Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 74%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

-$833.58

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 32 top traders (75%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down24 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares6,477

Combined PnL+$687.54

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,901

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$37.82	93% 23498-1772 (25270)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 75.9¢	$890.56	$1.2K	+$282.31	57% 70922-54007 (124929)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 83.2¢	$784.23	$837.92	+$53.69	56% 14487-11403 (25890)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 85.2¢	$636.8	$627.56	-$9.25	54% 8039-6745 (14784)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 46¢	$732.6	—	-$732.6	58% 37856-27105 (64961)
pspspsps5	Downavg 98.2¢	$507.24	$516.66	+$9.42	46% 38121-45024 (83145)
BI bibana100CTR	Upavg 22.2¢	$300	—	-$300	— 1-1 (2)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 58.8¢	$317.72	$308.78	-$8.94	55% 15538-12969 (28507)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.8¢	$181.6	$308.78	+$127.18
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.8¢	$136.11	—	-$136.11
PB PBot-6CTR	Upavg 47.5¢	$190	—	-$190	58% 51007-37153 (88160)
SP spartacray	Downavg 87.8¢	$230.4	$205	-$25.4	53% 27227-24200 (51427)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 76.5¢	$188.9	$176	-$11.8	60% 12253-8106 (20359)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.5¢	$134.64	$176	+$41.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.7¢	$52.03	—	-$53.16
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 88.4¢	$171.4	$156.47	-$14.93	55% 17817-14432 (32249)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 42.6¢	$159.55	—	-$159.55	57% 12511-9627 (22138)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 34.1¢	$113.65	$60.43	-$53.22	55% 8656-7122 (15778)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.1¢	$78.75	—	-$78.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.7¢	$34.9	$60.43	+$25.53
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 67.2¢	$100.18	$116.67	+$16.49	55% 7460-6120 (13580)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$98	—	-$98	46% 7951-9381 (17332)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 87¢	$88	$100	+$12	51% 17106-16642 (33748)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 55.1¢	$79.85	$145	+$65.15	58% 60561-44221 (104782)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 69.7¢	$98.32	$72.75	-$25.57	56% 13796-10960 (24756)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.7¢	$50.73	$72.75	+$22.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.2¢	$47.59	—	-$47.59
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 85.8¢	$83.25	$97	+$13.75	49% 77987-81500 (159487)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 79.4¢	$79.42	$82.83	+$3.42	49% 5273-5385 (10658)
BoneOhio	Downavg 56¢	$84	$150	+$66	74% 102547-36416 (138963)
ohioism	Downavg 54¢	$81	$150	+$69	64% 40124-22950 (63074)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 52¢	$62.4	$120	+$57.6	57% 10352-7769 (18121)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 52¢	$44.42	$80.81	+$36.39	59% 6793-4756 (11549)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,674.18

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$37.82

Record

93%

23498-1772 (25270)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$890.56

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$282.31

Record

57%

70922-54007 (124929)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$784.23

Value

$837.92

PnL

+$53.69

Record

56%

14487-11403 (25890)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$636.8

Value

$627.56

PnL

-$9.25

Record

54%

8039-6745 (14784)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$732.6

Value

—

PnL

-$732.6

Record

58%

37856-27105 (64961)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$507.24

Value

$516.66

PnL

+$9.42

Record

46%

38121-45024 (83145)

bibana100CTR

Invested

$300

Value

—

PnL

-$300

Record

—

1-1 (2)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$317.72

Value

$308.78

PnL

-$8.94

Record

55%

15538-12969 (28507)

Both legs:

Down$181.658.8¢+$127.18

Up$136.1135.8¢-$136.11

PBot-6CTR

Invested

$190

Value

—

PnL

-$190

Record

58%

51007-37153 (88160)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$230.4

Value

$205

PnL

-$25.4

Record

53%

27227-24200 (51427)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$188.9

Value

$176

PnL

-$11.8

Record

60%

12253-8106 (20359)

Both legs:

Down$134.6476.5¢+$41.36

Up$52.0344.7¢-$53.16

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$171.4

Value

$156.47

PnL

-$14.93

Record

55%

17817-14432 (32249)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$159.55

Value

—

PnL

-$159.55

Record

57%

12511-9627 (22138)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$113.65

Value

$60.43

PnL

-$53.22

Record

55%

8656-7122 (15778)

Both legs:

Up$78.7534.1¢-$78.75

Down$34.957.7¢+$25.53

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$100.18

Value

$116.67

PnL

+$16.49

Record

55%

7460-6120 (13580)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$98

Value

—

PnL

-$98

Record

46%

7951-9381 (17332)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$88

Value

$100

PnL

+$12

Record

51%

17106-16642 (33748)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$79.85

Value

$145

PnL

+$65.15

Record

58%

60561-44221 (104782)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$98.32

Value

$72.75

PnL

-$25.57

Record

56%

13796-10960 (24756)

Both legs:

Down$50.7369.7¢+$22.02

Up$47.5937.2¢-$47.59

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$83.25

Value

$97

PnL

+$13.75

Record

49%

77987-81500 (159487)

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$79.42

Value

$82.83

PnL

+$3.42

Record

49%

5273-5385 (10658)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$84

Value

$150

PnL

+$66

Record

74%

102547-36416 (138963)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$81

Value

$150

PnL

+$69

Record

64%

40124-22950 (63074)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$62.4

Value

$120

PnL

+$57.6

Record

57%

10352-7769 (18121)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$44.42

Value

$80.81

PnL

+$36.39

Record

59%

6793-4756 (11549)

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 32 top traders (75%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x030623be...ec6aad

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793377200

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.7K

+$37.82

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.2K

+$282.31

CrouchPredictions

Down — $837.92

+$53.69

sfkjbsr457

Down — $627.56

-$9.25

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$732.6

pspspsps5

Down — $516.66

+$9.42

bibana100

CTR

Up — $0

-$300

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

PBot-6

Up — $0

spartacray

Down — $205

-$25.4

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