Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 82%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$54.2K

Combined PnL

$3.9K

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 35 top traders (83%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down29 traders

Total Value$42.9K

Total Shares42,884

Combined PnL+$8.0K

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,563

Combined PnL$-4.0K

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$8.9K	$9.0K	+$90.08	59% 62290-43460 (105750)
BO borderlocket	Downavg 52.6¢	$7.9K	$15.0K	+$7.1K	49% 67-70 (137)
31 3123123121313ARB<$100	Downavg 56.7¢	$5.0K	$5.3K	+$271.78	56% 671-535 (1206)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.7¢	$3.0K	$5.3K	+$2.3K
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.7¢	$2.0K	—	$-2.0K
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100	Downavg 59¢	$4.9K	$4.4K	-$476.55	52% 401-367 (768)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59¢	$2.6K	$4.4K	+$1.8K
└ Up leg	Upavg 47¢	$2.3K	—	$-2.3K
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 55.5¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$86.26	53% 2012-1815 (3827)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 60¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$381.4	57% 71009-54091 (125100)
AtomforgeCTR	Upavg 36.6¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.4K	65% 4069-2205 (6274)
NIULAI4	Downavg 81.3¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$257	77% 9424-2840 (12264)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 93.7¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$110.18	93% 23585-1776 (25361)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 64.5¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$352.9	55% 15538-12969 (28507)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 67.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$53.54	50% 5297-5400 (10697)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 65.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$4.3	54% 8064-6763 (14827)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.6¢	$689.71	$1.1K	+$361.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.7¢	$365.99	—	-$365.99
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 64.7¢	$839.34	$956.31	+$116.96	60% 12278-8121 (20399)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 62.6¢	$935.37	$873.06	-$62.31	56% 13796-10960 (24756)
SP spartacray	Downavg 64¢	$783.47	$847.57	+$64.09	53% 27246-24218 (51464)
machinelearned	Downavg 76.3¢	$759.6	$666.39	-$93.21	55% 8680-7137 (15817)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 78.2¢	$808.92	$664.85	-$144.06	55% 7477-6143 (13620)
GA gansinimenCTR	Upavg 31.4¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	51% 17125-16653 (33778)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 45.2¢	$529.26	$269.54	-$259.72	58% 37915-27161 (65076)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$136.11	$269.54	+$133.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.2¢	$393.15	—	-$393.15
FairValueMachine	Downavg 66.8¢	$444.41	$390.87	-$53.54	57% 12511-9627 (22138)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 61.9¢	$268.88	$369.67	+$100.79	55% 17905-14498 (32403)
ohioism	Downavg 71.5¢	$259.5	$300	+$40.5	64% 40165-22974 (63139)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 76.6¢	$229.5	$299.43	+$69.93	56% 58145-44880 (103025)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 51.1¢	$208.7	$239.99	+$31.3	57% 12059-9056 (21115)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 52.2¢	$165.87	$185.19	+$19.32	59% 23182-16303 (39485)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$8,917.93

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$90.08

Record

59%

62290-43460 (105750)

borderlocket

Down

Invested

$7,919.01

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$7.1K

Record

49%

67-70 (137)

3123123121313ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,994.85

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$271.78

Record

56%

671-535 (1206)

Both legs:

Down$2,986.4956.7¢+$2.3K

Up$2,008.3739.7¢$-2.0K

oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,918.68

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$476.55

Record

52%

401-367 (768)

Both legs:

Down$2,622.2659¢+$1.8K

Up$2,296.4147¢$-2.3K

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down

Invested

$2,385.02

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$86.26

Record

53%

2012-1815 (3827)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$2,207.42

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$381.4

Record

57%

71009-54091 (125100)

AtomforgeCTR

Invested

$2,351.29

Value

—

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

65%

4069-2205 (6274)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$2,105.86

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$257

Record

77%

9424-2840 (12264)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,645.82

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$110.18

Record

93%

23585-1776 (25361)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,914.87

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$352.9

Record

55%

15538-12969 (28507)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$1,215.75

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$53.54

Record

50%

5297-5400 (10697)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,055.7

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$4.3

Record

54%

8064-6763 (14827)

Both legs:

Down$689.7165.6¢+$361.7

Up$365.9937.7¢-$365.99

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$839.34

Value

$956.31

PnL

+$116.96

Record

60%

12278-8121 (20399)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$935.37

Value

$873.06

PnL

-$62.31

Record

56%

13796-10960 (24756)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$783.47

Value

$847.57

PnL

+$64.09

Record

53%

27246-24218 (51464)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$759.6

Value

$666.39

PnL

-$93.21

Record

55%

8680-7137 (15817)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$808.92

Value

$664.85

PnL

-$144.06

Record

55%

7477-6143 (13620)

gansinimenCTR

Invested

$1,201.58

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

51%

17125-16653 (33778)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$529.26

Value

$269.54

PnL

-$259.72

Record

58%

37915-27161 (65076)

Both legs:

Down$136.1150.5¢+$133.43

Up$393.1545.2¢-$393.15

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$444.41

Value

$390.87

PnL

-$53.54

Record

57%

12511-9627 (22138)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$268.88

Value

$369.67

PnL

+$100.79

Record

55%

17905-14498 (32403)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$259.5

Value

$300

PnL

+$40.5

Record

64%

40165-22974 (63139)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$229.5

Value

$299.43

PnL

+$69.93

Record

56%

58145-44880 (103025)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$208.7

Value

$239.99

PnL

+$31.3

Record

57%

12059-9056 (21115)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$165.87

Value

$185.19

PnL

+$19.32

Record

59%

23182-16303 (39485)

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 35 top traders (83%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1ea13313...507dbb

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793383800

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $9.0K

+$90.08

borderlocket

Down — $15.0K

3123123121313

Arbitrage — excluded

oxe78sh4w98

Arbitrage — excluded

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down — $2.5K

+$86.26

uninformedfloww

Down — $2.6K

+$381.4

Atomforge

CTR

Up — $0

$-2.4K

NIULAI4

Down — $2.4K

+$257

hoodquant

Down — $1.8K

+$110.18

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.6K

-$352.9

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