Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 54%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.8K

Combined PnL

$585.9

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 30 top traders (50%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$19.4K

Total Shares19,367

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Up15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares22,156

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$8.9K	$9.0K	+$78.22	59% 62251-43417 (105668)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$32.79	56% 29364-23030 (52394)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 61.1¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$142.19	56% 14444-11357 (25801)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 24.5¢	$462.05	$1.8K	+$1.3K	58% 37847-27088 (64935)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 36¢	$518.4	$1.4K	+$857.51	57% 70901-53981 (124882)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.88	93% 23467-1770 (25237)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 57.8¢	$709.85	—	-$709.85	68% 99525-47913 (147438)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 51.8¢	$511.76	—	-$511.76	49% 5258-5381 (10639)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 74.7¢	$509.52	$572.2	+$62.68	54% 8028-6737 (14765)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.7¢	$340.54	—	-$340.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.5¢	$168.98	$572.2	+$403.22
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 21.4¢	$265.38	$326.15	+$60.77	55% 8650-7109 (15759)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.8¢	$113.61	$326.15	+$212.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.4¢	$151.77	—	-$151.77
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 48.7¢	$255.64	$311.84	+$56.2	55% 7453-6109 (13562)
SP spartacrayCTR	Upavg 54¢	$326.48	—	-$326.48	53% 27215-24192 (51407)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 55.8¢	$317.67	$293.16	-$24.51	60% 12241-8099 (20340)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 57.7¢	$168.07	$105.99	-$62.08	57% 7881-6054 (13935)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.7¢	$124.72	—	-$124.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.9¢	$43.35	$105.99	+$62.64
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 70¢	$143.8	$185.6	+$41.8	57% 12026-9030 (21056)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70¢	$83.99	—	-$83.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.2¢	$59.81	$185.6	+$125.79
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 58.9¢	$101.33	$133.69	+$32.36	57% 10339-7761 (18100)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 73¢	$183.85	$150.18	-$33.67	56% 58073-44827 (102900)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73¢	$109.63	$150.18	+$40.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 74¢	$74.21	—	-$74.21
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR	Upavg 78.2¢	$135.45	—	-$135.45	55% 17781-14392 (32173)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 76.5¢	$126.51	$100	-$26.51	51% 17100-16638 (33738)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.5¢	$81.51	—	-$81.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 45¢	$45	$100	+$55
NIULAI4<$100	Downavg 93¢	$70.34	$67.98	-$2.36	77% 9405-2826 (12231)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 66.9¢	$63.14	$55.02	+$5.3	64% 23206-12791 (35997)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 55.3¢	$50.74	—	-$50.74	66% 112173-58591 (170764)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 82¢	$30.13	$32.3	+$2.17	64% 40110-22937 (63047)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 38.5¢	$26.57	—	-$26.57	66% 125811-64748 (190559)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 63¢	$42.4	—	-$42.4	55% 23888-19304 (43192)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$8,929.79

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$78.22

Record

59%

62251-43417 (105668)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,246.21

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$32.79

Record

56%

29364-23030 (52394)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,742.39

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$142.19

Record

56%

14444-11357 (25801)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$462.05

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

58%

37847-27088 (64935)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$518.4

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$857.51

Record

57%

70901-53981 (124882)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,077.12

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.88

Record

93%

23467-1770 (25237)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$709.85

Value

—

PnL

-$709.85

Record

68%

99525-47913 (147438)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$511.76

Value

—

PnL

-$511.76

Record

49%

5258-5381 (10639)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$509.52

Value

$572.2

PnL

+$62.68

Record

54%

8028-6737 (14765)

Both legs:

Up$340.5474.7¢-$340.54

Down$168.9829.5¢+$403.22

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$265.38

Value

$326.15

PnL

+$60.77

Record

55%

8650-7109 (15759)

Both legs:

Down$113.6134.8¢+$212.54

Up$151.7721.4¢-$151.77

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$255.64

Value

$311.84

PnL

+$56.2

Record

55%

7453-6109 (13562)

spartacrayCTR

Invested

$326.48

Value

—

PnL

-$326.48

Record

53%

27215-24192 (51407)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$317.67

Value

$293.16

PnL

-$24.51

Record

60%

12241-8099 (20340)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$168.07

Value

$105.99

PnL

-$62.08

Record

57%

7881-6054 (13935)

Both legs:

Up$124.7257.7¢-$124.72

Down$43.3540.9¢+$62.64

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$143.8

Value

$185.6

PnL

+$41.8

Record

57%

12026-9030 (21056)

Both legs:

Up$83.9970¢-$83.99

Down$59.8132.2¢+$125.79

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$101.33

Value

$133.69

PnL

+$32.36

Record

57%

10339-7761 (18100)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$183.85

Value

$150.18

PnL

-$33.67

Record

56%

58073-44827 (102900)

Both legs:

Down$109.6373¢+$40.55

Up$74.2174¢-$74.21

Kathod-Shi-14CTR

Invested

$135.45

Value

—

PnL

-$135.45

Record

55%

17781-14392 (32173)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$126.51

Value

$100

PnL

-$26.51

Record

51%

17100-16638 (33738)

Both legs:

Invested

$70.34

Value

$67.98

PnL

-$2.36

Record

77%

9405-2826 (12231)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$63.14

Value

$55.02

PnL

+$5.3

Record

64%

23206-12791 (35997)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$50.74

Value

—

PnL

-$50.74

Record

66%

112173-58591 (170764)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$30.13

Value

$32.3

PnL

+$2.17

Record

64%

40110-22937 (63047)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$26.57

Value

—

PnL

-$26.57

Record

66%

125811-64748 (190559)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$42.4

Value

—

PnL

-$42.4

Record

55%

23888-19304 (43192)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 30 top traders (50%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xcb599d19...3f2e3a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793371200

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $9.0K

+$78.22

THG.

Down — $3.3K

+$32.79

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.9K

+$142.19

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $1.8K

+$1.3K

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.4K

+$857.51

hoodquant

Down — $1.1K

+$10.88

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

ply-pm0

Up — $0

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded