Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Up 79%
1 arb excluded
$19.2K
$218.71
Smart Money Signal
16 of 20 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$9.03 | 59% 62290-43460 (105750) |
AR arcsine-barrister | Upavg 94¢ | $7.5K | $8.0K | +$130.3 | 56% 3646-2827 (6473) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Upavg 98.7¢ | $350.33 | $354.94 | +$4.61 | 48% 23309-25643 (48952) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 92.5¢ | $335.52 | $362.72 | +$27.2 | 46% 38138-45037 (83175) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 95.2¢ | $274.86 | $270.6 | -$4.27 | 54% 8064-6763 (14827) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 61.5¢ | $258.13 | $321.72 | +$63.58 | 59% 6816-4772 (11588) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.5¢ | $197.96 | $321.72 | +$123.76 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37¢ | $60.18 | — | -$60.18 | |
SP spartacray | Upavg 91.8¢ | $174.94 | $190.48 | +$15.54 | 53% 27246-24218 (51464) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 89.1¢ | $154.44 | $168.25 | +$13.81 | 55% 7477-6143 (13620) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 30.2¢ | $58.62 | — | -$58.62 | 57% 7932-6096 (14028) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 60.8¢ | $81.19 | $133.57 | +$52.38 | 57% 10380-7788 (18168) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $77.32 | $60 | -$17.32 | 50% 5297-5400 (10697) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 73.3¢ | $65.99 | $89.99 | +$24 | 57% 12059-9056 (21115) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $29.24 | $40.54 | +$11.3 | 66% 112233-58692 (170925) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $49.17 | $59.99 | +$10.82 | 64% 23388-12902 (36290) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $25.47 | $23.18 | -$2.29 | 60% 12278-8121 (20399) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 85.2¢ | $24.08 | $28.28 | +$4.2 | 52% 90443-84945 (175388) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $33.6 | $40 | +$6.4 | 55% 8680-7137 (15817) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $4.1 | — | -$4.1 | 46% 7988-9443 (17431) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 27¢ | $1.68 | — | -$1.68 | 61% 95030-59937 (154967) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 4.5¢ | $2.6 | — | -$2.6 | 66% 125935-64835 (190770) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20108-19252 (39360) |
Invested
$9,016.99
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$9.03
Record
59%
62290-43460 (105750)
Invested
$7,520
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$130.3
Record
56%
3646-2827 (6473)
Invested
$350.33
Value
$354.94
PnL
+$4.61
Record
48%
23309-25643 (48952)
pspspsps5Invested
$335.52
Value
$362.72
PnL
+$27.2
Record
46%
38138-45037 (83175)
Invested
$274.86
Value
$270.6
PnL
-$4.27
Record
54%
8064-6763 (14827)
Invested
$258.13
Value
$321.72
PnL
+$63.58
Record
59%
6816-4772 (11588)
Both legs:
Invested
$174.94
Value
$190.48
PnL
+$15.54
Record
53%
27246-24218 (51464)
Invested
$154.44
Value
$168.25
PnL
+$13.81
Record
55%
7477-6143 (13620)
Invested
$58.62
Value
—
PnL
-$58.62
Record
57%
7932-6096 (14028)
Invested
$81.19
Value
$133.57
PnL
+$52.38
Record
57%
10380-7788 (18168)
Invested
$77.32
Value
$60
PnL
-$17.32
Record
50%
5297-5400 (10697)
Invested
$65.99
Value
$89.99
PnL
+$24
Record
57%
12059-9056 (21115)
Invested
$29.24
Value
$40.54
PnL
+$11.3
Record
66%
112233-58692 (170925)
Invested
$49.17
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$10.82
Record
64%
23388-12902 (36290)
Invested
$25.47
Value
$23.18
PnL
-$2.29
Record
60%
12278-8121 (20399)
Invested
$24.08
Value
$28.28
PnL
+$4.2
Record
52%
90443-84945 (175388)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$33.6
Value
$40
PnL
+$6.4
Record
55%
8680-7137 (15817)
Invested
$4.1
Value
—
PnL
-$4.1
Record
46%
7988-9443 (17431)
Invested
$1.68
Value
—
PnL
-$1.68
Record
61%
95030-59937 (154967)
Invested
$2.6
Value
—
PnL
-$2.6
Record
66%
125935-64835 (190770)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20108-19252 (39360)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $9.0K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $8.0K
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
Up — $354.94
pspspsps5
Up — $362.72
sfkjbsr457
Up — $270.6
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
spartacray
Up — $190.48
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $168.25
wzbbb
CTRDown — $0
trdyugiolkw
Up — $133.57