Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET

Resolved Up. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 84%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.1K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Signal

27 of 32 top traders (84%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up27 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares10,613

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares501

Combined PnL-$290.11

Up — 84%Down — 16%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$32.95	56% 29369-23030 (52399)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 51.1¢	$2.5K	$3.6K	+$1.1K	57% 70965-54043 (125008)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.6¢	$675.52	—	-$675.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.1¢	$1.8K	$3.6K	+$1.7K
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 52.8¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$218.9	55% 15538-12969 (28507)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.3¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.8¢	$1.4K	$2.7K	+$1.3K
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 60.1¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$152.95	56% 14501-11415 (25916)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$21.98	93% 23541-1774 (25315)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$256.62	56% 13796-10960 (24756)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.5¢	$538.47	—	-$538.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$781.61	$1.6K	+$795.09
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 56.7¢	$801.41	$751.72	-$49.68	57% 12511-9627 (22138)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.7¢	$375.19	—	-$375.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.7¢	$426.22	$751.72	+$325.51
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 54.8¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$555.69	77% 9417-2836 (12253)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.8¢	$919.03	$1.7K	+$757.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.8¢	$202.02	—	-$202.02
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 57.4¢	$490.51	$546.1	+$55.6	49% 5284-5393 (10677)
machinelearned	Upavg 41¢	$264.28	$350	+$85.72	55% 8670-7127 (15797)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 53.8¢	$458.07	$499.97	+$41.89	51% 17112-16648 (33760)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.3¢	$189.09	—	-$189.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.8¢	$268.98	$499.97	+$230.99
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 70.3¢	$522.34	$388.88	-$133.45	53% 27238-24207 (51445)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.3¢	$289.22	—	-$289.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.9¢	$233.12	$388.88	+$155.76
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 64.1¢	$322.29	$338.19	+$15.9	60% 12263-8116 (20379)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.2¢	$105.53	—	-$105.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.1¢	$216.76	$338.19	+$121.43
BI bibana100ARB<$100	Downavg 37¢	$200	$242.3	+$42.3	— 2-1 (3)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.3¢	$100	$242.3	+$142.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 37¢	$100	—	-$100
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 34.2¢	$139.99	—	-$139.99	57% 7914-6084 (13998)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 77¢	$318.12	$249.99	-$68.13	55% 7468-6132 (13600)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.2¢	$125.67	—	-$125.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 77¢	$192.46	$249.99	+$57.53
PB PBot-6	Upavg 48.5¢	$194	$399.99	+$206	58% 51009-37160 (88169)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 58.9¢	$419.02	$705.78	+$286.77	55% 17859-14473 (32332)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Upavg 21.3¢	$114	$375	+$261	56% 58116-44865 (102981)
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.3¢	$80	$375	+$295
└ Down leg	Downavg 34¢	$34	—	-$34
DV dvasdkasodk	Upavg 56.2¢	$91.67	$109.59	+$17.92	52% 90403-84904 (175307)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 49¢	$147	$300	+$153	48% 23305-25635 (48940)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 49.3¢	$145.5	$295	+$149.5	57% 10363-7780 (18143)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 97.1¢	$132.09	$136	+$3.91	58% 37890-27130 (65020)
LI Little-big	Upavg 49¢	$122.5	$250	+$127.5	34% 18828-35821 (54649)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$101.1	$122.94	+$21.85	54% 8051-6754 (14805)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$63.14	$122.94	+$59.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.8¢	$37.95	—	-$37.95

THG.

Invested

$3,262.05

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$32.95

Record

56%

29369-23030 (52399)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$2,499.69

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

57%

70965-54043 (125008)

Both legs:

Down$675.5234.6¢-$675.52

Up$1,824.1751.1¢+$1.7K

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$2,444.79

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$218.9

Record

55%

15538-12969 (28507)

Both legs:

Down$1,038.3948.3¢$-1.0K

Up$1,406.452.8¢+$1.3K

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,345.72

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$152.95

Record

56%

14501-11415 (25916)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,406.02

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$21.98

Record

93%

23541-1774 (25315)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$1,320.08

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$256.62

Record

56%

13796-10960 (24756)

Both legs:

Down$538.4748.5¢-$538.47

Up$781.6149.6¢+$795.09

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$801.41

Value

$751.72

PnL

-$49.68

Record

57%

12511-9627 (22138)

Both legs:

Down$375.1950.7¢-$375.19

Up$426.2256.7¢+$325.51

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$1,121.05

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$555.69

Record

77%

9417-2836 (12253)

Both legs:

Up$919.0354.8¢+$757.71

Down$202.0283.8¢-$202.02

ply-pm0

Invested

$490.51

Value

$546.1

PnL

+$55.6

Record

49%

5284-5393 (10677)

machinelearned

Invested

$264.28

Value

$350

PnL

+$85.72

Record

55%

8670-7127 (15797)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$458.07

Value

$499.97

PnL

+$41.89

Record

51%

17112-16648 (33760)

Both legs:

Down$189.0948.3¢-$189.09

Up$268.9853.8¢+$230.99

spartacrayARB<$100

Down

Invested

$522.34

Value

$388.88

PnL

-$133.45

Record

53%

27238-24207 (51445)

Both legs:

Down$289.2270.3¢-$289.22

Up$233.1259.9¢+$155.76

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$322.29

Value

$338.19

PnL

+$15.9

Record

60%

12263-8116 (20379)

Both legs:

Down$105.5335.2¢-$105.53

Up$216.7664.1¢+$121.43

bibana100ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$200

Value

$242.3

PnL

+$42.3

Record

—

2-1 (3)

Both legs:

Invested

$139.99

Value

—

PnL

-$139.99

Record

57%

7914-6084 (13998)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$318.12

Value

$249.99

PnL

-$68.13

Record

55%

7468-6132 (13600)

Both legs:

Down$125.6763.2¢-$125.67

Up$192.4677¢+$57.53

PBot-6

Invested

$194

Value

$399.99

PnL

+$206

Record

58%

51009-37160 (88169)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$419.02

Value

$705.78

PnL

+$286.77

Record

55%

17859-14473 (32332)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Invested

$114

Value

$375

PnL

+$261

Record

56%

58116-44865 (102981)

Both legs:

Up$8021.3¢+$295

Down$3434¢-$34

dvasdkasodk

Invested

$91.67

Value

$109.59

PnL

+$17.92

Record

52%

90403-84904 (175307)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$147

Value

$300

PnL

+$153

Record

48%

23305-25635 (48940)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$145.5

Value

$295

PnL

+$149.5

Record

57%

10363-7780 (18143)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$132.09

Value

$136

PnL

+$3.91

Record

58%

37890-27130 (65020)

Little-big

Invested

$122.5

Value

$250

PnL

+$127.5

Record

34%

18828-35821 (54649)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$101.1

Value

$122.94

PnL

+$21.85

Record

54%

8051-6754 (14805)

Both legs:

Up$63.1451.4¢+$59.8

Down$37.9530.8¢-$37.95

Smart Money Signal

27 of 32 top traders (84%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xed803b99...4ebc11

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793378100

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $3.3K

+$32.95

uninformedfloww

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$1.1K

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$218.9

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.5K

+$152.95

hoodquant

Up — $1.4K

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Up — $546.1

+$55.6

machinelearned

Up — $350

+$85.72

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