Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Up 64%
3 arb excluded
$7.5K
$695.27
Smart Money Signal
16 of 26 top traders (62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$39.31 | 93% 23498-1772 (25270) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 71.5¢ | $2.1K | $2.9K | +$829.42 | 57% 70922-54007 (124929) |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Downavg 31.5¢ | $580.46 | — | -$580.46 | 37% 169-284 (453) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 74.7¢ | $381.45 | $396.01 | +$15.56 | 60% 12253-8106 (20359) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 94¢ | $359.14 | $382.23 | +$23.1 | 55% 44953-37390 (82343) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 65.9¢ | $324.48 | $445.37 | +$120.89 | 56% 14487-11403 (25890) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 77.2¢ | $196.31 | $254.17 | +$57.86 | 55% 8656-7122 (15778) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 69.2¢ | $126.33 | $169.33 | +$43 | 57% 7900-6063 (13963) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Upavg 68.3¢ | $188.26 | $227.27 | +$39.01 | 51% 17106-16642 (33748) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.3¢ | $155.27 | $227.27 | +$72 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33¢ | $32.99 | — | -$32.99 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 49¢ | $135.98 | $277.51 | +$141.53 | 58% 37856-27105 (64961) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 92.5¢ | $128.4 | $120 | -$8.4 | 53% 27227-24200 (51427) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Upavg 78.6¢ | $126.24 | $118.33 | -$7.91 | 55% 7460-6120 (13580) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 78.6¢ | $92.98 | $118.33 | +$25.35 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.6¢ | $33.26 | — | -$33.26 | |
AS asidjasiodja | Upavg 94¢ | $134.89 | $95.07 | +$4.27 | 61% 94946-59871 (154817) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 73.4¢ | $85.41 | $96.29 | +$10.88 | 49% 5273-5385 (10658) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 73.4¢ | $70.71 | $96.29 | +$25.58 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 18.8¢ | $14.7 | — | -$14.7 | |
TH thismonthCTR<$100 | Downavg 16.5¢ | $50 | — | -$50 | 34% 594-1147 (1741) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 84.2¢ | $61.64 | $67.48 | +$5.83 | 55% 17817-14432 (32249) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 70.2¢ | $56.2 | $80 | +$23.8 | 55% 23901-19309 (43210) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 65¢ | $69.19 | $100.29 | +$31.1 | 58% 60561-44221 (104782) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 87.4¢ | $41.66 | $47.68 | +$6.02 | 66% 125851-64777 (190628) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 68.4¢ | $49.68 | $72.58 | +$22.9 | 57% 12034-9042 (21076) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $10.4 | — | -$10.4 | 50% 7846-7866 (15712) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 1.3¢ | $6.09 | — | -$6.09 | 49% 77987-81500 (159487) |
WE well18CTR<$100 | Downavg 20¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | — |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100 | Downavg 19¢ | $3.84 | — | -$3.84 | 57% 10352-7769 (18121) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 2.3¢ | $5.04 | — | -$5.04 | 46% 38121-45024 (83145) |
Invested
$1,604.68
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$39.31
Record
93%
23498-1772 (25270)
Invested
$2,082.55
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$829.42
Record
57%
70922-54007 (124929)
Invested
$580.46
Value
—
PnL
-$580.46
Record
37%
169-284 (453)
Invested
$381.45
Value
$396.01
PnL
+$15.56
Record
60%
12253-8106 (20359)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$359.14
Value
$382.23
PnL
+$23.1
Record
55%
44953-37390 (82343)
Invested
$324.48
Value
$445.37
PnL
+$120.89
Record
56%
14487-11403 (25890)
machinelearnedInvested
$196.31
Value
$254.17
PnL
+$57.86
Record
55%
8656-7122 (15778)
Invested
$126.33
Value
$169.33
PnL
+$43
Record
57%
7900-6063 (13963)
Invested
$188.26
Value
$227.27
PnL
+$39.01
Record
51%
17106-16642 (33748)
Both legs:
Invested
$135.98
Value
$277.51
PnL
+$141.53
Record
58%
37856-27105 (64961)
Invested
$128.4
Value
$120
PnL
-$8.4
Record
53%
27227-24200 (51427)
Invested
$126.24
Value
$118.33
PnL
-$7.91
Record
55%
7460-6120 (13580)
Both legs:
Invested
$134.89
Value
$95.07
PnL
+$4.27
Record
61%
94946-59871 (154817)
Invested
$85.41
Value
$96.29
PnL
+$10.88
Record
49%
5273-5385 (10658)
Both legs:
Invested
$50
Value
—
PnL
-$50
Record
34%
594-1147 (1741)
Invested
$61.64
Value
$67.48
PnL
+$5.83
Record
55%
17817-14432 (32249)
Invested
$56.2
Value
$80
PnL
+$23.8
Record
55%
23901-19309 (43210)
Invested
$69.19
Value
$100.29
PnL
+$31.1
Record
58%
60561-44221 (104782)
Invested
$41.66
Value
$47.68
PnL
+$6.02
Record
66%
125851-64777 (190628)
Invested
$49.68
Value
$72.58
PnL
+$22.9
Record
57%
12034-9042 (21076)
Invested
$10.4
Value
—
PnL
-$10.4
Record
50%
7846-7866 (15712)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$6.09
Value
—
PnL
-$6.09
Record
49%
77987-81500 (159487)
Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$5
Record
—
Invested
$3.84
Value
—
PnL
-$3.84
Record
57%
10352-7769 (18121)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$5.04
Value
—
PnL
-$5.04
Record
46%
38121-45024 (83145)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $1.6K
uninformedfloww
Up — $2.9K
Imgonnadoit
CTRDown — $0
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $396.01
MayorMamdani
Up — $382.23
CrouchPredictions
Up — $445.37
machinelearned
Up — $254.17
wzbbb
Up — $169.33
gansinimen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $277.51