)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Downavg 55.6¢	$211.05	—	-$207.35	55% 7489-6150 (13639)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 55¢	$232.82	$256.79	+$23.96	53% 27257-24226 (51483)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.1¢	$91.69	—	-$91.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 55¢	$141.13	$256.79	+$115.65
MO mo-money	Upavg 73.9¢	$371.98	$503.28	+$131.3	55% 50540-41153 (91693)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 70¢	$106.74	$106.82	+$0.08	66% 125972-64860 (190832)
13 13897651	Upavg 50¢	$82.7	$165.4	+$82.7	59% 6829-4778 (11607)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 81.6¢	$97.23	$127.07	+$29.84	57% 12073-9061 (21134)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.6¢	$51.74	—	-$51.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.8¢	$45.49	$127.07	+$81.58
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 62.7¢	$67.89	$100	+$32.11	55% 8689-7147 (15836)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.7¢	$40.39	—	-$40.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.5¢	$27.5	$100	+$72.5
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Downavg 81¢	$81	—	-$81	51% 17134-16657 (33791)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 48.3¢	$46.13	$95.41	+$49.28	57% 7947-6108 (14055)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 74¢	$94.24	$100	+$5.76	58% 60631-44262 (104893)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74¢	$74	$100	+$26
└ Down leg	Downavg 70¢	$20.24	—	-$20.24
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$53.66	—	-$53.66	55% 23937-19330 (43267)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$8.43	—	-$8.43	63% 52021-30681 (82702)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$7,990

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$8.41

Record

56%

3646-2828 (6474)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,163.4

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

55%

15551-12973 (28524)

NIULAI4

Invested

$943.45

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$166.89

Record

77%

9453-2850 (12303)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$697.66

Value

$827.37

PnL

+$129.71

Record

56%

13809-10963 (24772)

Both legs:

Down$380.4958.2¢-$380.49

Up$317.1638.3¢+$510.2

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$552.61

Value

—

PnL

-$552.61

Record

57%

71032-54136 (125168)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$350.39

Value

$490.25

PnL

+$139.86

Record

54%

8079-6770 (14849)

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$368.33

Value

—

PnL

-$368.33

Record

57%

12521-9634 (22155)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$367.26

Value

$414.32

PnL

+$47.06

Record

66%

99220-51430 (150650)

Both legs:

Down$204.9155.9¢-$204.91

Up$162.3539.2¢+$251.97

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$380.68

Value

—

PnL

-$380.68

Record

50%

5310-5406 (10716)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$209.81

Value

$353.68

PnL

+$143.87

Record

60%

12290-8128 (20418)

hoodquant

Invested

$316.83

Value

$321

PnL

+$4.17

Record

93%

23629-1777 (25406)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Down

Invested

$238.32

Value

$186.15

PnL

-$52.18

Record

59%

23233-16335 (39568)

Both legs:

Down$160.0263.6¢-$160.02

Up$78.342.1¢+$107.85

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$167.12

Value

—

PnL

-$167.12

Record

58%

37944-27182 (65126)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Down

Invested

$211.05

Value

—

PnL

-$207.35

Record

55%

7489-6150 (13639)

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$232.82

Value

$256.79

PnL

+$23.96

Record

53%

27257-24226 (51483)

Both legs:

Down$91.6962.1¢-$91.69

Up$141.1355¢+$115.65

mo-money

Invested

$371.98

Value

$503.28

PnL

+$131.3

Record

55%

50540-41153 (91693)

asdaefef

Invested

$106.74

Value

$106.82

PnL

+$0.08

Record

66%

125972-64860 (190832)

13897651

Invested

$82.7

Value

$165.4

PnL

+$82.7

Record

59%

6829-4778 (11607)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$97.23

Value

$127.07

PnL

+$29.84

Record

57%

12073-9061 (21134)

Both legs:

Down$51.7481.6¢-$51.74

Up$45.4935.8¢+$81.58

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$67.89

Value

$100

PnL

+$32.11

Record

55%

8689-7147 (15836)

Both legs:

Down$40.3962.7¢-$40.39

Up$27.527.5¢+$72.5

gansinimenCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$81

Value

—

PnL

-$81

Record

51%

17134-16657 (33791)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$46.13

Value

$95.41

PnL

+$49.28

Record

57%

7947-6108 (14055)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$94.24

Value

$100

PnL

+$5.76

Record

58%

60631-44262 (104893)

Both legs:

Invested

$53.66

Value

—

PnL

-$53.66

Record

55%

23937-19330 (43267)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.43

Value

—

PnL

-$8.43

Record

63%

52021-30681 (82702)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 27 top traders (59%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x477b22e3...fe4957

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793392200

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Up — $8.0K

+$8.41

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.2K

NIULAI4

Up — $1.1K

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

sfkjbsr457

Up — $490.25

FairValueMachine

Down — $0

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Down — $0

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $353.68

+$143.87

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