Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 33%

18 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

-$157.8

Smart Money Signal

5 of 15 top traders (33%)18 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,439

Combined PnL+$533.73

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,034

Combined PnL-$691.53

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Up	$7.9K	$7.9K	+$64.66	56% 3645-2827 (6472)
└ Down leg	Down	—	—	$-4.7K
└ Up leg	Up	$7.9K	$7.9K	+$4.8K
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$180.25	55% 15538-12969 (28507)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.2¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K
└ Up leg	Upavg 45¢	$756.31	$1.7K	+$925.42
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 51.6¢	$933.47	$912.09	-$21.38	56% 13796-10960 (24756)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.6¢	$521.38	—	-$521.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.2¢	$412.1	$912.09	+$499.99
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 64.7¢	$873.07	$869.59	-$3.48	56% 14501-11415 (25916)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.7¢	$452.58	—	-$452.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.4¢	$420.49	$869.59	+$449.1
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 52.8¢	$758.88	$527.81	-$231.06	57% 12511-9627 (22138)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.8¢	$473.5	—	-$473.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.1¢	$285.38	$527.81	+$242.44
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 44.7¢	$478.04	$494.41	+$16.37	49% 5284-5393 (10677)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.7¢	$264.17	—	-$264.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.3¢	$213.88	$494.41	+$280.53
NIULAI4	Upavg 56.3¢	$584.83	$1.0K	+$454.58	77% 9417-2836 (12253)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 68.1¢	$311.56	$343.18	+$31.61	53% 27238-24207 (51445)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.1¢	$184.24	—	-$184.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.1¢	$127.32	$343.18	+$215.85
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR	Downavg 68.1¢	$330.3	—	-$330.3	59% 23182-16303 (39485)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 66.1¢	$364.79	$410.94	+$46.15	57% 7914-6084 (13998)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.1¢	$271.44	$410.94	+$139.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.4¢	$93.35	—	-$93.35
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 42.1¢	$159.27	$268.88	+$109.61	58% 37890-27130 (65020)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.1¢	$113.21	$268.88	+$155.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.6¢	$46.06	—	-$46.06
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 41.2¢	$180.42	$337.07	+$156.64	54% 8051-6754 (14805)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.2¢	$138.76	$337.07	+$198.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.4¢	$41.66	—	-$41.66
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 46.5¢	$163.31	$197.85	+$34.54	57% 12048-9048 (21096)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.9¢	$71.3	—	-$71.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.5¢	$92.01	$197.85	+$105.85
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 53¢	$130.25	$175.78	+$45.53	55% 8670-7127 (15797)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.5¢	$37.03	—	-$37.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 53¢	$93.21	$175.78	+$82.56
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 58.1¢	$142.36	$198.92	+$56.56	59% 6804-4763 (11567)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.1¢	$115.62	$198.92	+$83.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 40¢	$26.74	—	-$26.74
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 66.5¢	$143.58	$123.07	-$20.51	66% 125885-64811 (190696)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$61.75	—	-$61.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.5¢	$81.83	$123.07	+$41.24
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Upavg 87.4¢	$139.87	$138.8	+$1.45	61% 94986-59906 (154892)
└ Down leg	Downavg 15.9¢	$15.95	—	-$15.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 87.4¢	$121.3	$138.8	+$17.4
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$258.39	$261	+$2.61	93% 23541-1774 (25315)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$75.3	—	-$75.3	58% 60586-44234 (104820)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 36.4¢	$77.44	$108.15	+$34.01	55% 7468-6132 (13600)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.4¢	$35.59	—	-$34.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.4¢	$39.33	$108.15	+$68.83
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$58.5	—	-$58.5	34% 18828-35821 (54649)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 59.7¢	$86.34	$59.06	-$27.28	66% 112214-58657 (170871)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.7¢	$46.35	—	-$46.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.7¢	$39.99	$59.06	+$19.07
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 70.5¢	$84.2	$80	-$4.2	55% 23916-19315 (43231)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.3¢	$27.8	—	-$27.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.5¢	$56.4	$80	+$23.6
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 66.8¢	$74.48	—	-$74.48	55% 17859-14473 (32332)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 50.6¢	$51.22	—	-$51.22	56% 58116-44865 (102981)

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$7,920.21

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$64.66

Record

56%

3645-2827 (6472)

Both legs:

Down——$-4.7K

Up$7,920.21—+$4.8K

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,861.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$180.25

