Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 81%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$836.87

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 28 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,181

Combined PnL+$870.75

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares177

Combined PnL-$33.88

Down — 79%Up — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$16.66	93% 23585-1776 (25361)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 81¢	$938	$1.2K	+$220.73	57% 71009-54091 (125100)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 82.1¢	$319.15	$312.28	-$6.88	54% 8064-6763 (14827)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.1¢	$256.53	$312.28	+$55.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.9¢	$62.63	—	-$62.63
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 96¢	$287.89	$300	+$12.11	48% 23309-25643 (48952)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 69.1¢	$199.6	$258	+$58.4	57% 7932-6096 (14028)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 77.5¢	$208.85	$240.76	+$31.91	60% 12278-8121 (20399)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 52.5¢	$221.3	$239.02	+$17.71	59% 6816-4772 (11588)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.5¢	$125.57	$239.02	+$113.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.9¢	$95.73	—	-$95.73
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 49.5¢	$190.7	$385.36	+$194.66	58% 37915-27161 (65076)
SP spartacray	Downavg 81.2¢	$157.42	$188.41	+$30.99	53% 27246-24218 (51464)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 72.2¢	$137.82	$179.76	+$41.94	51% 17125-16653 (33778)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 82.1¢	$138.56	$148.46	+$9.89	50% 5297-5400 (10697)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 49¢	$137.17	$279.95	+$142.77	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 92.9¢	$89.55	$96.37	+$6.82	49% 78011-81515 (159526)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 67¢	$81.67	$121.89	+$40.22	56% 58145-44880 (103025)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 76.2¢	$70.59	$92.58	+$21.99	55% 8680-7137 (15817)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 97¢	$71.44	$43.99	-$27.44	55% 7477-6143 (13620)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 64.8¢	$38.9	$60	+$21.1	57% 12059-9056 (21115)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 70¢	$42	$60	+$18	57% 10380-7788 (18168)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 65.6¢	$19.92	$30.38	+$10.46	66% 112233-58692 (170925)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 77.1¢	$18.66	$24.22	+$5.56	66% 125935-64835 (190770)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 74.9¢	$15.79	$21.07	+$5.28	61% 95030-59937 (154967)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 75.8¢	$16.55	$21.84	+$5.29	52% 90443-84945 (175388)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 88¢	$17.6	$20	+$2.4	55% 23926-19323 (43249)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$10.5	—	-$10.5	58% 51019-37168 (88187)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 12.7¢	$11.02	—	-$11.02	51% 20108-19252 (39360)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,423.77

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$16.66

Record

93%

23585-1776 (25361)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$938

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$220.73

Record

57%

71009-54091 (125100)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$319.15

Value

$312.28

PnL

-$6.88

Record

54%

8064-6763 (14827)

Both legs:

Down$256.5382.1¢+$55.75

Up$62.6316.9¢-$62.63

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$287.89

Value

$300

PnL

+$12.11

Record

48%

23309-25643 (48952)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$199.6

Value

$258

PnL

+$58.4

Record

57%

7932-6096 (14028)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$208.85

Value

$240.76

PnL

+$31.91

Record

60%

12278-8121 (20399)

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$221.3

Value

$239.02

PnL

+$17.71

Record

59%

6816-4772 (11588)

Both legs:

Down$125.5752.5¢+$113.45

Up$95.7348.9¢-$95.73

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$190.7

Value

$385.36

PnL

+$194.66

Record

58%

37915-27161 (65076)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$157.42

Value

$188.41

PnL

+$30.99

Record

53%

27246-24218 (51464)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$137.82

Value

$179.76

PnL

+$41.94

Record

51%

17125-16653 (33778)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$138.56

Value

$148.46

PnL

+$9.89

Record

50%

5297-5400 (10697)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$137.17

Value

$279.95

PnL

+$142.77

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$89.55

Value

$96.37

PnL

+$6.82

Record

49%

78011-81515 (159526)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$81.67

Value

$121.89

PnL

+$40.22

Record

56%

58145-44880 (103025)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$70.59

Value

$92.58

PnL

+$21.99

Record

55%

8680-7137 (15817)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$71.44

Value

$43.99

PnL

-$27.44

Record

55%

7477-6143 (13620)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$38.9

Value

$60

PnL

+$21.1

Record

57%

12059-9056 (21115)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$42

Value

$60

PnL

+$18

Record

57%

10380-7788 (18168)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$19.92

Value

$30.38

PnL

+$10.46

Record

66%

112233-58692 (170925)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$18.66

Value

$24.22

PnL

+$5.56

Record

66%

125935-64835 (190770)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$15.79

Value

$21.07

PnL

+$5.28

Record

61%

95030-59937 (154967)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$16.55

Value

$21.84

PnL

+$5.29

Record

52%

90443-84945 (175388)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$17.6

Value

$20

PnL

+$2.4

Record

55%

23926-19323 (43249)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$10.5

Value

—

PnL

-$10.5

Record

58%

51019-37168 (88187)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$11.02

Value

—

PnL

-$11.02

Record

51%

20108-19252 (39360)

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 28 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x22e4ee11...519bc8

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793386800

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.4K

+$16.66

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.2K

+$220.73

sfkjbsr457

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$6.88

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $300

+$12.11

wzbbb

Down — $258

+$58.4

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $240.76

+$31.91

13897651

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$17.71

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $385.36

+$194.66

spartacray

Down — $188.41

+$30.99

gansinimen

Down — $179.76

+$41.94

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