Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
35
Up 56%
3 arb excluded
$8.3K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
20 of 35 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | +$29.67 | 56% 29365-23030 (52395) |
WE well18CTR | Downavg 78.8¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | — |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 41.3¢ | $886.16 | $1.2K | +$312.87 | 55% 15538-12969 (28507) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97.6¢ | $852.05 | $873 | +$20.95 | 93% 23498-1772 (25270) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 54.2¢ | $712.43 | — | -$712.43 | 56% 14487-11403 (25890) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 58.5¢ | $468.92 | $496.1 | +$27.18 | 56% 13796-10960 (24756) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.7¢ | $221.67 | $496.1 | +$274.43 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.5¢ | $247.25 | — | -$247.25 | |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 50¢ | $245.72 | $370.06 | +$124.33 | 54% 8039-6745 (14784) |
SP spartacrayCTR | Downavg 44.5¢ | $295.03 | — | -$295.03 | 53% 27227-24200 (51427) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 30.8¢ | $126.7 | $323.46 | +$196.76 | 55% 8656-7122 (15778) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 43¢ | $174.06 | $265.86 | +$91.81 | 60% 12253-8106 (20359) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 57.6¢ | $322.65 | $225 | -$97.65 | 57% 12511-9627 (22138) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54¢ | $121.4 | $225 | +$103.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.6¢ | $201.25 | — | -$201.25 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 55.9¢ | $252.44 | $241.37 | -$11.07 | 49% 5273-5385 (10658) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Downavg 65.7¢ | $288.1 | — | -$288.1 | 55% 7460-6120 (13580) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 33.2¢ | $159.24 | — | -$159.24 | 57% 7900-6063 (13963) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 50¢ | $125 | $250 | +$125 | 34% 18818-35816 (54634) |
PB PBot-6 | Upavg 48.9¢ | $102.25 | $209.25 | +$106.99 | 58% 51007-37153 (88160) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 53.6¢ | $92.91 | $76.3 | -$16.61 | 59% 6793-4756 (11549) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.6¢ | $54.76 | — | -$54.76 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $38.15 | $76.3 | +$38.15 | |
RO Rock.San<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $88.03 | $88.12 | +$0.09 | 89% 11966-1414 (13380) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 80.4¢ | $75.2 | $73.16 | +$14.92 | 61% 94946-59871 (154817) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100 | Downavg 56.9¢ | $46.57 | — | -$46.57 | 57% 10352-7769 (18121) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 38.7¢ | $146.36 | $342.84 | +$196.48 | 58% 37856-27105 (64961) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 56.3¢ | $64.49 | $83.86 | +$19.37 | 57% 12034-9042 (21076) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $46.94 | $55.2 | +$8.26 | 64% 23273-12819 (36092) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 77.6¢ | $56.65 | — | -$56.65 | 55% 17817-14432 (32249) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 45.2¢ | $85.05 | — | -$85.05 | 57% 70922-54007 (124929) |
Invested
$2,937.27
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$29.67
Record
56%
29365-23030 (52395)
Invested
$1,400
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
—
Invested
$886.16
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$312.87
Record
55%
15538-12969 (28507)
Invested
$852.05
Value
$873
PnL
+$20.95
Record
93%
23498-1772 (25270)
Invested
$712.43
Value
—
PnL
-$712.43
Record
56%
14487-11403 (25890)
Invested
$468.92
Value
$496.1
PnL
+$27.18
Record
56%
13796-10960 (24756)
Both legs:
Invested
$245.72
Value
$370.06
PnL
+$124.33
Record
54%
8039-6745 (14784)
Invested
$295.03
Value
—
PnL
-$295.03
Record
53%
27227-24200 (51427)
machinelearnedInvested
$126.7
Value
$323.46
PnL
+$196.76
Record
55%
8656-7122 (15778)
Invested
$174.06
Value
$265.86
PnL
+$91.81
Record
60%
12253-8106 (20359)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$322.65
Value
$225
PnL
-$97.65
Record
57%
12511-9627 (22138)
Both legs:
Invested
$252.44
Value
$241.37
PnL
-$11.07
Record
49%
5273-5385 (10658)
Invested
$288.1
Value
—
PnL
-$288.1
Record
55%
7460-6120 (13580)
Invested
$159.24
Value
—
PnL
-$159.24
Record
57%
7900-6063 (13963)
Invested
$125
Value
$250
PnL
+$125
Record
34%
18818-35816 (54634)
Invested
$102.25
Value
$209.25
PnL
+$106.99
Record
58%
51007-37153 (88160)
Invested
$92.91
Value
$76.3
PnL
-$16.61
Record
59%
6793-4756 (11549)
Both legs:
Invested
$88.03
Value
$88.12
PnL
+$0.09
Record
89%
11966-1414 (13380)
Invested
$75.2
Value
$73.16
PnL
+$14.92
Record
61%
94946-59871 (154817)
Invested
$46.57
Value
—
PnL
-$46.57
Record
57%
10352-7769 (18121)
Invested
$146.36
Value
$342.84
PnL
+$196.48
Record
58%
37856-27105 (64961)
Invested
$64.49
Value
$83.86
PnL
+$19.37
Record
57%
12034-9042 (21076)
Invested
$46.94
Value
$55.2
PnL
+$8.26
Record
64%
23273-12819 (36092)
Invested
$56.65
Value
—
PnL
-$56.65
Record
55%
17817-14432 (32249)
Invested
$85.05
Value
—
PnL
-$85.05
Record
57%
70922-54007 (124929)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
THG.
Up — $3.0K
well18
CTRDown — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.2K
hoodquant
Up — $873
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
sfkjbsr457
Up — $370.06
spartacray
CTRDown — $0
machinelearned
Up — $323.46
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $265.86