Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 65%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Signal

17 of 27 top traders (63%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,602

Combined PnL+$400.03

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,978

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 96.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$33.48	93% 23498-1772 (25270)
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Downavg 31.8¢	$600	—	-$600	37% 169-284 (453)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 41.8¢	$587.62	—	-$587.62	58% 37856-27105 (64961)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 66.8¢	$598.88	$718.58	+$119.7	56% 14487-11403 (25890)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 44.5¢	$463.52	$716.55	+$253.03	57% 70922-54007 (124929)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.5¢	$318.59	$716.55	+$397.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 39¢	$144.93	—	-$144.93
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 59.5¢	$319.74	$368.36	+$48.62	49% 5273-5385 (10658)
NIULAI4	Upavg 95.5¢	$400.7	$419.42	+$18.72	77% 9410-2830 (12240)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Downavg 41.3¢	$331.52	—	-$331.52	55% 7460-6120 (13580)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 64.3¢	$191.7	$255.51	+$63.81	60% 12253-8106 (20359)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 35.5¢	$239.69	$113.76	-$125.94	53% 27227-24200 (51427)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.2¢	$69.61	$113.76	+$44.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.5¢	$170.09	—	-$170.09
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 57.5¢	$156.08	$151.88	-$4.2	57% 7900-6063 (13963)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.5¢	$87.33	$151.88	+$64.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.9¢	$68.75	—	-$68.75
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 98.1¢	$165.56	$157.78	-$7.78	58% 60561-44221 (104782)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 39.3¢	$172.41	$126.75	-$45.66	55% 8656-7122 (15778)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.6¢	$84.41	$126.75	+$42.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.3¢	$88.01	—	-$88.01
AS asdaefef	Upavg 77.9¢	$113.17	$127.52	+$14.35	66% 125851-64777 (190628)
ohioismARB<$100	Upavg 78¢	$164.88	$172.06	+$7.18	64% 40124-22950 (63074)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78¢	$134.24	$172.06	+$37.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 62¢	$30.64	—	-$30.64
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 82.9¢	$102.61	$123.71	+$21.1	49% 77987-81500 (159487)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 42¢	$63.08	—	-$63.08	62% 43841-26852 (70693)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Upavg 62.1¢	$79.35	$86.21	+$6.86	55% 17817-14432 (32249)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.1¢	$53.5	$86.21	+$32.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.1¢	$25.85	—	-$25.85
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 56.1¢	$44.73	$53.86	+$9.13	52% 90356-84870 (175226)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 63.6¢	$34.4	$54.07	+$19.67	64% 23273-12819 (36092)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 67¢	$41.45	$40	-$1.45	55% 23901-19309 (43210)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.2¢	$14.65	—	-$14.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 67¢	$26.8	$40	+$13.2
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 38.8¢	$40.75	—	-$40.75	66% 112191-58626 (170817)
GA gansinimen<$100	Upavg 76¢	$55.32	$72.79	+$17.47	51% 17106-16642 (33748)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 83¢	$33.6	$40.48	+$6.88	57% 10352-7769 (18121)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$47.42	$68.82	+$21.4	57% 12034-9042 (21076)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,051.92

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$33.48

Record

93%

23498-1772 (25270)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Down

Invested

$600

Value

—

PnL

-$600

Record

37%

169-284 (453)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$587.62

Value

—

PnL

-$587.62

Record

58%

37856-27105 (64961)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$598.88

Value

$718.58

PnL

+$119.7

Record

56%

14487-11403 (25890)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$463.52

Value

$716.55

PnL

+$253.03

Record

57%

70922-54007 (124929)

Both legs:

Up$318.5944.5¢+$397.96

Down$144.9339¢-$144.93

ply-pm0

Invested

$319.74

Value

$368.36

PnL

+$48.62

Record

49%

5273-5385 (10658)

NIULAI4

Invested

$400.7

Value

$419.42

PnL

+$18.72

Record

77%

9410-2830 (12240)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Down

Invested

$331.52

Value

—

PnL

-$331.52

Record

55%

7460-6120 (13580)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$191.7

Value

$255.51

PnL

+$63.81

Record

60%

12253-8106 (20359)

spartacrayARB<$100

Down

Invested

$239.69

Value

$113.76

PnL

-$125.94

Record

53%

27227-24200 (51427)

Both legs:

Up$69.6161.2¢+$44.15

Down$170.0935.5¢-$170.09

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$156.08

Value

$151.88

PnL

-$4.2

Record

57%

7900-6063 (13963)

Both legs:

Up$87.3357.5¢+$64.55

Down$68.7544.9¢-$68.75

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$165.56

Value

$157.78

PnL

-$7.78

Record

58%

60561-44221 (104782)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$172.41

Value

$126.75

PnL

-$45.66

Record

55%

8656-7122 (15778)

Both legs:

Up$84.4166.6¢+$42.35

Down$88.0139.3¢-$88.01

asdaefef

Invested

$113.17

Value

$127.52

PnL

+$14.35

Record

66%

125851-64777 (190628)

ohioismARB<$100

Invested

$164.88

Value

$172.06

PnL

+$7.18

Record

64%

40124-22950 (63074)

Both legs:

Up$134.2478¢+$37.82

Down$30.6462¢-$30.64

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$102.61

Value

$123.71

PnL

+$21.1

Record

49%

77987-81500 (159487)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$63.08

Value

—

PnL

-$63.08

Record

62%

43841-26852 (70693)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Invested

$79.35

Value

$86.21

PnL

+$6.86

Record

55%

17817-14432 (32249)

Both legs:

Up$53.562.1¢+$32.71

Down$25.8551.1¢-$25.85

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$44.73

Value

$53.86

PnL

+$9.13

Record

52%

90356-84870 (175226)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$34.4

Value

$54.07

PnL

+$19.67

Record

64%

23273-12819 (36092)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$41.45

Value

$40

PnL

-$1.45

Record

55%

23901-19309 (43210)

Both legs:

Down$14.6529.2¢-$14.65

Up$26.867¢+$13.2

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.75

Value

—

PnL

-$40.75

Record

66%

112191-58626 (170817)

gansinimen<$100

Invested

$55.32

Value

$72.79

PnL

+$17.47

Record

51%

17106-16642 (33748)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$33.6

Value

$40.48

PnL

+$6.88

Record

57%

10352-7769 (18121)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$47.42

Value

$68.82

PnL

+$21.4

Record

57%

12034-9042 (21076)

Smart Money Signal

17 of 27 top traders (63%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa7e6f2d9...ab8b70

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793372100

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $1.1K

+$33.48

Imgonnadoit

CTR

Down — $0

-$600

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$587.62

CrouchPredictions

Up — $718.58

+$119.7

uninformedfloww

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$253.03

ply-pm0

Up — $368.36

+$48.62

NIULAI4

Up — $419.42

+$18.72

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

CTR

Down — $0

-$331.52

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $255.51

spartacray

Arbitrage — excluded