Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

-$103.79

Smart Money Signal

20 of 29 top traders (69%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,647

Combined PnL-$712.26

Up20 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,711

Combined PnL+$608.47

Down — 31%Up — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 63¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$235.36	55% 15538-12969 (28507)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63¢	$962.54	$1.5K	+$565.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 34¢	$330.29	—	-$330.29
BI bibana100ARB<$100	Downavg 32.4¢	$700	$616.85	-$83.15	— 1-1 (2)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.4¢	$400	—	-$400
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.6¢	$300	$616.85	+$316.85
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 87.4¢	$815.91	$606.23	-$209.67	56% 14487-11403 (25890)
└ Up leg	Upavg 87.4¢	$530	$606.23	+$76.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.5¢	$285.91	—	-$285.91
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 63.8¢	$576.31	$728.73	+$152.42	56% 13796-10960 (24756)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.8¢	$464.71	$728.73	+$264.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.2¢	$111.6	—	-$111.6
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 17.5¢	$588.08	—	-$588.08	57% 70922-54007 (124929)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$350.06	$381.82	+$31.76	57% 12511-9627 (22138)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.7¢	$224.28	$381.82	+$157.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.2¢	$125.78	—	-$125.78
NIULAI4	Upavg 80.6¢	$468.2	$581.05	+$112.85	77% 9410-2830 (12240)
SP spartacray	Upavg 62.5¢	$333.02	$468.11	+$135.09	53% 27227-24200 (51427)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 69.4¢	$345.72	$385.59	+$39.87	54% 8039-6745 (14784)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.4¢	$267.5	$385.59	+$118.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.8¢	$78.22	—	-$78.22
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 74.3¢	$202.63	$222.1	+$19.47	49% 5273-5385 (10658)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.3¢	$164.92	$222.1	+$57.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.2¢	$37.71	—	-$37.71
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 62¢	$185.95	$299.92	+$113.97	48% 23286-25627 (48913)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 66.6¢	$150.59	$144	-$6.59	57% 7900-6063 (13963)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.6¢	$95.86	$144	+$48.14
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.8¢	$54.73	—	-$54.73
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 71.3¢	$141.62	$172.54	+$30.93	60% 12253-8106 (20359)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.3¢	$123.02	$172.54	+$49.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.3¢	$18.6	—	-$18.6
BoneOhio	Upavg 83¢	$152.26	$150	-$2.26	74% 102547-36416 (138963)
ohioism	Upavg 84¢	$126	$150	+$24	64% 40124-22950 (63074)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 79.5¢	$94.89	$100	+$5.1	57% 12034-9042 (21076)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 84¢	$84	$100	+$16	56% 58095-44840 (102935)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 88¢	$88	$100	+$12	51% 17106-16642 (33748)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 55¢	$75.99	$132	+$56.01	55% 7460-6120 (13580)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 81.6¢	$74.7	$91.52	+$16.82	51% 20087-19234 (39321)
13 13897651	Upavg 48¢	$77.94	$119.88	+$41.94	59% 6793-4756 (11549)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 85¢	$63.75	$75	+$11.25	58% 60561-44221 (104782)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 67.7¢	$40.59	$59.99	+$19.4	64% 23273-12819 (36092)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$53.55	—	-$53.55	57% 10352-7769 (18121)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 36.8¢	$41.24	—	-$41.24	58% 37856-27105 (64961)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,292.83

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$235.36

Record

55%

15538-12969 (28507)

Both legs:

Up$962.5463¢+$565.65

Down$330.2934¢-$330.29

bibana100ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$700

Value

$616.85

PnL

-$83.15

Record

—

1-1 (2)

Both legs:

Down$40032.4¢-$400

Up$30048.6¢+$316.85

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$815.91

Value

$606.23

PnL

-$209.67

Record

56%

14487-11403 (25890)

Both legs:

Up$53087.4¢+$76.23

Down$285.9134.5¢-$285.91

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$576.31

Value

$728.73

PnL

+$152.42

Record

56%

13796-10960 (24756)

Both legs:

Up$464.7163.8¢+$264.02

Down$111.626.2¢-$111.6

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$588.08

Value

—

PnL

-$588.08

Record

57%

70922-54007 (124929)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$350.06

Value

$381.82

PnL

+$31.76

Record

57%

12511-9627 (22138)

Both legs:

Up$224.2858.7¢+$157.54

Down$125.7840.2¢-$125.78

NIULAI4

Invested

$468.2

Value

$581.05

PnL

+$112.85

Record

77%

9410-2830 (12240)

spartacray

Invested

$333.02

Value

$468.11

PnL

+$135.09

Record

53%

27227-24200 (51427)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$345.72

Value

$385.59

PnL

+$39.87

Record

54%

8039-6745 (14784)

Both legs:

Up$267.569.4¢+$118.09

Down$78.2238.8¢-$78.22

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$202.63

Value

$222.1

PnL

+$19.47

Record

49%

5273-5385 (10658)

Both legs:

Up$164.9274.3¢+$57.18

Down$37.7118.2¢-$37.71

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$185.95

Value

$299.92

PnL

+$113.97

Record

48%

23286-25627 (48913)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$150.59

Value

$144

PnL

-$6.59

Record

57%

7900-6063 (13963)

Both legs:

Up$95.8666.6¢+$48.14

Down$54.7332.8¢-$54.73

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$141.62

Value

$172.54

PnL

+$30.93

Record

60%

12253-8106 (20359)

Both legs:

Up$123.0271.3¢+$49.52

Down$18.618.3¢-$18.6

BoneOhio

Invested

$152.26

Value

$150

PnL

-$2.26

Record

74%

102547-36416 (138963)

ohioism

Invested

$126

Value

$150

PnL

+$24

Record

64%

40124-22950 (63074)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$94.89

Value

$100

PnL

+$5.1

Record

57%

12034-9042 (21076)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$84

Value

$100

PnL

+$16

Record

56%

58095-44840 (102935)

gansinimen

Invested

$88

Value

$100

PnL

+$12

Record

51%

17106-16642 (33748)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$75.99

Value

$132

PnL

+$56.01

Record

55%

7460-6120 (13580)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$74.7

Value

$91.52

PnL

+$16.82

Record

51%

20087-19234 (39321)

13897651

Invested

$77.94

Value

$119.88

PnL

+$41.94

Record

59%

6793-4756 (11549)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$63.75

Value

$75

PnL

+$11.25

Record

58%

60561-44221 (104782)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$40.59

Value

$59.99

PnL

+$19.4

Record

64%

23273-12819 (36092)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$53.55

Value

—

PnL

-$53.55

Record

57%

10352-7769 (18121)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$41.24

Value

—

PnL

-$41.24

Record

58%

37856-27105 (64961)

Smart Money Signal

20 of 29 top traders (69%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x05ceb2da...e8e206

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793376900

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

bibana100

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Up — $581.05

+$112.85

spartacray

Up — $468.11

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded