Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 70%

14 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$342.87

Smart Money Signal

15 of 21 top traders (71%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,511

Combined PnL+$883.79

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,468

Combined PnL-$540.92

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 30¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$333.53	57% 70901-53981 (124882)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.1¢	$637.19	$1.4K	+$775.16
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 79¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$238.7	56% 14444-11357 (25801)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$294.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.5¢	$533.66	—	-$533.66
NIULAI4	Upavg 69¢	$891.2	$1.3K	+$399.67	77% 9405-2826 (12231)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 57.9¢	$450.32	$616.23	+$165.91	55% 7453-6109 (13562)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 52.1¢	$376.95	$368.39	-$8.56	49% 5258-5381 (10639)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.1¢	$191.97	$368.39	+$176.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.1¢	$184.98	—	-$184.98
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 38¢	$292.03	$399.98	+$107.95	51% 17100-16638 (33738)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38¢	$152.19	$399.98	+$247.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.9¢	$139.84	—	-$139.84
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Downavg 11.6¢	$325	—	+$77.09	37% 169-284 (453)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 48.4¢	$430.34	$251.29	-$179.05	60% 12241-8099 (20340)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.3¢	$179.27	$251.29	+$72.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.4¢	$251.07	—	-$251.07
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 47.8¢	$341.59	$368.7	+$27.11	57% 7881-6054 (13935)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.8¢	$176.08	$368.7	+$192.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.6¢	$165.51	—	-$165.51
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 57.9¢	$345.43	—	-$345.43	68% 99525-47913 (147438)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 56.4¢	$356.47	$354.63	-$1.84	53% 27215-24192 (51407)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.4¢	$200.01	$354.63	+$154.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.9¢	$156.45	—	-$156.45
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 58.7¢	$269.4	$411.68	+$142.28	56% 58073-44827 (102900)
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Upavg 74.1¢	$203.49	$228.31	+$24.82	52% 90329-84819 (175148)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.1¢	$169.14	$228.31	+$59.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.4¢	$34.35	—	-$34.35
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR<$100	Downavg 11.2¢	$75.76	—	-$75.76	51% 875-849 (1724)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 63.8¢	$221.62	$207.44	-$14.18	66% 112173-58591 (170764)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.8¢	$132.34	$207.44	+$75.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.3¢	$89.28	—	-$89.28
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 51.1¢	$178.37	$172.45	-$5.92	55% 8650-7109 (15759)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.3¢	$74.66	$172.45	+$97.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.1¢	$103.7	—	-$103.7
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 66.6¢	$194.15	$238.22	+$44.07	55% 17781-14392 (32173)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 78.3¢	$185.59	$191.32	+$5.73	57% 10339-7761 (18100)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.3¢	$149.79	$191.32	+$41.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.1¢	$35.8	—	-$35.8
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 72.2¢	$217.2	$191.62	-$25.58	57% 12026-9030 (21056)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.2¢	$138.38	$191.62	+$53.24
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.7¢	$78.82	—	-$78.82
BoneOhio	Upavg 79.4¢	$198.44	$249.98	+$51.54	74% 102458-36400 (138858)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 86¢	$182.15	$176.55	-$5.6	66% 125811-64748 (190559)
└ Up leg	Upavg 86¢	$151.78	$176.55	+$24.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.9¢	$30.37	—	-$30.37
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Upavg 85¢	$212.9	$150.18	-$62.72	62% 43835-26840 (70675)
└ Up leg	Upavg 85¢	$127.65	$150.18	+$22.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 85¢	$85.25	—	-$85.25
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 59.7¢	$122.79	$132.14	+$9.35	55% 23888-19304 (43192)
ohioism	Upavg 85¢	$140.34	$150.18	+$9.84	64% 40110-22937 (63047)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 82.5¢	$126.55	$153.45	+$26.9	58% 60547-44207 (104754)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,745.87

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$333.53

Record

57%

70901-53981 (124882)

Both legs:

Down$1,108.6830¢$-1.1K

Up$637.1945.1¢+$775.16

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,645.94

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$238.7

Record

56%

14444-11357 (25801)

