Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Down 89%
1 arb excluded
$8.3K
$361.15
Smart Money Signal
25 of 29 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.01 | 59% 62257-43437 (105694) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$22.64 | 93% 23498-1772 (25270) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 96.7¢ | $609.88 | $631 | +$21.12 | 55% 44953-37390 (82343) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 94.7¢ | $504.64 | $532.95 | +$28.31 | 46% 38121-45024 (83145) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Downavg 91.5¢ | $394.88 | $420.36 | +$25.48 | 54% 8039-6745 (14784) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 86.6¢ | $269.67 | $305.03 | +$35.36 | 55% 8656-7122 (15778) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 88¢ | $264.06 | $299.99 | +$35.94 | 53% 27227-24200 (51427) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 87.8¢ | $176.73 | $201.38 | +$24.65 | 49% 77987-81500 (159487) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 71.3¢ | $249.65 | $350.05 | +$100.41 | 56% 14487-11403 (25890) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 61.5¢ | $184.01 | $247.27 | +$63.26 | 59% 6793-4756 (11549) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.5¢ | $152.15 | $247.27 | +$95.12 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.5¢ | $31.86 | — | -$31.86 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 84.5¢ | $105.7 | $125.12 | +$19.42 | 55% 17817-14432 (32249) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 89.6¢ | $108.91 | $102.75 | -$6.16 | 49% 5273-5385 (10658) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 90¢ | $91 | $100 | +$9 | 51% 17106-16642 (33748) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $59.69 | $61 | +$1.31 | 57% 7900-6063 (13963) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 51.7¢ | $55.38 | $107.16 | +$51.77 | 57% 10352-7769 (18121) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $40.63 | $44 | +$3.37 | 55% 7460-6120 (13580) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $36.36 | $44 | +$7.64 | 60% 12253-8106 (20359) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 80.5¢ | $32.2 | $40 | +$7.8 | 55% 23901-19309 (43210) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 85.9¢ | $32.85 | $35.51 | +$3.06 | 61% 94946-59871 (154817) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 85.1¢ | $29.4 | $34.54 | +$5.15 | 52% 90356-84870 (175226) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 85.8¢ | $25.74 | $30 | +$4.26 | 64% 23273-12819 (36092) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $26.78 | — | -$26.78 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 88.9¢ | $19.8 | $22.27 | +$2.47 | 66% 125851-64777 (190628) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 48% 23286-25627 (48913) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $10.08 | $11.2 | +$1.12 | 64% 40124-22950 (63074) |
Invested
$3,005
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.01
Record
59%
62257-43437 (105694)
Invested
$1,522.36
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$22.64
Record
93%
23498-1772 (25270)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$609.88
Value
$631
PnL
+$21.12
Record
55%
44953-37390 (82343)
pspspsps5Invested
$504.64
Value
$532.95
PnL
+$28.31
Record
46%
38121-45024 (83145)
Invested
$394.88
Value
$420.36
PnL
+$25.48
Record
54%
8039-6745 (14784)
machinelearnedInvested
$269.67
Value
$305.03
PnL
+$35.36
Record
55%
8656-7122 (15778)
Invested
$264.06
Value
$299.99
PnL
+$35.94
Record
53%
27227-24200 (51427)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$176.73
Value
$201.38
PnL
+$24.65
Record
49%
77987-81500 (159487)
Invested
$249.65
Value
$350.05
PnL
+$100.41
Record
56%
14487-11403 (25890)
Invested
$184.01
Value
$247.27
PnL
+$63.26
Record
59%
6793-4756 (11549)
Both legs:
Invested
$105.7
Value
$125.12
PnL
+$19.42
Record
55%
17817-14432 (32249)
Invested
$108.91
Value
$102.75
PnL
-$6.16
Record
49%
5273-5385 (10658)
Invested
$91
Value
$100
PnL
+$9
Record
51%
17106-16642 (33748)
Invested
$59.69
Value
$61
PnL
+$1.31
Record
57%
7900-6063 (13963)
Invested
$55.38
Value
$107.16
PnL
+$51.77
Record
57%
10352-7769 (18121)
Invested
$40.63
Value
$44
PnL
+$3.37
Record
55%
7460-6120 (13580)
Invested
$36.36
Value
$44
PnL
+$7.64
Record
60%
12253-8106 (20359)
Invested
$32.2
Value
$40
PnL
+$7.8
Record
55%
23901-19309 (43210)
Invested
$32.85
Value
$35.51
PnL
+$3.06
Record
61%
94946-59871 (154817)
Invested
$29.4
Value
$34.54
PnL
+$5.15
Record
52%
90356-84870 (175226)
Invested
$25.74
Value
$30
PnL
+$4.26
Record
64%
23273-12819 (36092)
Invested
$26.78
Value
—
PnL
-$26.78
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$22.27
PnL
+$2.47
Record
66%
125851-64777 (190628)
Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
48%
23286-25627 (48913)
ohioism<$100Invested
$10.08
Value
$11.2
PnL
+$1.12
Record
64%
40124-22950 (63074)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
MayorMamdani
Down — $631
pspspsps5
Down — $532.95
sfkjbsr457
Down — $420.36
machinelearned
Down — $305.03
spartacray
Down — $299.99
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $201.38
CrouchPredictions
Down — $350.05
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded