Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 85%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$189.99

Smart Money Signal

22 of 27 top traders (81%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up22 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,676

Combined PnL+$319.4

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares229

Combined PnL-$129.41

Up — 81%Down — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 39.4¢	$1.8K	$1.0K	-$793.42	57% 70922-54007 (124929)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.2¢	$816.53	$1.0K	+$227.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.4¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 61.5¢	$900.59	$966.26	+$65.67	55% 15538-12969 (28507)
WE well18	Upavg 92¢	$900	$652.16	-$247.84	—
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$431.11	$489.39	+$58.28	56% 14487-11403 (25890)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.9¢	$337.01	$489.39	+$152.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 10.6¢	$94.1	—	-$94.1
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 63.8¢	$419.14	$483.6	+$64.46	56% 13796-10960 (24756)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$406.37	$410.47	+$4.1	93% 23498-1772 (25270)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 77.3¢	$303.18	$343	+$39.82	60% 12253-8106 (20359)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$271.67	$330.53	+$58.86	59% 6793-4756 (11549)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$164.96	$330.53	+$165.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$106.71	—	-$106.71
FairValueMachine	Upavg 62.6¢	$215.95	$275.13	+$59.18	57% 12511-9627 (22138)
PB PBot-6	Upavg 50¢	$200	$400	+$200	58% 51007-37153 (88160)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 82.4¢	$212.37	$163.81	-$48.56	55% 7460-6120 (13580)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 71.7¢	$171.31	$159.85	-$11.46	49% 5273-5385 (10658)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 65.3¢	$112.76	$147.81	+$35.05	57% 7900-6063 (13963)
NE never-stop-clickingCTR	Downavg 50¢	$120	—	-$120	31% 92-201 (293)
SP spartacray	Upavg 78.5¢	$118.56	$122.68	+$4.12	53% 27227-24200 (51427)
machinelearned	Upavg 81.2¢	$103.26	$127.21	+$23.95	55% 8656-7122 (15778)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 86.8¢	$78.1	$90	+$11.9	51% 20087-19234 (39321)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 63.6¢	$79.67	$100.89	+$21.22	57% 12034-9042 (21076)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.6¢	$64.17	$100.89	+$36.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.9¢	$15.5	—	-$15.5
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 74.5¢	$336.14	$63.99	+$14.38	54% 8039-6745 (14784)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 48.2¢	$53.06	$110.17	+$57.12	58% 37856-27105 (64961)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 59.3¢	$23.87	$31.83	+$7.96	66% 112191-58626 (170817)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 60¢	$24	$40	+$16	57% 10352-7769 (18121)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 71.3¢	$26.31	$36.91	+$10.6	64% 23273-12819 (36092)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 60.1¢	$14.15	$15.96	+$1.81	55% 17817-14432 (32249)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 63¢	$12.6	$20	+$7.4	55% 23901-19309 (43210)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,837.46

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$793.42

Record

57%

70922-54007 (124929)

Both legs:

Up$816.5378.2¢+$227.52

Down$1,020.9439.4¢$-1.0K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$900.59

Value

$966.26

PnL

+$65.67

Record

55%

15538-12969 (28507)

well18

Invested

$900

Value

$652.16

PnL

-$247.84

Record

—

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$431.11

Value

$489.39

PnL

+$58.28

Record

56%

14487-11403 (25890)

Both legs:

Up$337.0168.9¢+$152.38

Down$94.110.6¢-$94.1

GoodFallen

Invested

$419.14

Value

$483.6

PnL

+$64.46

Record

56%

13796-10960 (24756)

hoodquant

Invested

$406.37

Value

$410.47

PnL

+$4.1

Record

93%

23498-1772 (25270)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$303.18

Value

$343

PnL

+$39.82

Record

60%

12253-8106 (20359)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$271.67

Value

$330.53

PnL

+$58.86

Record

59%

6793-4756 (11549)

Both legs:

Up$164.9649.9¢+$165.57

Down$106.7151¢-$106.71

FairValueMachine

Invested

$215.95

Value

$275.13

PnL

+$59.18

Record

57%

12511-9627 (22138)

PBot-6

Invested

$200

Value

$400

PnL

+$200

Record

58%

51007-37153 (88160)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$212.37

Value

$163.81

PnL

-$48.56

Record

55%

7460-6120 (13580)

ply-pm0

Invested

$171.31

Value

$159.85

PnL

-$11.46

Record

49%

5273-5385 (10658)

wzbbb

Invested

$112.76

Value

$147.81

PnL

+$35.05

Record

57%

7900-6063 (13963)

never-stop-clickingCTR

Down

Invested

$120

Value

—

PnL

-$120

Record

31%

92-201 (293)

spartacray

Invested

$118.56

Value

$122.68

PnL

+$4.12

Record

53%

27227-24200 (51427)

machinelearned

Invested

$103.26

Value

$127.21

PnL

+$23.95

Record

55%

8656-7122 (15778)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$78.1

Value

$90

PnL

+$11.9

Record

51%

20087-19234 (39321)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$79.67

Value

$100.89

PnL

+$21.22

Record

57%

12034-9042 (21076)

Both legs:

Up$64.1763.6¢+$36.72

Down$15.541.9¢-$15.5

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$336.14

Value

$63.99

PnL

+$14.38

Record

54%

8039-6745 (14784)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$53.06

Value

$110.17

PnL

+$57.12

Record

58%

37856-27105 (64961)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$23.87

Value

$31.83

PnL

+$7.96

Record

66%

112191-58626 (170817)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$40

PnL

+$16

Record

57%

10352-7769 (18121)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$26.31

Value

$36.91

PnL

+$10.6

Record

64%

23273-12819 (36092)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$14.15

Value

$15.96

PnL

+$1.81

Record

55%

17817-14432 (32249)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$12.6

Value

$20

PnL

+$7.4

Record

55%

23901-19309 (43210)

Smart Money Signal

22 of 27 top traders (81%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xb99c4a6e...dd2425

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793376300

Traders in this Market

uninformedfloww

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$793.42

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $966.26

+$65.67

well18

Up — $652.16

-$247.84

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$58.28

GoodFallen

Up — $483.6

+$64.46

hoodquant

Up — $410.47

+$4.1

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $343

+$39.82

13897651

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$58.86

FairValueMachine

Up — $275.13

+$59.18

PBot-6

Up — $400

+$200

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