Record

55%

15538-12969 (28507)

Both legs:

Down$1,105.6756.2¢$-1.1K

Up$756.3145¢+$925.42

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$933.47

Value

$912.09

PnL

-$21.38

Record

56%

13796-10960 (24756)

Both legs:

Down$521.3851.6¢-$521.38

Up$412.145.2¢+$499.99

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$873.07

Value

$869.59

PnL

-$3.48

Record

56%

14501-11415 (25916)

Both legs:

Down$452.5864.7¢-$452.58

Up$420.4948.4¢+$449.1

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$758.88

Value

$527.81

PnL

-$231.06

Record

57%

12511-9627 (22138)

Both legs:

Down$473.552.8¢-$473.5

Up$285.3854.1¢+$242.44

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$478.04

Value

$494.41

PnL

+$16.37

Record

49%

5284-5393 (10677)

Both legs:

Down$264.1744.7¢-$264.17

Up$213.8843.3¢+$280.53

NIULAI4

Invested

$584.83

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$454.58

Record

77%

9417-2836 (12253)

spartacrayARB<$100

Down

Invested

$311.56

Value

$343.18

PnL

+$31.61

Record

53%

27238-24207 (51445)

Both legs:

Down$184.2468.1¢-$184.24

Up$127.3237.1¢+$215.85

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR

Down

Invested

$330.3

Value

—

PnL

-$330.3

Record

59%

23182-16303 (39485)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$364.79

Value

$410.94

PnL

+$46.15

Record

57%

7914-6084 (13998)

Both legs:

Up$271.4466.1¢+$139.5

Down$93.3571.4¢-$93.35

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$159.27

Value

$268.88

PnL

+$109.61

Record

58%

37890-27130 (65020)

Both legs:

Up$113.2142.1¢+$155.67

Down$46.0628.6¢-$46.06

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$180.42

Value

$337.07

PnL

+$156.64

Record

54%

8051-6754 (14805)

Both legs:

Up$138.7641.2¢+$198.3

Down$41.6640.4¢-$41.66

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$163.31

Value

$197.85

PnL

+$34.54

Record

57%

12048-9048 (21096)

Both legs:

Down$71.354.9¢-$71.3

Up$92.0146.5¢+$105.85

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$130.25

Value

$175.78

PnL

+$45.53

Record

55%

8670-7127 (15797)

Both legs:

Down$37.0330.5¢-$37.03

Up$93.2153¢+$82.56

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$142.36

Value

$198.92

PnL

+$56.56

Record

59%

6804-4763 (11567)

Both legs:

Up$115.6258.1¢+$83.3

Down$26.7440¢-$26.74

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$143.58

Value

$123.07

PnL

-$20.51

Record

66%

125885-64811 (190696)

Both legs:

Down$61.7550¢-$61.75

Up$81.8366.5¢+$41.24

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Invested

$139.87

Value

$138.8

PnL

+$1.45

Record

61%

94986-59906 (154892)

Both legs:

Down$15.9515.9¢-$15.95

Up$121.387.4¢+$17.4

hoodquant

Invested

$258.39

Value

$261

PnL

+$2.61

Record

93%

23541-1774 (25315)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$75.3

Value

—

PnL

-$75.3

Record

58%

60586-44234 (104820)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$77.44

Value

$108.15

PnL

+$34.01

Record

55%

7468-6132 (13600)

Both legs:

Down$35.5950.4¢-$34.81

Up$39.3336.4¢+$68.83

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$58.5

Value

—

PnL

-$58.5

Record

34%

18828-35821 (54649)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$86.34

Value

$59.06

PnL

-$27.28

Record

66%

112214-58657 (170871)

Both legs:

Down$46.3559.7¢-$46.35

Up$39.9967.7¢+$19.07

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$84.2

Value

$80

PnL

-$4.2

Record

55%

23916-19315 (43231)

Both legs:

Down$27.846.3¢-$27.8

Up$56.470.5¢+$23.6

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$74.48

Value

—

PnL

-$74.48

Record

55%

17859-14473 (32332)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$51.22

Value

—

PnL

-$51.22

Record

56%

58116-44865 (102981)

Smart Money Signal

5 of 15 top traders (33%)18 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xf9042895...f8bfe2

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793381100

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$64.66

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Up — $1.0K

+$454.58

spartacray

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$31.61

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $0

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded