Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET

Resolved Up. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$168.27

Smart Money Signal

19 of 32 top traders (59%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares9,952

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Down13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,169

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Up — 59%Down — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 43.1¢	$2.8K	$4.9K	+$2.1K	57% 70901-53981 (124882)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$16.7	93% 23467-1770 (25237)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 48.9¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	56% 14444-11357 (25801)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 56¢	$835.61	$956.55	+$120.94	49% 5258-5381 (10639)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 64.5¢	$825.09	$675.97	-$149.12	58% 37847-27088 (64935)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 72¢	$1.0K	$957.43	-$48.42	77% 9405-2826 (12231)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.6¢	$316.53	—	-$316.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 72¢	$689.32	$957.43	+$268.11
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 25.5¢	$164.66	—	-$164.66	55% 8650-7109 (15759)
AN antsaslykuCTR	Downavg 23¢	$158.02	—	-$158.02	66% 112173-58591 (170764)
SP spartacrayCTR	Downavg 54.1¢	$331.18	—	-$331.18	53% 27215-24192 (51407)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Downavg 60.3¢	$333.15	—	-$333.15	55% 7453-6109 (13562)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 70.5¢	$409.6	$398.99	-$10.61	57% 7881-6054 (13935)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.2¢	$128.42	—	-$128.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.5¢	$281.18	$398.99	+$117.81
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 71.8¢	$322.5	$246.89	-$75.61	57% 12026-9030 (21056)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 49.9¢	$100.31	$119.95	+$19.64	66% 125811-64748 (190559)
GA gansinimenCTR	Downavg 60.2¢	$226.53	—	-$226.53	51% 17100-16638 (33738)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 40.3¢	$71.65	$95.93	+$24.28	52% 90329-84819 (175148)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 60.3¢	$345.97	$451.15	+$105.18	60% 12241-8099 (20340)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.6¢	$73.77	—	-$73.77
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.3¢	$272.2	$451.15	+$178.95
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 54.6¢	$213.77	$199.86	-$13.91	68% 99525-47913 (147438)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.5¢	$104.68	—	-$104.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.6¢	$109.09	$199.86	+$90.77
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 48.1¢	$122.78	$167.4	+$44.62	56% 58073-44827 (102900)
WE well18	Upavg 55.9¢	$400	$342.11	+$143.99	—
MayorMamdani	Upavg 92.9¢	$134.04	$144.23	+$10.19	55% 44917-37366 (82283)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 64.7¢	$89.01	$137.52	+$48.52	62% 43835-26840 (70675)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Downavg 17.6¢	$37.1	—	-$37.1	57% 10339-7761 (18100)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 43.7¢	$48.44	—	-$48.44	58% 60547-44207 (104754)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 60.3¢	$70.85	$110.27	+$39.42	55% 17781-14392 (32173)
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 76¢	$81.18	$150.18	+$69	64% 40110-22937 (63047)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76¢	$48.14	—	-$48.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 22¢	$33.04	$150.18	+$117.14

uninformedfloww

Invested

$2,785.35

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

57%

70901-53981 (124882)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,653.3

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$16.7

Record

93%

23467-1770 (25237)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,540.1

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

56%

14444-11357 (25801)

ply-pm0

Invested

$835.61

Value

$956.55

PnL

+$120.94

Record

49%

5258-5381 (10639)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$825.09

Value

$675.97

PnL

-$149.12

Record

58%

37847-27088 (64935)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$1,005.85

Value

$957.43

PnL

-$48.42

Record

77%

9405-2826 (12231)

Both legs:

Down$316.5374.6¢-$316.53

Up$689.3272¢+$268.11

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$164.66

Value

—

PnL

-$164.66

Record

55%

8650-7109 (15759)

antsaslykuCTR

Down

Invested

$158.02

Value

—

PnL

-$158.02

Record

66%

112173-58591 (170764)

spartacrayCTR

Down

Invested

$331.18

Value

—

PnL

-$331.18

Record

53%

27215-24192 (51407)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Down

Invested

$333.15

Value

—

PnL

-$333.15

Record

55%

7453-6109 (13562)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$409.6

Value

$398.99

PnL

-$10.61

Record

57%

7881-6054 (13935)

Both legs:

Down$128.4250.2¢-$128.42

Up$281.1870.5¢+$117.81

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$322.5

Value

$246.89

PnL

-$75.61

Record

57%

12026-9030 (21056)

asdaefef

Invested

$100.31

Value

$119.95

PnL

+$19.64

Record

66%

125811-64748 (190559)

gansinimenCTR

Down

Invested

$226.53

Value

—

PnL

-$226.53

Record

51%

17100-16638 (33738)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$71.65

Value

$95.93

PnL

+$24.28

Record

52%

90329-84819 (175148)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$345.97

Value

$451.15

PnL

+$105.18

Record

60%

12241-8099 (20340)

Both legs:

Down$73.7743.6¢-$73.77

Up$272.260.3¢+$178.95

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$213.77

Value

$199.86

PnL

-$13.91

Record

68%

99525-47913 (147438)

Both legs:

Down$104.6845.5¢-$104.68

Up$109.0954.6¢+$90.77

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$122.78

Value

$167.4

PnL

+$44.62

Record

56%

58073-44827 (102900)

well18

Invested

$400

Value

$342.11

PnL

+$143.99

Record

—

MayorMamdani

Invested

$134.04

Value

$144.23

PnL

+$10.19

Record

55%

44917-37366 (82283)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$89.01

Value

$137.52

PnL

+$48.52

Record

62%

43835-26840 (70675)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$37.1

Value

—

PnL

-$37.1

Record

57%

10339-7761 (18100)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$48.44

Value

—

PnL

-$48.44

Record

58%

60547-44207 (104754)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$70.85

Value

$110.27

PnL

+$39.42

Record

55%

17781-14392 (32173)

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$81.18

Value

$150.18

PnL

+$69

Record

64%

40110-22937 (63047)

Both legs:

Down$48.1476¢-$48.14

Up$33.0422¢+$117.14

Smart Money Signal

19 of 32 top traders (59%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd40b4c22...67f2b9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793371800

Traders in this Market

uninformedfloww

Up — $4.9K

+$2.1K

hoodquant

Up — $1.7K

+$16.7

CrouchPredictions

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.5K

ply-pm0

Up — $956.55

+$120.94

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $675.97

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Down — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $0

spartacray

Down — $0

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

CTR

Down — $0

-$333.15

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