Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET

Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 68%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Signal

16 of 23 top traders (70%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,352

Combined PnL+$210.67

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,964

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Up — 70%Down — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 28.1¢	$2.8K	$1.9K	-$971.43	57% 70901-53981 (124882)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.9¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$508.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.1¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 68.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$1.73	56% 14444-11357 (25801)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 42.1¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	58% 37847-27088 (64935)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 68.8¢	$475.01	$503.82	+$28.81	60% 12241-8099 (20340)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$543.29	$548.83	+$5.54	93% 23467-1770 (25237)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 62.6¢	$415.91	$424.73	+$8.81	68% 99525-47913 (147438)
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 48.5¢	$388.02	—	-$388.02	58% 51002-37148 (88150)
machinelearned	Upavg 78¢	$394.45	$473.45	+$79	55% 8650-7109 (15759)
SP spartacray	Upavg 73.3¢	$357.72	$363.15	+$5.43	53% 27215-24192 (51407)
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Downavg 31.3¢	$524.9	—	-$524.9	37% 169-284 (453)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 71.8¢	$313.15	$266.23	-$46.92	55% 7453-6109 (13562)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.8¢	$191.09	$266.23	+$75.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.8¢	$122.05	—	-$122.05
38 38791873984189CTR	Downavg 48.4¢	$222.8	—	-$222.8	46% 7940-9367 (17307)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 71¢	$207.27	$208.45	+$1.19	49% 5258-5381 (10639)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71¢	$148.05	$208.45	+$60.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 23¢	$59.22	—	-$59.22
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 71.1¢	$216.97	$192.35	-$24.62	57% 7881-6054 (13935)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.1¢	$136.74	$192.35	+$55.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.8¢	$80.23	—	-$80.23
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 65.7¢	$142.77	$149.98	+$7.21	57% 12026-9030 (21056)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.7¢	$98.59	$149.98	+$51.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.8¢	$44.18	—	-$44.18
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Downavg 37.6¢	$169.77	$50.31	-$119.46	55% 17781-14392 (32173)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.6¢	$132.57	—	-$132.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.9¢	$37.2	$50.31	+$13.11
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 58¢	$109.49	$100	-$9.49	51% 17100-16638 (33738)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58¢	$58	$100	+$42
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.3¢	$51.49	—	-$51.49
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 31.8¢	$119.84	$60.26	-$59.58	64% 40110-22937 (63047)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.8¢	$80.67	—	-$80.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 65¢	$39.17	$60.26	+$21.09
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 73.8¢	$92.79	$100	+$7.21	55% 23888-19304 (43192)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 80.1¢	$71.19	$77.87	+$6.68	66% 125811-64748 (190559)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 62.5¢	$65.6	$105	+$39.4	57% 10339-7761 (18100)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 77.4¢	$46.43	$59.98	+$13.54	55% 44917-37366 (82283)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 83¢	$74.94	$49.53	+$0.36	61% 94915-59834 (154749)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 74.2¢	$42.51	$42.84	+$13.13	64% 23206-12791 (35997)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 67.9¢	$35.52	$30.31	-$5.21	52% 90329-84819 (175148)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,845.15

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$971.43

Record

57%

70901-53981 (124882)

Both legs:

Up$1,365.1972.9¢+$508.54

Down$1,479.9728.1¢$-1.5K

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,544.62

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$1.73

Record

56%

14444-11357 (25801)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$1,250.14

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

58%

37847-27088 (64935)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$475.01

Value

$503.82

PnL

+$28.81

Record

60%

12241-8099 (20340)

hoodquant

Invested

$543.29

Value

$548.83

PnL

+$5.54

Record

93%

23467-1770 (25237)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$415.91

Value

$424.73

PnL

+$8.81

Record

68%

99525-47913 (147438)

PBot-6CTR

Down

Invested

$388.02

Value

—

PnL

-$388.02

Record

58%

51002-37148 (88150)

machinelearned

Invested

$394.45

Value

$473.45

PnL

+$79

Record

55%

8650-7109 (15759)

spartacray

Invested

$357.72

Value

$363.15

PnL

+$5.43

Record

53%

27215-24192 (51407)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Down

Invested

$524.9

Value

—

PnL

-$524.9

Record

37%

169-284 (453)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$313.15

Value

$266.23

PnL

-$46.92

Record

55%

7453-6109 (13562)

Both legs:

Up$191.0971.8¢+$75.13

Down$122.0528.8¢-$122.05

38791873984189CTR

Down

Invested

$222.8

Value

—

PnL

-$222.8

Record

46%

7940-9367 (17307)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$207.27

Value

$208.45

PnL

+$1.19

Record

49%

5258-5381 (10639)

Both legs:

Up$148.0571¢+$60.41

Down$59.2223¢-$59.22

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$216.97

Value

$192.35

PnL

-$24.62

Record

57%

7881-6054 (13935)

Both legs:

Up$136.7471.1¢+$55.61

Down$80.2328.8¢-$80.23

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$142.77

Value

$149.98

PnL

+$7.21

Record

57%

12026-9030 (21056)

Both legs:

Up$98.5965.7¢+$51.39

Down$44.1851.8¢-$44.18

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$169.77

Value

$50.31

PnL

-$119.46

Record

55%

17781-14392 (32173)

Both legs:

Down$132.5737.6¢-$132.57

Up$37.273.9¢+$13.11

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$109.49

Value

$100

PnL

-$9.49

Record

51%

17100-16638 (33738)

Both legs:

Up$5858¢+$42

Down$51.4940.3¢-$51.49

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$119.84

Value

$60.26

PnL

-$59.58

Record

64%

40110-22937 (63047)

Both legs:

Down$80.6731.8¢-$80.67

Up$39.1765¢+$21.09

sir-upalot

Invested

$92.79

Value

$100

PnL

+$7.21

Record

55%

23888-19304 (43192)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$71.19

Value

$77.87

PnL

+$6.68

Record

66%

125811-64748 (190559)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$65.6

Value

$105

PnL

+$39.4

Record

57%

10339-7761 (18100)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$46.43

Value

$59.98

PnL

+$13.54

Record

55%

44917-37366 (82283)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$74.94

Value

$49.53

PnL

+$0.36

Record

61%

94915-59834 (154749)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$42.51

Value

$42.84

PnL

+$13.13

Record

64%

23206-12791 (35997)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$35.52

Value

$30.31

PnL

-$5.21

Record

52%

90329-84819 (175148)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 23 top traders (70%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xdcfef640...5117dc

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793371500

Traders in this Market

uninformedfloww

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$971.43

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.5K

+$1.73

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.3K

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $503.82

+$28.81

hoodquant

Up — $548.83

+$5.54

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $424.73

+$8.81

PBot-6

CTR

Down — $0

-$388.02

machinelearned

Up — $473.45

+$79

spartacray

Up — $363.15

Imgonnadoit

Down — $0