Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 92%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Signal

23 of 26 top traders (88%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,242

Combined PnL-$129.15

Up23 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,449

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Down — 12%Up — 88%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bibana100ARB<$100	Upavg 53.4¢	$776.71	$748.91	-$27.8	— 2-1 (3)
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.9¢	$376.71	—	-$376.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.4¢	$400	$748.91	+$348.91
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 62.2¢	$867.19	$1.1K	+$236.7	55% 15538-12969 (28507)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.2¢	$686.95	$1.1K	+$416.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.2¢	$180.24	—	-$180.24
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 75.4¢	$1.0K	$957.62	-$66.33	56% 14501-11415 (25916)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.4¢	$722.36	$957.62	+$235.26
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.8¢	$301.59	—	-$301.59
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 1.4¢	$18.95	—	-$18.95	59% 62273-43446 (105719)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$13.5	93% 23541-1774 (25315)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 13¢	$110.2	—	-$110.2	57% 70965-54043 (125008)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 76.1¢	$387.14	$408.33	+$21.19	54% 8051-6754 (14805)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.1¢	$310.73	$408.33	+$97.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.4¢	$76.41	—	-$76.41
machinelearned	Upavg 58.2¢	$377.61	$649.02	+$271.41	55% 8670-7127 (15797)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 49¢	$317.2	$647.96	+$330.76	58% 37890-27130 (65020)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 62.7¢	$327.69	$443.4	+$115.71	56% 13796-10960 (24756)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.7¢	$277.8	$443.4	+$165.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.5¢	$49.89	—	-$49.89
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 54.3¢	$279.73	$299.99	+$20.26	51% 17112-16648 (33760)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.3¢	$162.77	$299.99	+$137.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.6¢	$116.97	—	-$116.97
38 38791873984189	Upavg 48.4¢	$222.8	$460	+$237.2	46% 7970-9410 (17380)
PB PBot-6	Upavg 48.5¢	$194	$400	+$206	58% 51009-37160 (88169)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 74.6¢	$229.08	$213.36	-$15.71	53% 27238-24207 (51445)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.6¢	$159.1	$213.36	+$54.26
└ Down leg	Downavg 37¢	$69.98	—	-$69.98
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 74.2¢	$287.31	$376.96	+$89.65	55% 17859-14473 (32332)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 49.2¢	$152.6	$310	+$157.4	57% 10363-7780 (18143)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 49.3¢	$147.94	$300	+$152.06	48% 23305-25635 (48940)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 48.9¢	$125.94	$160.46	+$34.52	59% 6804-4763 (11567)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.9¢	$78.49	$160.46	+$81.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$47.45	—	-$47.45
LI Little-big	Upavg 50¢	$125	$250	+$125	34% 18828-35821 (54649)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 61¢	$122	$200	+$78	56% 58116-44865 (102981)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 79.2¢	$121.29	$136	+$14.71	57% 7914-6084 (13998)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79.2¢	$107.73	$136	+$28.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.2¢	$13.56	—	-$13.56
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 67.7¢	$85.07	$96.56	+$11.49	49% 5284-5393 (10677)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.7¢	$65.41	$96.56	+$31.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.6¢	$19.66	—	-$19.66
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 92.5¢	$128.54	$139	+$10.46	49% 77987-81500 (159487)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 68.2¢	$78.9	$102.63	+$23.73	57% 12511-9627 (22138)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$57.44	$65.5	+$8.06	59% 22313-15676 (37989)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$33.65	$65.5	+$31.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 40¢	$23.79	—	-$23.79

bibana100ARB<$100

Invested

$776.71

Value

$748.91

PnL

-$27.8

Record

—

2-1 (3)

Both legs:

Down$376.7127.9¢-$376.71

Up$40053.4¢+$348.91

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$867.19

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$236.7

Record

55%

15538-12969 (28507)

Both legs:

Up$686.9562.2¢+$416.94

Down$180.2434.2¢-$180.24

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,023.95

Value

$957.62

PnL

-$66.33

Record

56%

14501-11415 (25916)

Both legs:

Up$722.3675.4¢+$235.26

Down$301.5954.8¢-$301.59

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.95

Value

—

PnL

-$18.95

Record

59%

62273-43446 (105719)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,205.84

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$13.5

Record

93%

23541-1774 (25315)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$110.2

Value

—

PnL

-$110.2

Record

57%

70965-54043 (125008)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$387.14

Value

$408.33

PnL

+$21.19

Record

54%

8051-6754 (14805)

Both legs:

Up$310.7376.1¢+$97.6

Down$76.4129.4¢-$76.41

machinelearned

Invested

$377.61

Value

$649.02

PnL

+$271.41

Record

55%

8670-7127 (15797)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$317.2

Value

$647.96

PnL

+$330.76

Record

58%

37890-27130 (65020)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$327.69

Value

$443.4

PnL

+$115.71

Record

56%

13796-10960 (24756)

Both legs:

Up$277.862.7¢+$165.6

Down$49.8937.5¢-$49.89

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$279.73

Value

$299.99

PnL

+$20.26

Record

51%

17112-16648 (33760)

Both legs:

Up$162.7754.3¢+$137.23

Down$116.9752.6¢-$116.97

38791873984189

Invested

$222.8

Value

$460

PnL

+$237.2

Record

46%

7970-9410 (17380)

PBot-6

Invested

$194

Value

$400

PnL

+$206

Record

58%

51009-37160 (88169)

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$229.08

Value

$213.36

PnL

-$15.71

Record

53%

27238-24207 (51445)

Both legs:

Up$159.174.6¢+$54.26

Down$69.9837¢-$69.98

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$287.31

Value

$376.96

PnL

+$89.65

Record

55%

17859-14473 (32332)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$152.6

Value

$310

PnL

+$157.4

Record

57%

10363-7780 (18143)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$147.94

Value

$300

PnL

+$152.06

Record

48%

23305-25635 (48940)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$125.94

Value

$160.46

PnL

+$34.52

Record

59%

6804-4763 (11567)

Both legs:

Up$78.4948.9¢+$81.97

Down$47.4551¢-$47.45

Little-big

Invested

$125

Value

$250

PnL

+$125

Record

34%

18828-35821 (54649)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$122

Value

$200

PnL

+$78

Record

56%

58116-44865 (102981)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$121.29

Value

$136

PnL

+$14.71

Record

57%

7914-6084 (13998)

Both legs:

Up$107.7379.2¢+$28.27

Down$13.5624.2¢-$13.56

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$85.07

Value

$96.56

PnL

+$11.49

Record

49%

5284-5393 (10677)

Both legs:

Up$65.4167.7¢+$31.15

Down$19.6627.6¢-$19.66

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$128.54

Value

$139

PnL

+$10.46

Record

49%

77987-81500 (159487)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$78.9

Value

$102.63

PnL

+$23.73

Record

57%

12511-9627 (22138)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Invested

$57.44

Value

$65.5

PnL

+$8.06

Record

59%

22313-15676 (37989)

Both legs:

Up$33.6551.4¢+$31.85

Down$23.7940¢-$23.79

Smart Money Signal

23 of 26 top traders (88%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xae088251...00ddfb

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793377500

Traders in this Market

bibana100

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$27.8

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

0x50f7

Down — $0

hoodquant

Up — $1.2K

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Up — $649.02

+$271.41

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $647.96

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded