Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
31
Down 87%
1 arb excluded
$38.8K
-$18.36
Smart Money Signal
26 of 31 top traders (84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $34.1K | $34.1K | +$10.19 | 59% 62273-43446 (105719) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$18.03 | 93% 23541-1774 (25315) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 79.8¢ | $632.23 | $741.16 | +$108.93 | 56% 14501-11415 (25916) |
BI bibana100CTR | Upavg 20.3¢ | $300 | — | -$300 | — 2-1 (3) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Downavg 86.6¢ | $359.89 | $363.18 | +$3.29 | 54% 8051-6754 (14805) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 72.3¢ | $361.11 | $363.26 | +$2.15 | 55% 15538-12969 (28507) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 81¢ | $303.75 | $375 | +$71.25 | 57% 70965-54043 (125008) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 82¢ | $131.75 | $150 | +$18.25 | 49% 5284-5393 (10677) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 74.6¢ | $103.35 | $135.39 | +$32.04 | 55% 17859-14473 (32332) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 87.8¢ | $117.4 | $127.39 | +$9.99 | 65% 4064-2202 (6266) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 89.6¢ | $100.44 | $112.14 | +$11.7 | 55% 8670-7127 (15797) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 72¢ | $73 | $100 | +$27 | 51% 17112-16648 (33760) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.3¢ | $86.79 | — | -$86.79 | 59% 6804-4763 (11567) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $77.94 | $78 | +$0.06 | 49% 77987-81500 (159487) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 94.9¢ | $75.1 | $77.25 | +$2.15 | 52% 90403-84904 (175307) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $66 | $60 | -$6 | 57% 12511-9627 (22138) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.7¢ | $27.6 | — | -$27.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64¢ | $38.4 | $60 | +$21.6 | |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 91.3¢ | $77.3 | $67.24 | -$10.06 | 57% 7914-6084 (13998) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $81.12 | $60 | -$21.12 | 53% 27238-24207 (51445) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 86.9¢ | $54.28 | $62.44 | +$8.16 | 66% 125885-64811 (190696) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 50.5¢ | $59.58 | $117.96 | +$58.38 | 57% 10363-7780 (18143) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 66.3¢ | $52.84 | $62.76 | +$9.92 | 56% 13796-10960 (24756) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $44.44 | $44 | -$0.44 | 60% 12263-8116 (20379) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 92.6¢ | $37.33 | $39.51 | +$2.42 | 61% 94986-59906 (154892) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $25.34 | $28.57 | +$6.68 | 55% 7468-6132 (13600) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 77.7¢ | $46.6 | $60 | +$13.4 | 57% 12048-9048 (21096) |
Invested
$34,077.98
Value
$34.1K
PnL
+$10.19
Record
59%
62273-43446 (105719)
Invested
$1,357.97
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$18.03
Record
93%
23541-1774 (25315)
Invested
$632.23
Value
$741.16
PnL
+$108.93
Record
56%
14501-11415 (25916)
Invested
$300
Value
—
PnL
-$300
Record
—
2-1 (3)
Invested
$359.89
Value
$363.18
PnL
+$3.29
Record
54%
8051-6754 (14805)
Invested
$361.11
Value
$363.26
PnL
+$2.15
Record
55%
15538-12969 (28507)
Invested
$303.75
Value
$375
PnL
+$71.25
Record
57%
70965-54043 (125008)
Invested
$131.75
Value
$150
PnL
+$18.25
Record
49%
5284-5393 (10677)
Invested
$103.35
Value
$135.39
PnL
+$32.04
Record
55%
17859-14473 (32332)
AtomforgeInvested
$117.4
Value
$127.39
PnL
+$9.99
Record
65%
4064-2202 (6266)
machinelearnedInvested
$100.44
Value
$112.14
PnL
+$11.7
Record
55%
8670-7127 (15797)
Invested
$73
Value
$100
PnL
+$27
Record
51%
17112-16648 (33760)
Invested
$86.79
Value
—
PnL
-$86.79
Record
59%
6804-4763 (11567)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$77.94
Value
$78
PnL
+$0.06
Record
49%
77987-81500 (159487)
Invested
$75.1
Value
$77.25
PnL
+$2.15
Record
52%
90403-84904 (175307)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$66
Value
$60
PnL
-$6
Record
57%
12511-9627 (22138)
Both legs:
Invested
$77.3
Value
$67.24
PnL
-$10.06
Record
57%
7914-6084 (13998)
Invested
$81.12
Value
$60
PnL
-$21.12
Record
53%
27238-24207 (51445)
Invested
$54.28
Value
$62.44
PnL
+$8.16
Record
66%
125885-64811 (190696)
Invested
$59.58
Value
$117.96
PnL
+$58.38
Record
57%
10363-7780 (18143)
Invested
$52.84
Value
$62.76
PnL
+$9.92
Record
56%
13796-10960 (24756)
Invested
$44.44
Value
$44
PnL
-$0.44
Record
60%
12263-8116 (20379)
Invested
$37.33
Value
$39.51
PnL
+$2.42
Record
61%
94986-59906 (154892)
Invested
$25.34
Value
$28.57
PnL
+$6.68
Record
55%
7468-6132 (13600)
Invested
$46.6
Value
$60
PnL
+$13.4
Record
57%
12048-9048 (21096)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $34.1K
hoodquant
Down — $1.4K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $741.16
bibana100
CTRUp — $0
sfkjbsr457
Down — $363.18
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $363.26
uninformedfloww
Down — $375
ply-pm0
Down — $150
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $135.39
Atomforge
Down — $127.39