Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$150.18

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 25 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,821

Combined PnL+$417.79

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,136

Combined PnL-$267.6

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$486.86	$492.06	+$5.2	93% 23585-1776 (25361)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 66.5¢	$427.72	$364.6	-$63.12	54% 8064-6763 (14827)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.5¢	$242.29	$364.6	+$122.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.8¢	$185.42	—	-$185.42
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 45.9¢	$160.07	$177.65	+$17.58	58% 37915-27161 (65076)
SP spartacray	Downavg 64.3¢	$260.61	$320.9	+$60.29	53% 27246-24218 (51464)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 76.3¢	$295.39	$301.46	+$6.07	59% 23182-16303 (39485)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 63¢	$390.95	$600	+$209.05	57% 71009-54091 (125100)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 59.1¢	$170.46	$197.25	+$26.79	57% 7932-6096 (14028)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 80.1¢	$219.97	$187.79	-$32.19	57% 12059-9056 (21115)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 63.3¢	$130.58	$132	+$1.42	55% 7477-6143 (13620)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.5¢	$46.98	—	-$46.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.3¢	$83.6	$132	+$48.4
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 50.5¢	$109.95	—	-$109.95	59% 6816-4772 (11588)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 58.3¢	$140.03	$130.41	-$9.62	51% 17125-16653 (33778)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64¢	$64	—	-$64
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.3¢	$76.03	$130.41	+$54.37
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 54¢	$112.72	$208.75	+$96.02	48% 23309-25643 (48952)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 68.3¢	$86.63	$82.44	-$4.19	50% 5297-5400 (10697)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$5.7	—	-$5.7	59% 62290-43460 (105750)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 94.4¢	$76.84	$73.08	-$3.76	66% 125935-64835 (190770)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$66.3	—	-$66.3	57% 10380-7788 (18168)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 66¢	$53.33	$50	-$3.33	55% 8680-7137 (15817)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$30.61	—	-$30.61	55% 23926-19323 (43249)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 55¢	$31.09	$44	+$12.91	60% 12278-8121 (20399)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 64¢	$25.28	—	-$25.28	64% 40165-22974 (63139)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 80¢	$46.98	$58.73	+$11.75	56% 58145-44880 (103025)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 53¢	$21.65	$17.26	+$10.45	64% 23388-12902 (36290)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 6¢	$10.8	—	+$2.7	51% 20108-19252 (39360)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 20.9¢	$3.73	—	-$3.73	52% 90443-84945 (175388)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 30.5¢	$24	—	-$24	57% 12686-9388 (22074)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$486.86

Value

$492.06

PnL

+$5.2

Record

93%

23585-1776 (25361)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$427.72

Value

$364.6

PnL

-$63.12

Record

54%

8064-6763 (14827)

Both legs:

Down$242.2966.5¢+$122.3

Up$185.4230.8¢-$185.42

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$160.07

Value

$177.65

PnL

+$17.58

Record

58%

37915-27161 (65076)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$260.61

Value

$320.9

PnL

+$60.29

Record

53%

27246-24218 (51464)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$295.39

Value

$301.46

PnL

+$6.07

Record

59%

23182-16303 (39485)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$390.95

Value

$600

PnL

+$209.05

Record

57%

71009-54091 (125100)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$170.46

Value

$197.25

PnL

+$26.79

Record

57%

7932-6096 (14028)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$219.97

Value

$187.79

PnL

-$32.19

Record

57%

12059-9056 (21115)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$130.58

Value

$132

PnL

+$1.42

Record

55%

7477-6143 (13620)

Both legs:

Up$46.9842.5¢-$46.98

Down$83.663.3¢+$48.4

13897651CTR

Invested

$109.95

Value

—

PnL

-$109.95

Record

59%

6816-4772 (11588)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$140.03

Value

$130.41

PnL

-$9.62

Record

51%

17125-16653 (33778)

Both legs:

Up$6464¢-$64

Down$76.0358.3¢+$54.37

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$112.72

Value

$208.75

PnL

+$96.02

Record

48%

23309-25643 (48952)

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$86.63

Value

$82.44

PnL

-$4.19

Record

50%

5297-5400 (10697)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

—

PnL

-$5.7

Record

59%

62290-43460 (105750)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$76.84

Value

$73.08

PnL

-$3.76

Record

66%

125935-64835 (190770)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$66.3

Value

—

PnL

-$66.3

Record

57%

10380-7788 (18168)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$53.33

Value

$50

PnL

-$3.33

Record

55%

8680-7137 (15817)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$30.61

Value

—

PnL

-$30.61

Record

55%

23926-19323 (43249)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$31.09

Value

$44

PnL

+$12.91

Record

60%

12278-8121 (20399)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$25.28

Value

—

PnL

-$25.28

Record

64%

40165-22974 (63139)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$46.98

Value

$58.73

PnL

+$11.75

Record

56%

58145-44880 (103025)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$21.65

Value

$17.26

PnL

+$10.45

Record

64%

23388-12902 (36290)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$10.8

Value

—

PnL

+$2.7

Record

51%

20108-19252 (39360)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$3.73

Value

—

PnL

-$3.73

Record

52%

90443-84945 (175388)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$24

Value

—

PnL

-$24

Record

57%

12686-9388 (22074)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 25 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x690a5dfd...63e6e5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793387700

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $492.06

+$5.2

sfkjbsr457

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$63.12

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $177.65

+$17.58

spartacray

Down — $320.9

+$60.29

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $301.46

+$6.07

uninformedfloww

Down — $600

+$209.05

wzbbb

Down — $197.25

+$26.79

EZTRADENL2

Down — $187.79

-$32.19

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Up — $0