Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 39% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 35%

20 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.9K

Combined PnL

$-4.8K

Smart Money Signal

7 of 18 top traders (39%)20 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares14,307

Combined PnL$-5.2K

Down11 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,635

Combined PnL+$388.59

Up — 39%Down — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO borderlocketCTR	Upavg 36.3¢	$4.7K	—	$-4.7K	49% 67-70 (137)
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100	Downavg 53.5¢	$6.6K	$6.4K	+$6.2K	52% 401-367 (768)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.5¢	$3.4K	$6.4K	+$3.0K
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.5¢	$664.24	—	+$3.2K
AtomforgeARB<$100	Downavg 47.5¢	$2.3K	$3.0K	+$732.09	65% 4069-2205 (6274)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.5¢	$1.4K	$3.0K	+$1.6K
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.4¢	$867.38	—	-$867.38
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$115.27	53% 2012-1815 (3827)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.4¢	$846.76	—	-$846.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$912.52	$1.6K	+$731.49
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 57.2¢	$1.8K	$2.4K	+$590.67	57% 71009-54091 (125100)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.2¢	$1.4K	$2.4K	+$1.0K
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.1¢	$447.35	—	-$447.35
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 62.4¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$42.87	55% 15538-12969 (28507)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.8¢	$364.9	—	-$364.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.4¢	$676.1	$1.1K	+$407.77
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 67.5¢	$643.59	$608.76	-$34.82	50% 5297-5400 (10697)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.5¢	$410.96	$608.76	+$197.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.4¢	$232.63	—	-$232.63
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 61.4¢	$575.3	$662.18	+$86.88	60% 12278-8121 (20399)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.4¢	$406.9	$662.18	+$255.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.2¢	$168.39	—	-$168.39
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 59.5¢	$522.15	$503.89	-$18.26	56% 13796-10960 (24756)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.7¢	$222.11	—	-$222.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.5¢	$300.04	$503.89	+$203.85
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 79.8¢	$734.6	$644.5	-$90.1	55% 8680-7137 (15817)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.8¢	$514.11	$644.5	+$130.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.1¢	$220.49	—	-$220.49
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 73.3¢	$522.39	$376.04	-$146.36	53% 27246-24218 (51464)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.7¢	$246.59	—	-$246.59
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.3¢	$275.81	$376.04	+$100.23
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 74.3¢	$485.91	$340.04	-$145.87	55% 7477-6143 (13620)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.8¢	$233.2	—	-$233.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.3¢	$252.71	$340.04	+$87.33
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 45.3¢	$385.94	—	-$385.94	58% 37915-27161 (65076)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Downavg 72.4¢	$404.35	$317.92	-$86.44	59% 23182-16303 (39485)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.6¢	$174.19	—	-$174.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.4¢	$230.17	$317.92	+$87.75
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$626.22	$639	+$12.78	93% 23585-1776 (25361)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 77.7¢	$172.11	$175	+$2.89	57% 7932-6096 (14028)
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.4¢	$36.15	—	-$36.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.7¢	$135.96	$175	+$39.04
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$179.01	$203.46	+$24.45	51% 17125-16653 (33778)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.5¢	$174.01	$203.46	+$29.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 2.5¢	$5	—	-$5
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 54.3¢	$205.79	$147.41	-$58.38	59% 6816-4772 (11588)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.3¢	$133.95	—	-$133.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.7¢	$71.84	$147.41	+$75.57
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 66.3¢	$185.49	$148.3	-$37.2	57% 12511-9627 (22138)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.4¢	$87.16	—	-$87.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.3¢	$98.33	$148.3	+$49.96
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Upavg 44.9¢	$187.23	$96.28	-$90.95	55% 17905-14498 (32403)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.9¢	$130.83	—	-$130.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.6¢	$56.4	$96.28	+$39.88
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 9.3¢	$33.32	—	-$33.32	46% 38138-45037 (83175)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 70.5¢	$188.79	$189.98	+$1.19	57% 12059-9056 (21115)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.5¢	$133.99	$189.98	+$55.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$54.8	—	-$54.8
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 72.6¢	$181.5	$250	+$68.5	58% 60607-44251 (104858)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 68.1¢	$121.2	$140	+$18.8	55% 23926-19323 (43249)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.1¢	$95.4	$140	+$44.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 43¢	$25.8	—	-$25.8
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 59.6¢	$97.2	$163.21	+$66.01	57% 10380-7788 (18168)

borderlocketCTR

Invested

$4,666.3

Value

—

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

49%

67-70 (137)

oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$6,646.33

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

52%

401-367 (768)

