Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 30 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,883

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Up18 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,246

Combined PnL+$351.28

Down — 40%Up — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 41.2¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	57% 71009-54091 (125100)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 53.4¢	$423.31	$429.29	+$5.98	50% 5297-5400 (10697)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 59.1¢	$349.01	$346.43	-$2.59	60% 12278-8121 (20399)
NIULAI4	Upavg 91.3¢	$264.8	$290	+$25.2	77% 9424-2840 (12264)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 53.5¢	$335.86	—	-$335.86	57% 7932-6096 (14028)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 61.6¢	$272.16	$248.27	-$23.89	55% 7477-6143 (13620)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 47.7¢	$141.99	—	-$141.99	58% 37915-27161 (65076)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$176.08	$97.78	-$78.3	59% 6816-4772 (11588)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.7¢	$123.06	—	-$123.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.2¢	$53.02	$97.78	+$44.76
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Downavg 51.7¢	$145.26	$153.44	+$8.18	59% 23182-16303 (39485)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.7¢	$94.48	—	-$94.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.1¢	$50.78	$153.44	+$102.67
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 55¢	$165	$300	+$135	48% 23309-25643 (48952)
SP spartacrayCTR	Downavg 67.7¢	$218.7	—	-$218.7	53% 27246-24218 (51464)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 89.6¢	$129.56	$144.52	+$14.96	58% 60607-44251 (104858)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Downavg 60.6¢	$125.57	—	-$125.57	57% 12059-9056 (21115)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98¢	$105.81	$107.97	+$2.16	93% 23585-1776 (25361)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$32.33	$53.44	+$21.11	56% 58145-44880 (103025)
machinelearned	Upavg 48.5¢	$50.97	$105.09	+$54.12	55% 8680-7137 (15817)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 51¢	$39.27	$77	+$37.73	57% 10380-7788 (18168)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Downavg 61.6¢	$40.99	—	-$40.99	55% 23926-19323 (43249)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$29.19	—	-$29.19	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 39.5¢	$77.14	—	-$77.14	66% 112233-58692 (170925)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 53.6¢	$32.09	$52.68	+$20.59	64% 23388-12902 (36290)
Bossgirl<$100	Upavg 17.1¢	$8.21	$48	+$39.79	54% 4631-3934 (8565)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 42.4¢	$25.1	—	-$25.1	52% 90443-84945 (175388)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Downavg 70.1¢	$12.85	—	-$12.85	65% 4069-2205 (6274)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 59.5¢	$12.79	$21.5	+$8.71	46% 38138-45037 (83175)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$1,497.5

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

57%

71009-54091 (125100)

ply-pm0

Invested

$423.31

Value

$429.29

PnL

+$5.98

Record

50%

5297-5400 (10697)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$349.01

Value

$346.43

PnL

-$2.59

Record

60%

12278-8121 (20399)

NIULAI4

Invested

$264.8

Value

$290

PnL

+$25.2

Record

77%

9424-2840 (12264)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$335.86

Value

—

PnL

-$335.86

Record

57%

7932-6096 (14028)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$272.16

Value

$248.27

PnL

-$23.89

Record

55%

7477-6143 (13620)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$141.99

Value

—

PnL

-$141.99

Record

58%

37915-27161 (65076)

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$176.08

Value

$97.78

PnL

-$78.3

Record

59%

6816-4772 (11588)

Both legs:

Down$123.0647.7¢-$123.06

Up$53.0254.2¢+$44.76

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Down

Invested

$145.26

Value

$153.44

PnL

+$8.18

Record

59%

23182-16303 (39485)

Both legs:

Down$94.4851.7¢-$94.48

Up$50.7833.1¢+$102.67

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$165

Value

$300

PnL

+$135

Record

48%

23309-25643 (48952)

spartacrayCTR

Down

Invested

$218.7

Value

—

PnL

-$218.7

Record

53%

27246-24218 (51464)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$129.56

Value

$144.52

PnL

+$14.96

Record

58%

60607-44251 (104858)

EZTRADENL2CTR

Down

Invested

$125.57

Value

—

PnL

-$125.57

Record

57%

12059-9056 (21115)

hoodquant

Invested

$105.81

Value

$107.97

PnL

+$2.16

Record

93%

23585-1776 (25361)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$32.33

Value

$53.44

PnL

+$21.11

Record

56%

58145-44880 (103025)

machinelearned

Invested

$50.97

Value

$105.09

PnL

+$54.12

Record

55%

8680-7137 (15817)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$39.27

Value

$77

PnL

+$37.73

Record

57%

10380-7788 (18168)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.99

Value

—

PnL

-$40.99

Record

55%

23926-19323 (43249)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.19

Value

—

PnL

-$29.19

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$77.14

Value

—

PnL

-$77.14

Record

66%

112233-58692 (170925)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$32.09

Value

$52.68

PnL

+$20.59

Record

64%

23388-12902 (36290)

Bossgirl<$100

Invested

$8.21

Value

$48

PnL

+$39.79

Record

54%

4631-3934 (8565)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.1

Value

—

PnL

-$25.1

Record

52%

90443-84945 (175388)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.85

Value

—

PnL

-$12.85

Record

65%

4069-2205 (6274)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$12.79

Value

$21.5

PnL

+$8.71

Record

46%

38138-45037 (83175)

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 30 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe068f563...3eb49a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793387100

Traders in this Market

uninformedfloww

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.5K

ply-pm0

Up — $429.29

+$5.98

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $346.43

-$2.59

NIULAI4

Up — $290

+$25.2

wzbbb

CTR

Down — $0

-$335.86

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $248.27

-$23.89

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$8.18

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $300

+$135

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