Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$78.81

Smart Money Signal

20 of 30 top traders (67%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares7,885

Combined PnL+$372.01

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,883

Combined PnL-$293.2

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$33.05	56% 29373-23030 (52403)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$13.94	93% 23585-1776 (25361)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 68.1¢	$749.63	$868.94	+$119.31	55% 15538-12969 (28507)
NIULAI4	Upavg 91.4¢	$452.23	$494.89	+$42.67	77% 9424-2840 (12264)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 79.4¢	$340.26	$380.26	+$40	54% 8064-6763 (14827)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 77.6¢	$356.41	$365	+$8.59	56% 13796-10960 (24756)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 83.7¢	$224	$242.9	+$18.9	57% 12511-9627 (22138)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 23.2¢	$141.85	$120	-$21.85	58% 37915-27161 (65076)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52¢	$62.4	$120	+$57.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.2¢	$79.45	—	-$79.45
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 27¢	$166	—	-$166	57% 71009-54091 (125100)
machinelearned	Upavg 69.6¢	$100.83	$134.99	+$34.16	55% 8680-7137 (15817)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 76.5¢	$118.78	$107.11	-$11.67	59% 23182-16303 (39485)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.5¢	$81.89	$107.11	+$25.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.2¢	$36.89	—	-$36.89
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 70.2¢	$107.64	$144	+$36.36	60% 12278-8121 (20399)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 62.4¢	$104.87	$108.61	+$3.74	50% 5297-5400 (10697)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.4¢	$67.81	$108.61	+$40.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.2¢	$37.06	—	-$37.06
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 30.3¢	$177.85	$63	-$114.85	57% 7932-6096 (14028)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.3¢	$129.05	—	-$129.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.5¢	$48.8	$63	+$14.2
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 74.7¢	$107.59	$107.38	-$0.21	53% 27246-24218 (51464)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.7¢	$80.26	$107.38	+$27.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 14.8¢	$27.33	—	-$27.33
AS asidjasiodja	Upavg 96.5¢	$123.38	$123.29	-$0.09	61% 95030-59937 (154967)
pspspsps5	Upavg 85.3¢	$96.51	$113.1	+$16.59	46% 38138-45037 (83175)
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Upavg 90¢	$73.07	$73.46	+$0.39	52% 90443-84945 (175388)
└ Up leg	Upavg 90¢	$66.13	$73.46	+$7.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 5.1¢	$6.94	—	-$6.94
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 56¢	$91.4	$100	+$8.6	57% 10380-7788 (18168)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56¢	$56	$100	+$44
└ Down leg	Downavg 59¢	$35.4	—	-$35.4
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 77.6¢	$67.27	$59.37	-$7.9	55% 7477-6143 (13620)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 90¢	$53.64	$54.72	+$1.08	63% 52008-30666 (82674)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 52.8¢	$54.24	$62	+$7.76	59% 6816-4772 (11588)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 8.7¢	$27.93	—	-$27.93	58% 60607-44251 (104858)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 93.4¢	$68.14	$50	-$18.14	57% 12059-9056 (21115)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Downavg 7.7¢	$23.32	—	-$23.32	51% 17125-16653 (33778)

THG.

Invested

$3,271.95

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$33.05

Record

56%

29373-23030 (52403)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,380.05

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.94

Record

93%

23585-1776 (25361)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$749.63

Value

$868.94

PnL

+$119.31

Record

55%

15538-12969 (28507)

NIULAI4

Invested

$452.23

Value

$494.89

PnL

+$42.67

Record

77%

9424-2840 (12264)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$340.26

Value

$380.26

PnL

+$40

Record

54%

8064-6763 (14827)

GoodFallen

Invested

$356.41

Value

$365

PnL

+$8.59

Record

56%

13796-10960 (24756)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$224

Value

$242.9

PnL

+$18.9

Record

57%

12511-9627 (22138)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$141.85

Value

$120

PnL

-$21.85

Record

58%

37915-27161 (65076)

Both legs:

Up$62.452¢+$57.6

Down$79.4523.2¢-$79.45

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$166

Value

—

PnL

-$166

Record

57%

71009-54091 (125100)

machinelearned

Invested

$100.83

Value

$134.99

PnL

+$34.16

Record

55%

8680-7137 (15817)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$118.78

Value

$107.11

PnL

-$11.67

Record

59%

23182-16303 (39485)

Both legs:

Up$81.8976.5¢+$25.22

Down$36.8917.2¢-$36.89

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$107.64

Value

$144

PnL

+$36.36

Record

60%

12278-8121 (20399)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$104.87

Value

$108.61

PnL

+$3.74

Record

50%

5297-5400 (10697)

Both legs:

Up$67.8162.4¢+$40.8

Down$37.0618.2¢-$37.06

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$177.85

Value

$63

PnL

-$114.85

Record

57%

7932-6096 (14028)

Both legs:

Down$129.0530.3¢-$129.05

Up$48.877.5¢+$14.2

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$107.59

Value

$107.38

PnL

-$0.21

Record

53%

27246-24218 (51464)

Both legs:

Up$80.2674.7¢+$27.12

Down$27.3314.8¢-$27.33

asidjasiodja

Invested

$123.38

Value

$123.29

PnL

-$0.09

Record

61%

95030-59937 (154967)

pspspsps5

Invested

$96.51

Value

$113.1

PnL

+$16.59

Record

46%

38138-45037 (83175)

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Invested

$73.07

Value

$73.46

PnL

+$0.39

Record

52%

90443-84945 (175388)

Both legs:

Up$66.1390¢+$7.33

Down$6.945.1¢-$6.94

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$91.4

Value

$100

PnL

+$8.6

Record

57%

10380-7788 (18168)

Both legs:

Up$5656¢+$44

Down$35.459¢-$35.4

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$67.27

Value

$59.37

PnL

-$7.9

Record

55%

7477-6143 (13620)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$53.64

Value

$54.72

PnL

+$1.08

Record

63%

52008-30666 (82674)

13897651<$100

Invested

$54.24

Value

$62

PnL

+$7.76

Record

59%

6816-4772 (11588)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$27.93

Value

—

PnL

-$27.93

Record

58%

60607-44251 (104858)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$68.14

Value

$50

PnL

-$18.14

Record

57%

12059-9056 (21115)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$23.32

Value

—

PnL

-$23.32

Record

51%

17125-16653 (33778)

Smart Money Signal

20 of 30 top traders (67%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb887657e...d3f147

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793388300

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $3.3K

+$33.05

hoodquant

Up — $1.4K

+$13.94

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $868.94

+$119.31

NIULAI4

Up — $494.89

+$42.67

sfkjbsr457

Up — $380.26

+$40

GoodFallen

Up — $365

+$8.59

FairValueMachine

Up — $242.9

+$18.9

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

machinelearned

Up — $134.99

+$34.16

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