Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 74%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

-$145.12

Smart Money Signal

29 of 39 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up29 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares10,934

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,847

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Up — 74%Down — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$32.83	56% 29365-23030 (52395)
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Downavg 34.9¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	37% 169-284 (453)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 72.1¢	$848.81	$1.1K	+$230.45	56% 14487-11403 (25890)
NIULAI4	Upavg 89.8¢	$927.93	$1.0K	+$105.65	77% 9410-2830 (12240)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 96.8¢	$870.38	$899.35	+$28.96	93% 23498-1772 (25270)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 61.5¢	$764.68	$913.43	+$148.75	57% 70922-54007 (124929)
BO bosona	Upavg 71.9¢	$411.85	$568.66	+$156.82	55% 49717-39929 (89646)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 71.1¢	$379.24	$446.04	+$66.8	54% 8039-6745 (14784)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$356.52	$360.12	+$3.6	74% 102547-36416 (138963)
SP spartacray	Upavg 69.1¢	$237.34	$305.55	+$68.21	53% 27227-24200 (51427)
13 13897651	Upavg 53.1¢	$151.5	$270.16	+$118.66	59% 6793-4756 (11549)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 84.6¢	$222.17	$232.24	+$10.07	55% 7460-6120 (13580)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 48¢	$251.27	$359.53	+$108.27	58% 37856-27105 (64961)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$78.7	—	-$78.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$172.57	$359.53	+$186.97
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 78.8¢	$182.87	$173.35	-$9.53	49% 5273-5385 (10658)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 74.1¢	$124.23	$150.47	+$26.24	60% 12253-8106 (20359)
ohioism	Upavg 96¢	$144	$150	+$6	64% 40124-22950 (63074)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 67.3¢	$127.71	$128.81	+$1.1	57% 7900-6063 (13963)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 85¢	$124.93	$122.66	-$2.27	57% 12034-9042 (21076)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 63.2¢	$113.71	$132.72	+$19.01	55% 17817-14432 (32249)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 64¢	$77.8	$100	+$22.2	51% 17106-16642 (33748)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 68.4¢	$96.3	$96.49	+$0.19	66% 125851-64777 (190628)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 61.3¢	$49.71	$81.06	+$31.35	55% 44953-37390 (82343)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 93.7¢	$91.72	$71.37	+$0.23	61% 94946-59871 (154817)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 84.6¢	$67.32	$64.67	-$2.65	55% 23901-19309 (43210)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 78.5¢	$47.11	$60	+$12.89	64% 23273-12819 (36092)

THG.

Invested

$3,250.17

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$32.83

Record

56%

29365-23030 (52395)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Down

Invested

$1,200

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

37%

169-284 (453)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$848.81

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$230.45

Record

56%

14487-11403 (25890)

NIULAI4

Invested

$927.93

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$105.65

Record

77%

9410-2830 (12240)

hoodquant

Invested

$870.38

Value

$899.35

PnL

+$28.96

Record

93%

23498-1772 (25270)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$764.68

Value

$913.43

PnL

+$148.75

Record

57%

70922-54007 (124929)

bosona

Invested

$411.85

Value

$568.66

PnL

+$156.82

Record

55%

49717-39929 (89646)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$379.24

Value

$446.04

PnL

+$66.8

Record

54%

8039-6745 (14784)

BoneOhio

Invested

$356.52

Value

$360.12

PnL

+$3.6

Record

74%

102547-36416 (138963)

spartacray

Invested

$237.34

Value

$305.55

PnL

+$68.21

Record

53%

27227-24200 (51427)

13897651

Invested

$151.5

Value

$270.16

PnL

+$118.66

Record

59%

6793-4756 (11549)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$222.17

Value

$232.24

PnL

+$10.07

Record

55%

7460-6120 (13580)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$251.27

Value

$359.53

PnL

+$108.27

Record

58%

37856-27105 (64961)

Both legs:

Down$78.752¢-$78.7

Up$172.5748¢+$186.97

ply-pm0

Invested

$182.87

Value

$173.35

PnL

-$9.53

Record

49%

5273-5385 (10658)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$124.23

Value

$150.47

PnL

+$26.24

Record

60%

12253-8106 (20359)

ohioism

Invested

$144

Value

$150

PnL

+$6

Record

64%

40124-22950 (63074)

wzbbb

Invested

$127.71

Value

$128.81

PnL

+$1.1

Record

57%

7900-6063 (13963)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$124.93

Value

$122.66

PnL

-$2.27

Record

57%

12034-9042 (21076)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$113.71

Value

$132.72

PnL

+$19.01

Record

55%

17817-14432 (32249)

gansinimen

Invested

$77.8

Value

$100

PnL

+$22.2

Record

51%

17106-16642 (33748)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$96.3

Value

$96.49

PnL

+$0.19

Record

66%

125851-64777 (190628)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$49.71

Value

$81.06

PnL

+$31.35

Record

55%

44953-37390 (82343)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$91.72

Value

$71.37

PnL

+$0.23

Record

61%

94946-59871 (154817)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$67.32

Value

$64.67

PnL

-$2.65

Record

55%

23901-19309 (43210)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$47.11

Value

$60

PnL

+$12.89

Record

64%

23273-12819 (36092)

Smart Money Signal

29 of 39 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe2c3b90b...3850d9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793373000

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $3.3K

+$32.83

Imgonnadoit

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.2K

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.1K

+$230.45

NIULAI4

Up — $1.0K

+$105.65

hoodquant

Up — $899.35

+$28.96

uninformedfloww

Up — $913.43

+$148.75

bosona

Up — $568.66

+$156.82

sfkjbsr457

Up — $446.04

+$66.8

BoneOhio

Up — $360.12

+$3.6

spartacray

Up — $305.55

+$68.21

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