Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 42%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$-3.4K

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 29 top traders (45%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares7,558

Combined PnL$-5.5K

Down13 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares7,704

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Up — 55%Down — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 47.7¢	$2.3K	—	$-2.3K	55% 15538-12969 (28507)
NIULAI4	Downavg 68¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$41	77% 9417-2836 (12253)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$17.65	93% 23541-1774 (25315)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 43.6¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	56% 13796-10960 (24756)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 84¢	$844.68	—	-$844.68	56% 14501-11415 (25916)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 53.8¢	$804.19	$796.99	-$7.2	57% 12511-9627 (22138)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 51.1¢	$574.05	$593.23	+$19.18	49% 5284-5393 (10677)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.1¢	$303.25	$593.23	+$289.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.5¢	$270.8	—	-$270.8
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 76.2¢	$509.25	$436.32	-$72.93	54% 8051-6754 (14805)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.2¢	$344.27	—	-$344.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.8¢	$164.98	$436.32	+$271.34
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 71.3¢	$430.35	$448.57	+$18.23	59% 23182-16303 (39485)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.3¢	$247	—	-$247
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.9¢	$183.35	$448.57	+$265.22
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 62.1¢	$285.81	$340.5	+$54.7	58% 37890-27130 (65020)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 63.4¢	$110.85	—	-$110.85	57% 7914-6084 (13998)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 22.5¢	$571.41	$2.5K	+$2.0K	57% 70965-54043 (125008)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR	Upavg 80.1¢	$341.94	—	-$341.94	55% 17859-14473 (32332)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 60.4¢	$247.41	$252.48	+$5.07	57% 12048-9048 (21096)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 72.7¢	$228.52	$167.92	-$60.6	53% 27238-24207 (51445)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.7¢	$176.54	—	-$176.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 31¢	$51.98	$167.92	+$115.94
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 92.6¢	$806.3	$124.96	-$681.34	55% 8670-7127 (15797)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.5¢	$60.56	$124.96	+$64.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 92.6¢	$745.74	—	-$745.74
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 95¢	$155.9	—	-$155.9	46% 38121-45024 (83145)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 8.1¢	$98.54	—	-$98.54	66% 125885-64811 (190696)
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Downavg 33.3¢	$45.44	$68.36	+$22.92	52% 90403-84904 (175307)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.3¢	$22.75	$68.36	+$45.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 5.8¢	$22.69	—	-$22.69
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$91.3	—	-$91.3	59% 6804-4763 (11567)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Upavg 88¢	$88	—	-$88	51% 17112-16648 (33760)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 9.8¢	$45.8	—	-$39.8	61% 94986-59906 (154892)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 25.1¢	$29.91	—	-$29.91	66% 112214-58657 (170871)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Upavg 62¢	$54.56	—	-$54.56	60% 12263-8116 (20379)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 54¢	$13.54	$16.44	+$2.9	63% 51987-30635 (82622)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$2,330.46

Value

—

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

55%

15538-12969 (28507)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$1,864.65

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$41

Record

77%

9417-2836 (12253)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,719.35

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$17.65

Record

93%

23541-1774 (25315)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$1,238.73

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

56%

13796-10960 (24756)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$844.68

Value

—

PnL

-$844.68

Record

56%

14501-11415 (25916)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$804.19

Value

$796.99

PnL

-$7.2

Record

57%

12511-9627 (22138)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$574.05

Value

$593.23

PnL

+$19.18

Record

49%

5284-5393 (10677)

Both legs:

Down$303.2551.1¢+$289.98

Up$270.814.5¢-$270.8

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$509.25

Value

$436.32

PnL

-$72.93

Record

54%

8051-6754 (14805)

Both legs:

Up$344.2776.2¢-$344.27

Down$164.9837.8¢+$271.34

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$430.35

Value

$448.57

PnL

+$18.23

Record

59%

23182-16303 (39485)

Both legs:

Up$24771.3¢-$247

Down$183.3540.9¢+$265.22

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$285.81

Value

$340.5

PnL

+$54.7

Record

58%

37890-27130 (65020)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$110.85

Value

—

PnL

-$110.85

Record

57%

7914-6084 (13998)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$571.41

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

57%

70965-54043 (125008)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR

Invested

$341.94

Value

—

PnL

-$341.94

Record

55%

17859-14473 (32332)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$247.41

Value

$252.48

PnL

+$5.07

Record

57%

12048-9048 (21096)

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$228.52

Value

$167.92

PnL

-$60.6

Record

53%

27238-24207 (51445)

Both legs:

Up$176.5472.7¢-$176.54

Down$51.9831¢+$115.94

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$806.3

Value

$124.96

PnL

-$681.34

Record

55%

8670-7127 (15797)

Both legs:

Down$60.5648.5¢+$64.4

Up$745.7492.6¢-$745.74

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$155.9

Value

—

PnL

-$155.9

Record

46%

38121-45024 (83145)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$98.54

Value

—

PnL

-$98.54

Record

66%

125885-64811 (190696)

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Down

Invested

$45.44

Value

$68.36

PnL

+$22.92

Record

52%

90403-84904 (175307)

Both legs:

Down$22.7533.3¢+$45.61

Up$22.695.8¢-$22.69

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$91.3

Value

—

PnL

-$91.3

Record

59%

6804-4763 (11567)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Invested

$88

Value

—

PnL

-$88

Record

51%

17112-16648 (33760)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$45.8

Value

—

PnL

-$39.8

Record

61%

94986-59906 (154892)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$29.91

Value

—

PnL

-$29.91

Record

66%

112214-58657 (170871)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Invested

$54.56

Value

—

PnL

-$54.56

Record

60%

12263-8116 (20379)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$13.54

Value

$16.44

PnL

+$2.9

Record

63%

51987-30635 (82622)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 29 top traders (45%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0c76cb39...700859

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793382000

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Up — $0

$-2.3K

NIULAI4

Down — $1.9K

+$41

hoodquant

Down — $1.7K

GoodFallen

Up — $0

CrouchPredictions

Up — $0

FairValueMachine

Down — $796.99

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$18.23

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $340.5

+$54.7

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