Both legs:

Up$1,112.2879¢+$294.96

Down$533.6651.5¢-$533.66

NIULAI4

Invested

$891.2

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$399.67

Record

77%

9405-2826 (12231)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$450.32

Value

$616.23

PnL

+$165.91

Record

55%

7453-6109 (13562)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$376.95

Value

$368.39

PnL

-$8.56

Record

49%

5258-5381 (10639)

Both legs:

Up$191.9752.1¢+$176.42

Down$184.9838.1¢-$184.98

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$292.03

Value

$399.98

PnL

+$107.95

Record

51%

17100-16638 (33738)

Both legs:

Up$152.1938¢+$247.79

Down$139.8444.9¢-$139.84

ImgonnadoitCTR

Down

Invested

$325

Value

—

PnL

+$77.09

Record

37%

169-284 (453)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$430.34

Value

$251.29

PnL

-$179.05

Record

60%

12241-8099 (20340)

Both legs:

Up$179.2771.3¢+$72.02

Down$251.0748.4¢-$251.07

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$341.59

Value

$368.7

PnL

+$27.11

Record

57%

7881-6054 (13935)

Both legs:

Up$176.0847.8¢+$192.62

Down$165.5163.6¢-$165.51

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$345.43

Value

—

PnL

-$345.43

Record

68%

99525-47913 (147438)

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$356.47

Value

$354.63

PnL

-$1.84

Record

53%

27215-24192 (51407)

Both legs:

Up$200.0156.4¢+$154.62

Down$156.4556.9¢-$156.45

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$269.4

Value

$411.68

PnL

+$142.28

Record

56%

58073-44827 (102900)

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Invested

$203.49

Value

$228.31

PnL

+$24.82

Record

52%

90329-84819 (175148)

Both legs:

Up$169.1474.1¢+$59.17

Down$34.3516.4¢-$34.35

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$75.76

Value

—

PnL

-$75.76

Record

51%

875-849 (1724)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$221.62

Value

$207.44

PnL

-$14.18

Record

66%

112173-58591 (170764)

Both legs:

Up$132.3463.8¢+$75.1

Down$89.2852.3¢-$89.28

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$178.37

Value

$172.45

PnL

-$5.92

Record

55%

8650-7109 (15759)

Both legs:

Up$74.6643.3¢+$97.79

Down$103.751.1¢-$103.7

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$194.15

Value

$238.22

PnL

+$44.07

Record

55%

17781-14392 (32173)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$185.59

Value

$191.32

PnL

+$5.73

Record

57%

10339-7761 (18100)

Both legs:

Up$149.7978.3¢+$41.53

Down$35.826.1¢-$35.8

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$217.2

Value

$191.62

PnL

-$25.58

Record

57%

12026-9030 (21056)

Both legs:

Up$138.3872.2¢+$53.24

Down$78.8262.7¢-$78.82

BoneOhio

Invested

$198.44

Value

$249.98

PnL

+$51.54

Record

74%

102458-36400 (138858)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$182.15

Value

$176.55

PnL

-$5.6

Record

66%

125811-64748 (190559)

Both legs:

Up$151.7886¢+$24.77

Down$30.3721.9¢-$30.37

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Invested

$212.9

Value

$150.18

PnL

-$62.72

Record

62%

43835-26840 (70675)

Both legs:

Up$127.6585¢+$22.53

Down$85.2585¢-$85.25

sir-upalot

Invested

$122.79

Value

$132.14

PnL

+$9.35

Record

55%

23888-19304 (43192)

ohioism

Invested

$140.34

Value

$150.18

PnL

+$9.84

Record

64%

40110-22937 (63047)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$126.55

Value

$153.45

PnL

+$26.9

Record

58%

60547-44207 (104754)

Smart Money Signal

15 of 21 top traders (71%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0b69bbee...ac9d6b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793370300

Traders in this Market

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Up — $1.3K

+$399.67

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $616.23

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

Imgonnadoit

Down — $0

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Down — $0

-$345.43

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