Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
37
Down 78%
1 arb excluded
$11.4K
-$127.27
Smart Money Signal
29 of 37 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Downavg 98.8¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$22.87 | 74% 102547-36416 (138963) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 96.3¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$50.82 | 55% 44953-37390 (82343) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$28.9 | 93% 23498-1772 (25270) |
BO bosona | Downavg 86.9¢ | $833.55 | $892.63 | +$59.08 | 55% 49717-39929 (89646) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 80.6¢ | $788.59 | $777.47 | -$11.12 | 56% 14487-11403 (25890) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Downavg 92.1¢ | $721.06 | $729.21 | +$8.14 | 54% 8039-6745 (14784) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 87.3¢ | $370.82 | $363.36 | -$7.46 | 55% 8656-7122 (15778) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 95.3¢ | $382.11 | $377.1 | -$5.01 | 49% 5273-5385 (10658) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 84.1¢ | $275.3 | $300 | +$24.7 | 51% 17106-16642 (33748) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 92.1¢ | $268.21 | $291.18 | +$22.97 | 46% 38121-45024 (83145) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 83.2¢ | $238.4 | $286.54 | +$48.14 | 56% 58095-44840 (102935) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 92.4¢ | $280.19 | $273.33 | -$6.85 | 53% 27227-24200 (51427) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 46.7¢ | $268.45 | $121.52 | -$146.93 | 59% 6793-4756 (11549) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.7¢ | $198.8 | — | -$198.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.3¢ | $69.65 | $121.52 | +$51.87 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 52¢ | $160.23 | $276.75 | +$116.52 | 58% 37856-27105 (64961) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 78.1¢ | $169.25 | $199.36 | +$30.11 | 55% 7460-6120 (13580) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 71.8¢ | $143.76 | $200.28 | +$56.52 | 57% 10352-7769 (18121) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 8.4¢ | $358.8 | — | -$358.8 | 57% 70922-54007 (124929) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 90.5¢ | $151.45 | $165.28 | +$13.83 | 55% 17817-14432 (32249) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 85¢ | $150 | $150 | +$0 | 62% 43841-26852 (70693) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 88.3¢ | $125.5 | $138.36 | +$12.86 | 60% 12253-8106 (20359) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 88.8¢ | $116.49 | $131.11 | +$14.62 | 49% 77987-81500 (159487) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 84.5¢ | $123.18 | $122 | -$1.18 | 57% 7900-6063 (13963) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 90.1¢ | $81.35 | $82.86 | +$1.51 | 52% 90356-84870 (175226) |
WE well18CTR | Upavg 2.7¢ | $125 | — | -$125 | — |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 61.6¢ | $44.5 | $70 | +$25.5 | 57% 12034-9042 (21076) |
BoneOhioInvested
$1,902.74
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$22.87
Record
74%
102547-36416 (138963)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$1,889.38
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$50.82
Record
55%
44953-37390 (82343)
Invested
$1,416.1
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$28.9
Record
93%
23498-1772 (25270)
Invested
$833.55
Value
$892.63
PnL
+$59.08
Record
55%
49717-39929 (89646)
Invested
$788.59
Value
$777.47
PnL
-$11.12
Record
56%
14487-11403 (25890)
Invested
$721.06
Value
$729.21
PnL
+$8.14
Record
54%
8039-6745 (14784)
machinelearnedInvested
$370.82
Value
$363.36
PnL
-$7.46
Record
55%
8656-7122 (15778)
Invested
$382.11
Value
$377.1
PnL
-$5.01
Record
49%
5273-5385 (10658)
Invested
$275.3
Value
$300
PnL
+$24.7
Record
51%
17106-16642 (33748)
pspspsps5Invested
$268.21
Value
$291.18
PnL
+$22.97
Record
46%
38121-45024 (83145)
Invested
$238.4
Value
$286.54
PnL
+$48.14
Record
56%
58095-44840 (102935)
Invested
$280.19
Value
$273.33
PnL
-$6.85
Record
53%
27227-24200 (51427)
Invested
$268.45
Value
$121.52
PnL
-$146.93
Record
59%
6793-4756 (11549)
Both legs:
Invested
$160.23
Value
$276.75
PnL
+$116.52
Record
58%
37856-27105 (64961)
Invested
$169.25
Value
$199.36
PnL
+$30.11
Record
55%
7460-6120 (13580)
Invested
$143.76
Value
$200.28
PnL
+$56.52
Record
57%
10352-7769 (18121)
Invested
$358.8
Value
—
PnL
-$358.8
Record
57%
70922-54007 (124929)
Invested
$151.45
Value
$165.28
PnL
+$13.83
Record
55%
17817-14432 (32249)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$150
Value
$150
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
43841-26852 (70693)
Invested
$125.5
Value
$138.36
PnL
+$12.86
Record
60%
12253-8106 (20359)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$116.49
Value
$131.11
PnL
+$14.62
Record
49%
77987-81500 (159487)
Invested
$123.18
Value
$122
PnL
-$1.18
Record
57%
7900-6063 (13963)
Invested
$81.35
Value
$82.86
PnL
+$1.51
Record
52%
90356-84870 (175226)
Invested
$125
Value
—
PnL
-$125
Record
—
Invested
$44.5
Value
$70
PnL
+$25.5
Record
57%
12034-9042 (21076)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Down — $1.9K
MayorMamdani
Down — $1.8K
hoodquant
Down — $1.4K
bosona
Down — $892.63
CrouchPredictions
Down — $777.47
sfkjbsr457
Down — $729.21
machinelearned
Down — $363.36
ply-pm0
Down — $377.1
gansinimen
Down — $300
pspspsps5
Down — $291.18