Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET

Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$79.56

Smart Money Signal

12 of 22 top traders (55%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,838

Combined PnL+$412.59

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,249

Combined PnL-$333.02

Up — 55%Down — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7ARB<$100	Upavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$12.33	59% 62303-43482 (105785)
└ Up leg	Upavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$3.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 1.3¢	$15.81	—	-$15.81
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$29.24	93% 23629-1777 (25406)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$359.19	$588.14	+$228.95	58% 37944-27182 (65126)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$305.29	$588.14	+$282.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 22¢	$53.9	—	-$53.9
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 71.4¢	$377.31	$400.14	+$22.83	55% 15551-12973 (28524)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.4¢	$285.69	$400.14	+$114.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.1¢	$91.61	—	-$91.61
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 26.4¢	$124	—	-$124	57% 71032-54136 (125168)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Downavg 4.3¢	$14	—	-$14	55% 8689-7147 (15836)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 52.2¢	$156.61	$300	+$143.39	48% 23316-25650 (48966)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 46.7¢	$142.91	—	-$142.91	57% 7947-6108 (14055)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 93.4¢	$123.68	$121.16	-$2.51	53% 27257-24226 (51483)
└ Down leg	Downavg 7.4¢	$10.53	—	-$10.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 93.4¢	$113.15	$121.16	+$8.01
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 47.4¢	$123.46	$95.67	-$27.79	59% 6829-4778 (11607)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.4¢	$72.16	—	-$72.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.6¢	$51.3	$95.67	+$44.37
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 81.7¢	$188.8	$231.02	+$42.22	54% 8079-6770 (14849)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 74.4¢	$124.29	$123.47	-$0.82	56% 13809-10963 (24772)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.4¢	$91.85	$123.47	+$31.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.4¢	$32.44	—	-$32.44
FairValueMachine	Upavg 74.3¢	$147.55	$187.6	+$40.04	57% 12521-9634 (22155)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 77.5¢	$112.51	$115.75	+$3.24	50% 5310-5406 (10716)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.5¢	$89.68	$115.75	+$26.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.9¢	$22.83	—	-$22.83
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 84.4¢	$106.1	$122.17	+$16.07	59% 23233-16335 (39568)
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.4¢	$103.17	$122.17	+$19
└ Down leg	Downavg 4.1¢	$2.93	—	-$2.93
pspspsps5	Upavg 92.9¢	$157.57	$169.53	+$11.96	46% 38152-45055 (83207)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 51¢	$56.1	$110	+$53.9	57% 10393-7793 (18186)
BoneOhio	Upavg 71¢	$71	$100	+$29	74% 102617-36432 (139049)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 57.2¢	$56.13	$98.17	+$42.04	60% 12290-8128 (20418)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Downavg 19¢	$16.72	—	-$16.72	55% 7489-6150 (13639)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 93.9¢	$53.28	$56.76	+$3.48	49% 78037-81540 (159577)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 71.3¢	$34.84	$46.93	+$12.09	57% 12073-9061 (21134)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 42¢	$18.1	—	-$18.1	34% 18844-35836 (54680)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 79.4¢	$23.54	$29.63	+$6.09	64% 23436-12922 (36358)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 31¢	$9.99	—	-$9.99	66% 112247-58715 (170962)

0x50f7ARB<$100

Invested

$3,020.34

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$12.33

Record

59%

62303-43482 (105785)

Both legs:

Up$3,004.5399.9¢+$3.48

Down$15.811.3¢-$15.81

hoodquant

Invested

$1,471.76

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$29.24

Record

93%

23629-1777 (25406)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$359.19

Value

$588.14

PnL

+$228.95

Record

58%

37944-27182 (65126)

Both legs:

Up$305.2951.9¢+$282.85

Down$53.922¢-$53.9

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$377.31

Value

$400.14

PnL

+$22.83

Record

55%

15551-12973 (28524)

Both legs:

Up$285.6971.4¢+$114.45

Down$91.6126.1¢-$91.61

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$124

Value

—

PnL

-$124

Record

57%

71032-54136 (125168)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14

Value

—

PnL

-$14

Record

55%

8689-7147 (15836)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$156.61

Value

$300

PnL

+$143.39

Record

48%

23316-25650 (48966)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$142.91

Value

—

PnL

-$142.91

Record

57%

7947-6108 (14055)

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$123.68

Value

$121.16

PnL

-$2.51

Record

53%

27257-24226 (51483)

Both legs:

Down$10.537.4¢-$10.53

Up$113.1593.4¢+$8.01

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$123.46

Value

$95.67

PnL

-$27.79

Record

59%

6829-4778 (11607)

Both legs:

Down$72.1647.4¢-$72.16

Up$51.353.6¢+$44.37

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$188.8

Value

$231.02

PnL

+$42.22

Record

54%

8079-6770 (14849)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$124.29

Value

$123.47

PnL

-$0.82

Record

56%

13809-10963 (24772)

Both legs:

Up$91.8574.4¢+$31.62

Down$32.4432.4¢-$32.44

FairValueMachine

Invested

$147.55

Value

$187.6

PnL

+$40.04

Record

57%

12521-9634 (22155)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$112.51

Value

$115.75

PnL

+$3.24

Record

50%

5310-5406 (10716)

Both legs:

Up$89.6877.5¢+$26.07

Down$22.8326.9¢-$22.83

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$106.1

Value

$122.17

PnL

+$16.07

Record

59%

23233-16335 (39568)

Both legs:

Up$103.1784.4¢+$19

Down$2.934.1¢-$2.93

pspspsps5

Invested

$157.57

Value

$169.53

PnL

+$11.96

Record

46%

38152-45055 (83207)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$56.1

Value

$110

PnL

+$53.9

Record

57%

10393-7793 (18186)

BoneOhio

Invested

$71

Value

$100

PnL

+$29

Record

74%

102617-36432 (139049)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$56.13

Value

$98.17

PnL

+$42.04

Record

60%

12290-8128 (20418)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.72

Value

—

PnL

-$16.72

Record

55%

7489-6150 (13639)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$53.28

Value

$56.76

PnL

+$3.48

Record

49%

78037-81540 (159577)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$34.84

Value

$46.93

PnL

+$12.09

Record

57%

12073-9061 (21134)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.1

Value

—

PnL

-$18.1

Record

34%

18844-35836 (54680)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$23.54

Value

$29.63

PnL

+$6.09

Record

64%

23436-12922 (36358)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.99

Value

—

PnL

-$9.99

Record

66%

112247-58715 (170962)

Smart Money Signal

12 of 22 top traders (55%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf44ca370...14604c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793388900

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$12.33

hoodquant

Up — $1.5K

+$29.24

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$228.95

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

machinelearned

Down — $0

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $300

wzbbb

Down — $0

spartacray

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded