Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$36.94

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 23 top traders (61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,463

Combined PnL+$262.1

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares422

Combined PnL-$299.05

Down — 61%Up — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.2¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$30.8	93% 23585-1776 (25361)
pspspsps5	Downavg 97.7¢	$346.69	$354.68	+$7.99	46% 38138-45037 (83175)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 77.7¢	$686.8	$288.06	-$88.99	54% 8064-6763 (14827)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 65.5¢	$259.61	$283.91	+$24.3	55% 7477-6143 (13620)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.8¢	$84.66	$283.91	+$199.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.5¢	$174.95	—	-$174.95
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 69.9¢	$310.02	$234.31	-$75.7	60% 12278-8121 (20399)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.9¢	$163.82	$234.31	+$70.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 72¢	$146.2	—	-$146.2
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 92.6¢	$384.99	$221.37	-$163.62	59% 23182-16303 (39485)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 56.1¢	$217.86	$210.96	-$6.9	50% 5297-5400 (10697)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 55.2¢	$326.58	$130.33	-$196.25	53% 27246-24218 (51464)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84¢	$109.49	$130.33	+$20.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.2¢	$217.09	—	-$217.09
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 71.8¢	$162.03	$113.49	-$48.54	57% 7932-6096 (14028)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.8¢	$137.47	—	-$137.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.6¢	$24.55	$113.49	+$88.94
machinelearned	Downavg 53.9¢	$106.46	$121.74	+$15.28	55% 8680-7137 (15817)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 72¢	$94.38	—	-$94.38	64% 40165-22974 (63139)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 68.4¢	$88.57	$91.13	+$2.56	52% 90443-84945 (175388)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 33.5¢	$88.39	$263.49	+$175.1	57% 71009-54091 (125100)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 74.9¢	$68.18	$87.72	+$19.54	66% 125935-64835 (190770)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 81.7¢	$60.69	—	-$60.69	55% 23926-19323 (43249)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 56.9¢	$59.01	—	-$59.01	59% 6816-4772 (11588)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 48.7¢	$44.74	—	-$44.74	66% 112233-58692 (170925)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 30.9¢	$21.57	$69.92	+$48.34	57% 12059-9056 (21115)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 63.4¢	$84.71	—	-$12.71	61% 95030-59937 (154967)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 74.8¢	$18.7	—	-$18.7	48% 23309-25643 (48952)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 49¢	$10.47	$21.36	+$10.9	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 70¢	$2.33	—	-$2.33	56% 58145-44880 (103025)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 30¢	$1.5	$5	+$3.5	50% 7854-7882 (15736)
IM Imgonnadoit	Downavg 37¢	$125.93	$0	+$207.61	38% 184-298 (482)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 66¢	$6.79	—	-$6.49	64% 23388-12902 (36290)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,696.87

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$30.8

Record

93%

23585-1776 (25361)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$346.69

Value

$354.68

PnL

+$7.99

Record

46%

38138-45037 (83175)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$686.8

Value

$288.06

PnL

-$88.99

Record

54%

8064-6763 (14827)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$259.61

Value

$283.91

PnL

+$24.3

Record

55%

7477-6143 (13620)

Both legs:

Down$84.6629.8¢+$199.25

Up$174.9565.5¢-$174.95

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$310.02

Value

$234.31

PnL

-$75.7

Record

60%

12278-8121 (20399)

Both legs:

Down$163.8269.9¢+$70.49

Up$146.272¢-$146.2

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$384.99

Value

$221.37

PnL

-$163.62

Record

59%

23182-16303 (39485)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$217.86

Value

$210.96

PnL

-$6.9

Record

50%

5297-5400 (10697)

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$326.58

Value

$130.33

PnL

-$196.25

Record

53%

27246-24218 (51464)

Both legs:

Down$109.4984¢+$20.84

Up$217.0955.2¢-$217.09

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$162.03

Value

$113.49

PnL

-$48.54

Record

57%

7932-6096 (14028)

Both legs:

Up$137.4771.8¢-$137.47

Down$24.5521.6¢+$88.94

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$106.46

Value

$121.74

PnL

+$15.28

Record

55%

8680-7137 (15817)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$94.38

Value

—

PnL

-$94.38

Record

64%

40165-22974 (63139)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$88.57

Value

$91.13

PnL

+$2.56

Record

52%

90443-84945 (175388)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$88.39

Value

$263.49

PnL

+$175.1

Record

57%

71009-54091 (125100)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$68.18

Value

$87.72

PnL

+$19.54

Record

66%

125935-64835 (190770)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$60.69

Value

—

PnL

-$60.69

Record

55%

23926-19323 (43249)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$59.01

Value

—

PnL

-$59.01

Record

59%

6816-4772 (11588)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$44.74

Value

—

PnL

-$44.74

Record

66%

112233-58692 (170925)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$21.57

Value

$69.92

PnL

+$48.34

Record

57%

12059-9056 (21115)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$84.71

Value

—

PnL

-$12.71

Record

61%

95030-59937 (154967)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$18.7

Value

—

PnL

-$18.7

Record

48%

23309-25643 (48952)

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$10.47

Value

$21.36

PnL

+$10.9

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$2.33

Value

—

PnL

-$2.33

Record

56%

58145-44880 (103025)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$1.5

Value

PnL

+$3.5

Record

50%

7854-7882 (15736)

Imgonnadoit

Down

Invested

$125.93

Value

PnL

+$207.61

Record

38%

184-298 (482)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$6.79

Value

—

PnL

-$6.49

Record

64%

23388-12902 (36290)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 23 top traders (61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4b584da2...206797

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793387400

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.7K

+$30.8

pspspsps5

Down — $354.68

+$7.99

sfkjbsr457

Down — $288.06

-$88.99

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$24.3

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$75.7

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $221.37

-$163.62

ply-pm0

Down — $210.96

spartacray

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Down — $121.74

+$15.28

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