Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
32
Up 60%
1 arb excluded
$5.5K
$-2.6K
Smart Money Signal
19 of 32 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 62.4¢ | $1.9K | — | $-1.9K | 56% 14444-11357 (25801) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 34¢ | $1.5K | $3.6K | +$2.1K | 57% 70901-53981 (124882) |
 NIULAI4CTR | Upavg 34.1¢ | $242.67 | — | -$242.67 | 77% 9405-2826 (12231) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 53.4¢ | $649.13 | — | -$649.13 | 49% 5258-5381 (10639) |
AN antsaslykuCTR | Upavg 31.2¢ | $171.55 | — | -$171.55 | 66% 112173-58591 (170764) |
SF sfkjbsr457CTR | Upavg 64.5¢ | $465.47 | — | -$465.47 | 54% 8028-6737 (14765) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 51¢ | $490.17 | $574.02 | +$83.85 | 60% 12241-8099 (20340) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Upavg 72.1¢ | $388.66 | — | -$388.66 | 55% 7453-6109 (13562) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 58.4¢ | $302.78 | — | -$302.78 | 68% 99525-47913 (147438) |
GA gansinimenCTR | Upavg 63¢ | $258.6 | — | -$258.6 | 51% 17100-16638 (33738) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR | Upavg 69¢ | $330.45 | — | -$330.45 | 55% 17781-14392 (32173) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR | Upavg 92.6¢ | $201.92 | — | -$201.92 | 55% 44917-37366 (82283) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Upavg 60.6¢ | $179.79 | — | -$179.79 | 57% 12026-9030 (21056) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 54.9¢ | $348.76 | $388.41 | +$39.66 | 57% 7881-6054 (13935) |
SP spartacrayCTR | Upavg 71.5¢ | $164.63 | — | -$164.63 | 53% 27215-24192 (51407) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR | Upavg 50.2¢ | $118.02 | — | -$118.02 | 52% 90329-84819 (175148) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 70.5¢ | $103.79 | — | -$103.79 | 55% 8650-7109 (15759) |
SI sir-upalotCTR | Upavg 73.4¢ | $112.03 | — | -$112.03 | 55% 23888-19304 (43192) |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Upavg 55.2¢ | $113.4 | $60 | -$53.4 | 57% 10339-7761 (18100) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.2¢ | $83.4 | — | -$83.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $30 | $60 | +$30 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 46¢ | $159.21 | $300.37 | +$141.16 | 56% 58073-44827 (102900) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 66.8¢ | $168.79 | $157.98 | -$10.81 | 58% 60547-44207 (104754) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 86.3¢ | $83.38 | $94.3 | +$10.92 | 58% 37847-27088 (64935) |
 ohioism | Downavg 38¢ | $71.51 | $150.06 | +$78.56 | 64% 40110-22937 (63047) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 28.7¢ | $32.67 | — | -$32.67 | 66% 125811-64748 (190559) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 75.1¢ | $43.27 | — | -$43.27 | 64% 23206-12791 (35997) |
Invested
$1,908.46
Value
—
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
56%
14444-11357 (25801)
Invested
$1,477.35
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
57%
70901-53981 (124882)
NIULAI4CTRInvested
$242.67
Value
—
PnL
-$242.67
Record
77%
9405-2826 (12231)
Invested
$649.13
Value
—
PnL
-$649.13
Record
49%
5258-5381 (10639)
Invested
$171.55
Value
—
PnL
-$171.55
Record
66%
112173-58591 (170764)
Invested
$465.47
Value
—
PnL
-$465.47
Record
54%
8028-6737 (14765)
Invested
$490.17
Value
$574.02
PnL
+$83.85
Record
60%
12241-8099 (20340)
Invested
$388.66
Value
—
PnL
-$388.66
Record
55%
7453-6109 (13562)
Invested
$302.78
Value
—
PnL
-$302.78
Record
68%
99525-47913 (147438)
Invested
$258.6
Value
—
PnL
-$258.6
Record
51%
17100-16638 (33738)
Invested
$330.45
Value
—
PnL
-$330.45
Record
55%
17781-14392 (32173)
MayorMamdaniCTRInvested
$201.92
Value
—
PnL
-$201.92
Record
55%
44917-37366 (82283)
Invested
$179.79
Value
—
PnL
-$179.79
Record
57%
12026-9030 (21056)
Invested
$348.76
Value
$388.41
PnL
+$39.66
Record
57%
7881-6054 (13935)
Invested
$164.63
Value
—
PnL
-$164.63
Record
53%
27215-24192 (51407)
Invested
$118.02
Value
—
PnL
-$118.02
Record
52%
90329-84819 (175148)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$103.79
Value
—
PnL
-$103.79
Record
55%
8650-7109 (15759)
Invested
$112.03
Value
—
PnL
-$112.03
Record
55%
23888-19304 (43192)
Invested
$113.4
Value
$60
PnL
-$53.4
Record
57%
10339-7761 (18100)
Both legs:
Invested
$159.21
Value
$300.37
PnL
+$141.16
Record
56%
58073-44827 (102900)
Invested
$168.79
Value
$157.98
PnL
-$10.81
Record
58%
60547-44207 (104754)
Invested
$83.38
Value
$94.3
PnL
+$10.92
Record
58%
37847-27088 (64935)
ohioismInvested
$71.51
Value
$150.06
PnL
+$78.56
Record
64%
40110-22937 (63047)
Invested
$32.67
Value
—
PnL
-$32.67
Record
66%
125811-64748 (190559)
Invested
$43.27
Value
—
PnL
-$43.27
Record
64%
23206-12791 (35997)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $3.6K
NIULAI4
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
CTRUp — $0
antsaslyku
CTRUp — $0
sfkjbsr457
CTRUp — $0
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $574.02
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
gansinimen
CTRUp — $0