Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$235.83

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 27 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares6,405

Combined PnL+$161.88

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,893

Combined PnL+$73.95

Down — 81%Up — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$24.45	56% 29364-23030 (52394)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 73.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$43.39	56% 14444-11357 (25801)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 95.2¢	$590.5	$619.99	+$29.49	55% 44917-37366 (82283)
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Upavg 10.2¢	$504.26	—	+$249.16	37% 169-284 (453)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 69.8¢	$359.22	$345.87	-$13.36	68% 99525-47913 (147438)
SP spartacray	Downavg 85.2¢	$352.48	$359.99	+$7.52	53% 27215-24192 (51407)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 88.7¢	$365.44	$233.96	-$131.48	55% 8650-7109 (15759)
└ Down leg	Downavg 88.7¢	$207.44	$233.96	+$26.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.8¢	$158	—	-$158
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 69.7¢	$182.88	$182.93	+$0.05	49% 5258-5381 (10639)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 84.7¢	$190.65	$148.6	-$42.05	60% 12241-8099 (20340)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 85.6¢	$160.23	$181	+$20.77	55% 7453-6109 (13562)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 98¢	$150.2	$153	+$2.8	49% 77987-81500 (159487)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 80¢	$162.44	$203.05	+$40.61	57% 70901-53981 (124882)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 34¢	$53.69	$150.08	+$96.39	56% 58073-44827 (102900)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 33.6¢	$71.23	—	-$71.23	58% 37847-27088 (64935)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 91.8¢	$94.3	$90.04	-$4.26	52% 90329-84819 (175148)
ohioism	Downavg 74¢	$111.06	$150.08	+$39.02	64% 40110-22937 (63047)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 81.7¢	$101.98	$63.91	-$38.07	57% 12026-9030 (21056)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.7¢	$52.19	$63.91	+$11.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.3¢	$49.79	—	-$49.79
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 92¢	$56.38	$54	-$2.38	66% 125811-64748 (190559)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 93.4¢	$71.72	$48	-$2.04	61% 94915-59834 (154749)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 98¢	$48.13	$49.11	+$0.98	46% 38121-45024 (83145)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 39.6¢	$52.23	—	-$52.23	55% 17781-14392 (32173)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 59.2¢	$38.63	$48.77	+$10.14	66% 112173-58591 (170764)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 35.4¢	$27.75	—	-$27.75	57% 10339-7761 (18100)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 74¢	$18.4	$20	+$1.6	55% 23888-19304 (43192)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$24	—	-$24	57% 12656-9358 (22014)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,420.77

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$24.45

Record

56%

29364-23030 (52394)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,169.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$43.39

Record

56%

14444-11357 (25801)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$590.5

Value

$619.99

PnL

+$29.49

Record

55%

44917-37366 (82283)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Invested

$504.26

Value

—

PnL

+$249.16

Record

37%

169-284 (453)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$359.22

Value

$345.87

PnL

-$13.36

Record

68%

99525-47913 (147438)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$352.48

Value

$359.99

PnL

+$7.52

Record

53%

27215-24192 (51407)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$365.44

Value

$233.96

PnL

-$131.48

Record

55%

8650-7109 (15759)

Both legs:

Down$207.4488.7¢+$26.52

Up$15819.8¢-$158

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$182.88

Value

$182.93

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

5258-5381 (10639)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$190.65

Value

$148.6

PnL

-$42.05

Record

60%

12241-8099 (20340)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$160.23

Value

$181

PnL

+$20.77

Record

55%

7453-6109 (13562)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$150.2

Value

$153

PnL

+$2.8

Record

49%

77987-81500 (159487)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$162.44

Value

$203.05

PnL

+$40.61

Record

57%

70901-53981 (124882)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$53.69

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$96.39

Record

56%

58073-44827 (102900)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$71.23

Value

—

PnL

-$71.23

Record

58%

37847-27088 (64935)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$94.3

Value

$90.04

PnL

-$4.26

Record

52%

90329-84819 (175148)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$111.06

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$39.02

Record

64%

40110-22937 (63047)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$101.98

Value

$63.91

PnL

-$38.07

Record

57%

12026-9030 (21056)

Both legs:

Down$52.1981.7¢+$11.72

Up$49.7962.3¢-$49.79

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$56.38

Value

$54

PnL

-$2.38

Record

66%

125811-64748 (190559)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$71.72

Value

$48

PnL

-$2.04

Record

61%

94915-59834 (154749)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$48.13

Value

$49.11

PnL

+$0.98

Record

46%

38121-45024 (83145)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$52.23

Value

—

PnL

-$52.23

Record

55%

17781-14392 (32173)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$38.63

Value

$48.77

PnL

+$10.14

Record

66%

112173-58591 (170764)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$27.75

Value

—

PnL

-$27.75

Record

57%

10339-7761 (18100)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$18.4

Value

$20

PnL

+$1.6

Record

55%

23888-19304 (43192)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$24

Value

—

PnL

-$24

Record

57%

12656-9358 (22014)

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 27 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xf49f9e69...644145

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793370600

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $2.4K

+$24.45

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.1K

-$43.39

MayorMamdani

Down — $619.99

+$29.49

Imgonnadoit

CTR

Up — $0

+$249.16

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $345.87

-$13.36

spartacray

Down — $359.99

+$7.52

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$131.48

ply-pm0

Down — $182.93

+$0.05

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $148.6

-$42.05

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $181

+$20.77

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