Both legs:

Down$3,441.3353.5¢+$3.0K

Up$664.2439.5¢+$3.2K

AtomforgeARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,314.78

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$732.09

Record

65%

4069-2205 (6274)

Both legs:

Down$1,447.4147.5¢+$1.6K

Up$867.3842.4¢-$867.38

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,759.28

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$115.27

Record

53%

2012-1815 (3827)

Both legs:

Up$846.7640.4¢-$846.76

Down$912.5255.5¢+$731.49

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,836.57

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$590.67

Record

57%

71009-54091 (125100)

Both legs:

Down$1,389.2357.2¢+$1.0K

Up$447.3543.1¢-$447.35

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,041

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$42.87

Record

55%

15538-12969 (28507)

Both legs:

Up$364.932.8¢-$364.9

Down$676.162.4¢+$407.77

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$643.59

Value

$608.76

PnL

-$34.82

Record

50%

5297-5400 (10697)

Both legs:

Down$410.9667.5¢+$197.81

Up$232.6338.4¢-$232.63

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$575.3

Value

$662.18

PnL

+$86.88

Record

60%

12278-8121 (20399)

Both legs:

Down$406.961.4¢+$255.27

Up$168.3941.2¢-$168.39

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$522.15

Value

$503.89

PnL

-$18.26

Record

56%

13796-10960 (24756)

Both legs:

Up$222.1140.7¢-$222.11

Down$300.0459.5¢+$203.85

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$734.6

Value

$644.5

PnL

-$90.1

Record

55%

8680-7137 (15817)

Both legs:

Down$514.1179.8¢+$130.39

Up$220.4955.1¢-$220.49

spartacrayARB<$100

Down

Invested

$522.39

Value

$376.04

PnL

-$146.36

Record

53%

27246-24218 (51464)

Both legs:

Up$246.5945.7¢-$246.59

Down$275.8173.3¢+$100.23

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$485.91

Value

$340.04

PnL

-$145.87

Record

55%

7477-6143 (13620)

Both legs:

Up$233.240.8¢-$233.2

Down$252.7174.3¢+$87.33

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$385.94

Value

—

PnL

-$385.94

Record

58%

37915-27161 (65076)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Down

Invested

$404.35

Value

$317.92

PnL

-$86.44

Record

59%

23182-16303 (39485)

Both legs:

Up$174.1942.6¢-$174.19

Down$230.1772.4¢+$87.75

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$626.22

Value

$639

PnL

+$12.78

Record

93%

23585-1776 (25361)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$172.11

Value

$175

PnL

+$2.89

Record

57%

7932-6096 (14028)

Both legs:

Up$36.1515.4¢-$36.15

Down$135.9677.7¢+$39.04

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$179.01

Value

$203.46

PnL

+$24.45

Record

51%

17125-16653 (33778)

Both legs:

Down$174.0185.5¢+$29.45

Up$52.5¢-$5

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$205.79

Value

$147.41

PnL

-$58.38

Record

59%

6816-4772 (11588)

Both legs:

Up$133.9554.3¢-$133.95

Down$71.8448.7¢+$75.57

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$185.49

Value

$148.3

PnL

-$37.2

Record

57%

12511-9627 (22138)

Both legs:

Up$87.1636.4¢-$87.16

Down$98.3366.3¢+$49.96

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Invested

$187.23

Value

$96.28

PnL

-$90.95

Record

55%

17905-14498 (32403)

Both legs:

Up$130.8344.9¢-$130.83

Down$56.458.6¢+$39.88

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$33.32

Value

—

PnL

-$33.32

Record

46%

38138-45037 (83175)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$188.79

Value

$189.98

PnL

+$1.19

Record

57%

12059-9056 (21115)

Both legs:

Down$133.9970.5¢+$55.99

Up$54.849.8¢-$54.8

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$181.5

Value

$250

PnL

+$68.5

Record

58%

60607-44251 (104858)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$121.2

Value

$140

PnL

+$18.8

Record

55%

23926-19323 (43249)

Both legs:

Invested

$97.2

Value

$163.21

PnL

+$66.01

Record

57%

10380-7788 (18168)

Smart Money Signal

7 of 18 top traders (39%)20 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x50205807...61fe6d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793383200

Traders in this Market

borderlocket

Up — $0

oxe78sh4w98

Arbitrage — excluded

Atomforge

Arbitrage — excluded

0xdc27...afdd9a

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded