Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 87% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Down 89%
1 arb excluded
$10.6K
$541.48
Smart Money Signal
26 of 30 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $4.2K | $4.2K | +$4.21 | 59% 62257-43437 (105694) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.9¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$35.63 | 93% 23498-1772 (25270) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 96.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$35.39 | 55% 44953-37390 (82343) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 84.1¢ | $462.83 | $541.56 | +$78.73 | 56% 14487-11403 (25890) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 95.1¢ | $423 | $420 | -$3 | 53% 27227-24200 (51427) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 94.4¢ | $429.94 | $450 | +$20.06 | 55% 8656-7122 (15778) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Downavg 98¢ | $294 | $300 | +$6 | 48% 23286-25627 (48913) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 93.7¢ | $239.35 | $255.37 | +$16.02 | 46% 38121-45024 (83145) |
WE well18 | Downavg 51.8¢ | $200 | $386.27 | +$186.27 | — |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 59.6¢ | $175.24 | $214.41 | +$39.18 | 59% 6793-4756 (11549) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.6¢ | $127.82 | $214.41 | +$86.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.1¢ | $47.42 | — | -$47.42 | |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 93.6¢ | $141.77 | $151 | +$9.23 | 49% 77987-81500 (159487) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 89.1¢ | $119.07 | $133.58 | +$14.51 | 55% 17817-14432 (32249) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 79.3¢ | $100.59 | $103.36 | +$2.77 | 55% 15538-12969 (28507) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 90¢ | $91 | $100 | +$9 | 51% 17106-16642 (33748) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $81.39 | $88 | +$6.61 | 55% 7460-6120 (13580) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $49.8 | $60 | +$10.2 | 49% 5273-5385 (10658) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 53¢ | $63.97 | $120.7 | +$56.73 | 58% 37856-27105 (64961) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 91.4¢ | $40.31 | $42.44 | +$2.13 | 66% 125851-64777 (190628) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $40.74 | $44 | +$3.46 | 60% 12253-8106 (20359) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 96.7¢ | $30.94 | $32 | +$1.06 | 52% 90356-84870 (175226) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $28.05 | $31 | +$2.95 | 57% 7900-6063 (13963) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $25.5 | $30 | +$4.5 | 57% 12511-9627 (22138) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 90.8¢ | $28.36 | $12.22 | +$2.1 | 61% 94946-59871 (154817) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $17.6 | $20 | +$2.4 | 55% 23901-19309 (43210) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 83.5¢ | $16.7 | $19.99 | +$3.3 | 57% 12034-9042 (21076) |
Invested
$4,209.91
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$4.21
Record
59%
62257-43437 (105694)
Invested
$1,660.37
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$35.63
Record
93%
23498-1772 (25270)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$1,086.71
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$35.39
Record
55%
44953-37390 (82343)
Invested
$462.83
Value
$541.56
PnL
+$78.73
Record
56%
14487-11403 (25890)
Invested
$423
Value
$420
PnL
-$3
Record
53%
27227-24200 (51427)
machinelearnedInvested
$429.94
Value
$450
PnL
+$20.06
Record
55%
8656-7122 (15778)
Invested
$294
Value
$300
PnL
+$6
Record
48%
23286-25627 (48913)
pspspsps5Invested
$239.35
Value
$255.37
PnL
+$16.02
Record
46%
38121-45024 (83145)
Invested
$200
Value
$386.27
PnL
+$186.27
Record
—
Invested
$175.24
Value
$214.41
PnL
+$39.18
Record
59%
6793-4756 (11549)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$141.77
Value
$151
PnL
+$9.23
Record
49%
77987-81500 (159487)
Invested
$119.07
Value
$133.58
PnL
+$14.51
Record
55%
17817-14432 (32249)
Invested
$100.59
Value
$103.36
PnL
+$2.77
Record
55%
15538-12969 (28507)
Invested
$91
Value
$100
PnL
+$9
Record
51%
17106-16642 (33748)
Invested
$81.39
Value
$88
PnL
+$6.61
Record
55%
7460-6120 (13580)
Invested
$49.8
Value
$60
PnL
+$10.2
Record
49%
5273-5385 (10658)
Invested
$63.97
Value
$120.7
PnL
+$56.73
Record
58%
37856-27105 (64961)
Invested
$40.31
Value
$42.44
PnL
+$2.13
Record
66%
125851-64777 (190628)
Invested
$40.74
Value
$44
PnL
+$3.46
Record
60%
12253-8106 (20359)
Invested
$30.94
Value
$32
PnL
+$1.06
Record
52%
90356-84870 (175226)
Invested
$28.05
Value
$31
PnL
+$2.95
Record
57%
7900-6063 (13963)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$25.5
Value
$30
PnL
+$4.5
Record
57%
12511-9627 (22138)
Invested
$28.36
Value
$12.22
PnL
+$2.1
Record
61%
94946-59871 (154817)
Invested
$17.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$2.4
Record
55%
23901-19309 (43210)
Invested
$16.7
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$3.3
Record
57%
12034-9042 (21076)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $4.2K
hoodquant
Down — $1.7K
MayorMamdani
Down — $1.1K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $541.56
spartacray
Down — $420
machinelearned
Down — $450
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
Down — $300
pspspsps5
Down — $255.37
well18
Down — $386.27
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded