Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

Resolved Up. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 59%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$252.98

Smart Money Signal

10 of 18 top traders (56%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,431

Combined PnL+$152.35

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares633

Combined PnL-$405.33

Up — 56%Down — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 48.4¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$279.33	55% 15538-12969 (28507)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.4¢	$915.52	$1.9K	+$975.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.9¢	$695.84	—	-$695.84
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 46.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$75.34	56% 14501-11415 (25916)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 46.2¢	$975.09	$1.2K	+$222.7	56% 13796-10960 (24756)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.2¢	$553.54	$1.2K	+$644.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.1¢	$421.55	—	-$421.55
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 53.5¢	$608.97	$633.7	+$24.74	57% 12511-9627 (22138)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.5¢	$338.75	$633.7	+$294.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$270.22	—	-$270.22
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 73.1¢	$681.43	$418.63	-$262.8	57% 70965-54043 (125008)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.6¢	$211.81	$418.63	+$206.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.1¢	$469.62	—	-$469.62
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 70.7¢	$415.13	$381.33	-$33.8	77% 9417-2836 (12253)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.7¢	$269.51	$381.33	+$111.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.1¢	$145.62	—	-$145.62
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 78.9¢	$306.83	$239.26	-$67.57	49% 5284-5393 (10677)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 69.3¢	$272.75	$225.43	-$47.32	54% 8051-6754 (14805)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 73.4¢	$251.64	$237.53	-$14.11	57% 12048-9048 (21096)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$117.31	$237.53	+$120.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.4¢	$134.33	—	-$134.33
SP spartacray	Upavg 57¢	$197.62	$244.44	+$46.82	53% 27238-24207 (51445)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 49.5¢	$185.89	$193.23	+$7.34	59% 23182-16303 (39485)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$95.58	$193.23	+$97.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.2¢	$90.31	—	-$90.31
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 66¢	$138.1	$163	+$24.9	57% 7914-6084 (13998)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 54.5¢	$225.21	$47.5	-$177.71	55% 8670-7127 (15797)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.5¢	$211.51	—	-$211.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.8¢	$13.7	$47.5	+$33.8
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 54.3¢	$134.84	$124.74	-$10.09	59% 6804-4763 (11567)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.6¢	$67.07	—	-$67.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.3¢	$67.77	$124.74	+$56.97
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR	Downavg 72.5¢	$284.49	—	-$284.49	55% 17859-14473 (32332)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 98¢	$82.32	$84	+$1.68	93% 23541-1774 (25315)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 71.4¢	$86.66	$92.46	+$5.8	66% 125885-64811 (190696)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 72¢	$61.21	$60	-$1.21	64% 23325-12863 (36188)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 29.7¢	$49.18	$132	+$82.82	60% 12263-8116 (20379)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 18.1¢	$14.14	—	-$14.14	52% 90403-84904 (175307)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Downavg 68.9¢	$32.33	—	-$32.33	55% 7468-6132 (13600)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$40.08	—	-$40.08	55% 23916-19315 (43231)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 64¢	$21.44	—	-$21.44	58% 60586-44234 (104820)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 48.2¢	$25.78	—	+$2.04	61% 94986-59906 (154892)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 16¢	$5.92	$37.01	+$31.09	51% 20092-19247 (39339)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,611.36

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$279.33

Record

55%

15538-12969 (28507)

Both legs:

Up$915.5248.4¢+$975.17

Down$695.8446.9¢-$695.84

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,077.57

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$75.34

Record

56%

14501-11415 (25916)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$975.09

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$222.7

Record

56%

13796-10960 (24756)

Both legs:

Up$553.5446.2¢+$644.25

Down$421.5547.1¢-$421.55

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$608.97

Value

$633.7

PnL

+$24.74

Record

57%

12511-9627 (22138)

Both legs:

Up$338.7553.5¢+$294.95

Down$270.2249.9¢-$270.22

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$681.43

Value

$418.63

PnL

-$262.8

Record

57%

70965-54043 (125008)

Both legs:

Up$211.8150.6¢+$206.82

Down$469.6273.1¢-$469.62

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$415.13

Value

$381.33

PnL

-$33.8

Record

77%

9417-2836 (12253)

Both legs:

Up$269.5170.7¢+$111.82

Down$145.6238.1¢-$145.62

ply-pm0

Invested

$306.83

Value

$239.26

PnL

-$67.57

Record

49%

5284-5393 (10677)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$272.75

Value

$225.43

PnL

-$47.32

Record

54%

8051-6754 (14805)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$251.64

Value

$237.53

PnL

-$14.11

Record

57%

12048-9048 (21096)

Both legs:

Up$117.3149.4¢+$120.22

Down$134.3373.4¢-$134.33

spartacray

Invested

$197.62

Value

$244.44

PnL

+$46.82

Record

53%

27238-24207 (51445)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$185.89

Value

$193.23

PnL

+$7.34

Record

59%

23182-16303 (39485)

Both legs:

Up$95.5849.5¢+$97.65

Down$90.3148.2¢-$90.31

wzbbb

Invested

$138.1

Value

$163

PnL

+$24.9

Record

57%

7914-6084 (13998)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$225.21

Value

$47.5

PnL

-$177.71

Record

55%

8670-7127 (15797)

Both legs:

Down$211.5154.5¢-$211.51

Up$13.728.8¢+$33.8

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$134.84

Value

$124.74

PnL

-$10.09

Record

59%

6804-4763 (11567)

Both legs:

Down$67.0747.6¢-$67.07

Up$67.7754.3¢+$56.97

Kathod-Shi-14CTR

Down

Invested

$284.49

Value

—

PnL

-$284.49

Record

55%

17859-14473 (32332)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$82.32

Value

$84

PnL

+$1.68

Record

93%

23541-1774 (25315)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$86.66

Value

$92.46

PnL

+$5.8

Record

66%

125885-64811 (190696)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$61.21

Value

$60

PnL

-$1.21

Record

64%

23325-12863 (36188)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$49.18

Value

$132

PnL

+$82.82

Record

60%

12263-8116 (20379)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.14

Value

—

PnL

-$14.14

Record

52%

90403-84904 (175307)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.33

Value

—

PnL

-$32.33

Record

55%

7468-6132 (13600)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.08

Value

—

PnL

-$40.08

Record

55%

23916-19315 (43231)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.44

Value

—

PnL

-$21.44

Record

58%

60586-44234 (104820)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.78

Value

—

PnL

+$2.04

Record

61%

94986-59906 (154892)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$5.92

Value

$37.01

PnL

+$31.09

Record

51%

20092-19247 (39339)

Smart Money Signal

10 of 18 top traders (56%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1e5b208f...9a04b5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793381700

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$279.33

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.2K

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Up — $239.26

-$67.57

sfkjbsr457

Up — $225.43

-$47.32

EZTRADENL2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$14.11

spartacray

Up — $244.44

+$46.82

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