Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 69%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

$489.8

Smart Money Signal

21 of 30 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares9,052

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,908

Combined PnL-$840.02

Up — 70%Down — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$33.02	56% 29373-23030 (52403)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 57.3¢	$985.32	$942.67	-$42.65	55% 15538-12969 (28507)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 44.1¢	$1.1K	$2.2K	+$1.1K	58% 37915-27161 (65076)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 62.2¢	$441.93	$398.78	-$43.15	56% 13796-10960 (24756)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 85¢	$412.69	$395.78	-$16.91	54% 8064-6763 (14827)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 63.5¢	$237.52	$321.5	+$87.18	55% 7477-6143 (13620)
SP spartacray	Upavg 61.1¢	$202.89	$275.39	+$72.5	53% 27246-24218 (51464)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 61.6¢	$150.48	$244.47	+$93.99	57% 10380-7788 (18168)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 49.1¢	$178.17	$140.26	-$37.9	59% 6816-4772 (11588)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.1¢	$106.01	—	-$106.01
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$72.15	$140.26	+$68.11
FairValueMachine	Upavg 58.9¢	$138.07	$164.87	+$26.8	57% 12511-9627 (22138)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 91.7¢	$157.56	$154.02	-$3.54	66% 125935-64835 (190770)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$134.64	$136	+$1.36	93% 23585-1776 (25361)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR	Downavg 47.1¢	$213.91	—	-$213.91	60% 12278-8121 (20399)
machinelearned	Upavg 65.5¢	$117.25	$100	-$17.25	55% 8680-7137 (15817)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR	Downavg 44.1¢	$214.37	—	-$214.37	59% 23182-16303 (39485)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 70.5¢	$125.11	$100.12	-$24.99	50% 5297-5400 (10697)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 7.8¢	$140.3	—	-$140.3	57% 71009-54091 (125100)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 28.2¢	$148.87	—	-$148.87	57% 7932-6096 (14028)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 65.4¢	$106.59	$100	-$6.59	51% 17125-16653 (33778)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.9¢	$41.19	—	-$41.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.4¢	$65.4	$100	+$34.6
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2.5¢	$25.05	—	-$25.05	59% 62290-43460 (105750)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 85.2¢	$70.54	$54.17	-$9.89	64% 23388-12902 (36290)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Downavg 52.6¢	$70.89	—	-$70.89	57% 12059-9056 (21115)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 81¢	$121.5	$150	+$28.5	58% 60607-44251 (104858)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100	Upavg 50¢	$17.6	$35.2	+$17.6	48% 23309-25643 (48952)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 74.2¢	$38.23	$51.54	+$13.31	56% 58145-44880 (103025)

THG.

Invested

$3,268.98

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$33.02

Record

56%

29373-23030 (52403)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$985.32

Value

$942.67

PnL

-$42.65

Record

55%

15538-12969 (28507)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$1,080.74

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

58%

37915-27161 (65076)

GoodFallen

Invested

$441.93

Value

$398.78

PnL

-$43.15

Record

56%

13796-10960 (24756)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$412.69

Value

$395.78

PnL

-$16.91

Record

54%

8064-6763 (14827)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$237.52

Value

$321.5

PnL

+$87.18

Record

55%

7477-6143 (13620)

spartacray

Invested

$202.89

Value

$275.39

PnL

+$72.5

Record

53%

27246-24218 (51464)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$150.48

Value

$244.47

PnL

+$93.99

Record

57%

10380-7788 (18168)

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$178.17

Value

$140.26

PnL

-$37.9

Record

59%

6816-4772 (11588)

Both legs:

Down$106.0149.1¢-$106.01

Up$72.1551.4¢+$68.11

FairValueMachine

Invested

$138.07

Value

$164.87

PnL

+$26.8

Record

57%

12511-9627 (22138)

asdaefef

Invested

$157.56

Value

$154.02

PnL

-$3.54

Record

66%

125935-64835 (190770)

hoodquant

Invested

$134.64

Value

$136

PnL

+$1.36

Record

93%

23585-1776 (25361)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR

Down

Invested

$213.91

Value

—

PnL

-$213.91

Record

60%

12278-8121 (20399)

machinelearned

Invested

$117.25

Value

$100

PnL

-$17.25

Record

55%

8680-7137 (15817)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR

Down

Invested

$214.37

Value

—

PnL

-$214.37

Record

59%

23182-16303 (39485)

ply-pm0

Invested

$125.11

Value

$100.12

PnL

-$24.99

Record

50%

5297-5400 (10697)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$140.3

Value

—

PnL

-$140.3

Record

57%

71009-54091 (125100)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$148.87

Value

—

PnL

-$148.87

Record

57%

7932-6096 (14028)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$106.59

Value

$100

PnL

-$6.59

Record

51%

17125-16653 (33778)

Both legs:

Down$41.1973.9¢-$41.19

Up$65.465.4¢+$34.6

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.05

Value

—

PnL

-$25.05

Record

59%

62290-43460 (105750)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$70.54

Value

$54.17

PnL

-$9.89

Record

64%

23388-12902 (36290)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$70.89

Value

—

PnL

-$70.89

Record

57%

12059-9056 (21115)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$121.5

Value

$150

PnL

+$28.5

Record

58%

60607-44251 (104858)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100

Invested

$17.6

Value

$35.2

PnL

+$17.6

Record

48%

23309-25643 (48952)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$38.23

Value

$51.54

PnL

+$13.31

Record

56%

58145-44880 (103025)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 30 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xdb39cfe3...6b5e42

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793388000

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $3.3K

+$33.02

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $942.67

-$42.65

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $2.2K

+$1.1K

GoodFallen

Up — $398.78

-$43.15

sfkjbsr457

Up — $395.78

-$16.91

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $321.5

+$87.18

spartacray

Up — $275.39

+$72.5

trdyugiolkw

Up — $244.47

+$93.99

13897651

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$37.9

FairValueMachine

Up — $164.87

+$26.8

Trade on Polymarket