Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET

Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$281.24

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 28 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,442

Combined PnL+$475.18

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,381

Combined PnL-$193.94

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.5¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$36.68	93% 23541-1774 (25315)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 75.9¢	$891.98	$929.87	+$37.89	56% 14501-11415 (25916)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 57.9¢	$449.85	$497.76	+$47.91	55% 15538-12969 (28507)
machinelearned	Downavg 81.9¢	$291.6	$350	+$58.4	55% 8670-7127 (15797)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 73.5¢	$298.78	$322.13	+$23.35	59% 23182-16303 (39485)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 43.3¢	$145.88	$295.28	+$149.4	57% 12511-9627 (22138)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 47.5¢	$180.11	$247.93	+$67.82	56% 13796-10960 (24756)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 75¢	$217.14	$219.17	+$2.04	49% 5284-5393 (10677)
SP spartacray	Downavg 75.1¢	$193.72	$217.74	+$24.02	53% 27238-24207 (51445)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 41¢	$156.27	$282.55	+$126.28	58% 37890-27130 (65020)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41¢	$115.72	$282.55	+$166.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.2¢	$40.55	—	-$40.55
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 83.4¢	$146.74	$124.22	-$22.51	54% 8051-6754 (14805)
DV dvasdkasodk	Downavg 97.2¢	$129.63	$124	-$5.63	52% 90403-84904 (175307)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 73¢	$108.47	$139.3	+$30.83	55% 17859-14473 (32332)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 52.3¢	$117.25	$62.14	-$55.11	59% 6804-4763 (11567)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.3¢	$89.91	—	-$89.91
└ Down leg	Downavg 44¢	$27.34	$62.14	+$34.8
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 97¢	$101.91	$103	+$1.09	49% 77987-81500 (159487)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 78.1¢	$76.69	$89.99	+$13.3	57% 12048-9048 (21096)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 61.9¢	$63.58	$68	+$4.42	57% 7914-6084 (13998)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 65.3¢	$54.71	$60	+$5.29	55% 23916-19315 (43231)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 85.1¢	$36.65	$38.36	+$3.45	61% 94986-59906 (154892)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 70.9¢	$31.53	$44.48	+$12.95	66% 125885-64811 (190696)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 47.4¢	$31.71	$35.32	+$3.61	66% 112214-58657 (170871)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 97¢	$32.65	$30.19	-$2.45	46% 38121-45024 (83145)
GA gansinimen<$100	Downavg 90¢	$46.4	$29.72	-$16.68	51% 17112-16648 (33760)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$15.91	—	-$15.91	64% 40142-22964 (63106)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$2.7	—	-$2.7	51% 20092-19247 (39339)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,438.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$36.68

Record

93%

23541-1774 (25315)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$891.98

Value

$929.87

PnL

+$37.89

Record

56%

14501-11415 (25916)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$449.85

Value

$497.76

PnL

+$47.91

Record

55%

15538-12969 (28507)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$291.6

Value

$350

PnL

+$58.4

Record

55%

8670-7127 (15797)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$298.78

Value

$322.13

PnL

+$23.35

Record

59%

23182-16303 (39485)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$145.88

Value

$295.28

PnL

+$149.4

Record

57%

12511-9627 (22138)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$180.11

Value

$247.93

PnL

+$67.82

Record

56%

13796-10960 (24756)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$217.14

Value

$219.17

PnL

+$2.04

Record

49%

5284-5393 (10677)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$193.72

Value

$217.74

PnL

+$24.02

Record

53%

27238-24207 (51445)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$156.27

Value

$282.55

PnL

+$126.28

Record

58%

37890-27130 (65020)

Both legs:

Down$115.7241¢+$166.83

Up$40.5541.2¢-$40.55

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$146.74

Value

$124.22

PnL

-$22.51

Record

54%

8051-6754 (14805)

dvasdkasodk

Down

Invested

$129.63

Value

$124

PnL

-$5.63

Record

52%

90403-84904 (175307)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$108.47

Value

$139.3

PnL

+$30.83

Record

55%

17859-14473 (32332)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$117.25

Value

$62.14

PnL

-$55.11

Record

59%

6804-4763 (11567)

Both legs:

Invested

$101.91

Value

$103

PnL

+$1.09

Record

49%

77987-81500 (159487)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$76.69

Value

$89.99

PnL

+$13.3

Record

57%

12048-9048 (21096)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$63.58

Value

$68

PnL

+$4.42

Record

57%

7914-6084 (13998)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$54.71

Value

$60

PnL

+$5.29

Record

55%

23916-19315 (43231)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$36.65

Value

$38.36

PnL

+$3.45

Record

61%

94986-59906 (154892)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$31.53

Value

$44.48

PnL

+$12.95

Record

66%

125885-64811 (190696)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$31.71

Value

$35.32

PnL

+$3.61

Record

66%

112214-58657 (170871)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$32.65

Value

$30.19

PnL

-$2.45

Record

46%

38121-45024 (83145)

gansinimen<$100

Down

Invested

$46.4

Value

$29.72

PnL

-$16.68

Record

51%

17112-16648 (33760)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$15.91

Value

—

PnL

-$15.91

Record

64%

40142-22964 (63106)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

—

PnL

-$2.7

Record

51%

20092-19247 (39339)

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 28 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xfd2f4e67...892584

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793381400

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.5K

+$36.68

CrouchPredictions

Down — $929.87

+$37.89

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $497.76

+$47.91

machinelearned

Down — $350

+$58.4

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $322.13

+$23.35

FairValueMachine

Down — $295.28

+$149.4

GoodFallen

Down — $247.93

+$67.82

ply-pm0

Down — $219.17

+$2.04

spartacray

Down — $217.74

+$24.02

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$126.28

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